Modeling propensity to move after job change using event history analysis and temporal GIS

  • Marie-Hélène VandersmissenEmail author
  • Anne-Marie Séguin
  • Marius Thériault
  • Christophe Claramunt
Original Article


The research presented in this paper analyzes the emergent residential behaviors of individual actors in a context of profound social changes in the work sphere. It incorporates a long-term view in the analysis of the relationships between social changes in the work sphere and these behaviors. The general hypothesis is that social changes produce complex changes in the long-term dynamics of residential location behavior. More precisely, the objective of this paper is to estimate the propensity for professional workers to move house after a change of workplace. Our analysis draws on data from a biographical survey using a retrospective questionnaire that enables a posteriori reconstitution of the familial, professional and residential lifelines of professional workers since their departure from their parents’ home. The survey was conducted in 1996 in the Quebec City Metropolitan Area, which, much like other Canadian cities, has experienced a substantial increase in “unstable” work, even for professionals. The approach is based on event history analysis, a Temporal Geographic Information System and exploratory spatial analysis of model’s residuals. Results indicate that 48.9% of respondents moved after a job change and that the most important factors influencing the propensity to move house after a job change are home tenure (for lone adults as for couple) and number of children (for couples only). We also found that moving is associated with changing neighborhood for owners while tenants or co-tenants tend to stay in the same neighborhood. The probability of moving 1 year after a job change is 0.10 for lone adults and couples while after 2 years, the household structure seems to have an impact: the probability increased to 0.23 for lone adults and to 0.21 for couples. The outcome of this research contributes to furthering our understanding of a familial decision (to move) following a professional event (change of job), controlling for household structure, familial, professional and spatial contexts.


Residential choice behavior Change of workplace Decision-making Event history analysis Spatio-temporal modeling Global and local spatial autocorrelation 

JEL Classification




The authors thank the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Major Collaborative Research Initiative Program (SSHRC/MCRI), Fonds pour la formation de chercheurs et l’aide à la recherche (FCAR) and the Geomatics for Informed Decisions (GEOIDE) Network for their financial support. The authors are grateful for the very helpful and encouraging comments provided by the three anonymous reviewers.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Marie-Hélène Vandersmissen
    • 1
    Email author
  • Anne-Marie Séguin
    • 2
  • Marius Thériault
    • 1
  • Christophe Claramunt
    • 3
  1. 1.Centre de recherche en aménagement et développement (CRAD)Université LavalQuebecCanada
  2. 2.Institut National de Recherche Scientifique, Centre Urbanisation Culture et Société (INRS-UCS)MontrealCanada
  3. 3.Institut de Recherche de l’Ecole NavaleBrest ArméesFrance

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