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Journal of Geographical Systems

, Volume 8, Issue 4, pp 391–410 | Cite as

The ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from Spanish regional unemployment rates

  • Juan Carlos Duque
  • Manuel Artís
  • Raúl Ramos
Original Article

Abstract

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

Keywords

Ecological fallacy Time series Constrained clusters Theil index Unemployment rates 

JEL

O18 E24 C61 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank three anonymous referees and Serge Rey, E. López-Bazo and E. Pons for their helpful comments and suggestions about previous versions of this paper, and Philip Stephens for editing. The usual disclaimer applies. Financial support is gratefully acknowledged from the CICYT SEJ2005-04348/ECON project.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Juan Carlos Duque
    • 1
  • Manuel Artís
    • 2
  • Raúl Ramos
    • 2
  1. 1.Regional Analysis Laboratory (REGAL), Department of GeographySan Diego State UniversitySan DiegoUSA
  2. 2.Grup d’Anàlisi Quantitativa Regional (AQR), Departament d’Econometria, Estadística i Economia EspanyolaUniversitat de BarcelonaBarcelonaSpain

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