Spanish Economic Review

, Volume 11, Issue 1, pp 1–22 | Cite as

On the estimation of the effect of labour participation on fertility

Regular Article

Abstract

In this paper we consider the estimation of the causal effect of female labour market status (participation and employment) on fertility. We focus on the sensitivity of the estimated effect to (i) the assumptions about the exogeneity of labour market status; and (ii) the time interval between the measurement of fertility and employment status. Using Spanish quarterly data, we estimate a switching probit model that accounts for the joint determination of both variables. In order to obtain a behavioural effect of the former on the latter, we look at the timing of conception instead of the timing of birth, and present alternative sets of estimates depending on the accuracy with which conception is measured (yearly or quarterly). Our results show a positive although non-significant effect of participation and employment on the probability of having the first child, once the sample of women who conceive in the same quarter (or one quarter later) in which labour market status is measured and the endogeneity between both variables is accounted for. We find that annual data tend to over-estimate the negative effect of employment or participation on the probability of having a child, but the main biases appear when looking at the effect of participation.

Keywords

Labour market status Fertility Binary choice Endogeneity 

JEL Classification

J11 J13 J21 J22 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Angrist JD (2001) Estimation of limited-dependent variable models with dummy endogenous regressors: simple strategies for empirical practice. J Bus Econ Stat 19: 2–28CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Angrist JD, Evans WN (1998) Children and their parents labor supply: evidence from exogenous variation in family size. Am Econ Rev 88: 450–477Google Scholar
  3. Becker G (1960) An economic analysis of fertility. Demographic and economic change in developed countries. Universities-National Bureau of Economic Research Conference. Series 11 (NBER, Princeton, NJ)Google Scholar
  4. Bloemen H, Kalwij A (2001) Female labor market transitions and the timing of births: a simultaneous snalysis of the effects of schooling. Labour Econ 8: 593–620CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Browning M (1992) Children and household economic behaviour. J Econ Lit 30: 1434–1475Google Scholar
  6. Carrasco R (2001) Binary choice with binary endogenous regressors in panel data: estimating the effect of fertility on female labour participation. J Bus Econ Stat 19: 385–394CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Ermisch JF (1989) Purchased child care, optimal family size and mother’s employment. J Popul Econ 2: 79–102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Fleisher BM, Rhodes GF (1979) Fertility, women’s wage rates, and labour supply. Am Econ Rev 69: 14–24Google Scholar
  9. Francesconi M (2002) A joint dynamic model of fertility and work of married women. J Labour Econ 20: 336–380CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Guiterrez-Domenech M (2007) The impact of labour market on the timing on marriage and births in Spain. J Popul Econ, forthcomingGoogle Scholar
  11. Hyslop DR (1999) State dependence, serial correlation and heterogeneity in intertemporal labour force participation of married women. Econometrica 67: 1255–1294CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Hotz VJ, Klerman JA, Willis RJ (1997) The economics of fertility in developed countries. In: Rosenzweig MR, Stark O (eds) Chapter 7 in Handbook of Population and Family EconomicsGoogle Scholar
  13. Hotz VJ, Miller RA (1988) An empirical analysis of life cycle fertility and female labour supply. Econometrica 56: 91–118CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Kalwij AS (1999) Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions: a microeconometric analysis. Ph.D. dissertation, Tilburg UniversityGoogle Scholar
  15. Kalwij AS (2000) The effects of female employment status on the presence and number of children. J Popul Econ 13: 221–239CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Manski CF, Sandefur GD, McLanahan S, Powers D (1992) Alternative estimates of the effect of family structure during adolescence on high school graduation. J Am Stat Assoc 87: 25–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Mincer J (1963) Market prices, opportunity cost and income effects. In: Christ C et al. (eds) Measurements in Economics: Studies in Mathematical Economics in honour of Yehuda Grunfeld, Standford UniversityGoogle Scholar
  18. Moffit R (1984) Profiles of fertility, labour supply and wages of married women: a complete life cycle model. Rev Econ Stud 51: 263–278CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Shapiro D, Mott FL (1994) Long-term employment and earnings of women in relation to employment behaviour surrounding the first birth. J Human Resour 29: 248–275CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Willis RJ (1973) A new approach to the economic theory of fertility behaviour. J Polit Econ 81: S14–S64CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Wolfe B (1980) Chidbearing and/or labour force participacion: the education connection. Res Popul Econ 2: 365–385Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Departamento de EconomíaUniversidad Carlos III de MadridGetafe, MadridSpain
  2. 2.Departamento de Organización de EmpresasUniversidad de VigoVigoSpain

Personalised recommendations