A qualitative multi-criteria modelling approach to the assessment of electric energy production technologies in Slovenia
- 136 Downloads
A methodological approach to the strategic evaluation of electric energy production technologies in Slovenia is presented. The aim of this work is to make a transparent and reproducible identification of reliable, rational, and environmentally sound production of electric energy in Slovenia by 2050. The approach is based on a qualitative multi-criteria modelling method DEX and consists of three stages: (1) assessment of individual technologies for electricity production, (2) assessment of mixtures of technologies and (3) evaluation of scenarios of shutting-down existing old power plants and constructing the new ones until 2050. Technology alternatives include both conventional and renewable energy sources: coal fired, gas fired, biomass fired, oil fired, nuclear, hydro, wind, and photovoltaic. The results indicate that only mixtures of nuclear, hydro, and gas fired technologies can meet expected energy needs in a sufficiently reliable and rational way.
KeywordsElectric energy production technology Power plants Multi-criteria decision modelling Qualitative model Decision rules Method DEX
This research has been financially supported by the Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Technology of the Republic of Slovenia (Research Voucher No. OPRR/1/1/002-0-MIZKŠ dated September 24, 2012), and GEN energija, d.o.o., and was implemented as a research voucher project in the framework of the EU Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials for the period 2007–2013, priority axis “Competitiveness and research excellence”.
- Bohanec M (2015) DEXi: program for multi-attribute decision making, user’s manual, version 5.00. In: Report IJS DP-11897. Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, http://kt.ijs.si/MarkoBohanec/pub/DEXiManual500
- Bohanec M, Rajkovič V, Bratko I, Zupan B, žnidaršič M (2013) DEX methodology: three decades of qualitative multi-attribute modelling. Informatica 37:49–54Google Scholar
- Hirschberg S, Dones R, Heck T, Burgherr P, Schenler W, Bauer C (2004) Sustainability of electricity supply technologies under German conditions: a comparative evaluation. Paul Scherrer Institut, PSI Bericht Nr. 04-15, ISSN 1019-0643Google Scholar
- Kontić B, Kontić D, Zagorc S, Matko M, Dermol U, Bohanec M, Trdin, N (2014) Ocena vzdržnosti za razvoj energetike v Sloveniji do leta 2030s poudarkom na jedrski tehnologiji (Appraisal of Sustainability of Electrical Energy Production in Slovenia with the Emphasis on Nuclear Technology). In: Report IJS DP-11583. Jožef Stefan Institute, LjubljanaGoogle Scholar
- Legget J (2016) Winning of the carbon war. Latest edition of the e-book, http://www.wcre.de/index.php/publications
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) (2014) Making sustainable energy choices. In: Insights on the Energy/Water/Land nexus. US Department of Energy, http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/62566
- Saaty TL (2008) Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. Int J Serv Sci 1(1):83–98Google Scholar
- Trdin N, Bohanec M (2014). New generation platform for multi-criteria decision making with method DEX. DSS 2.0—supporting decision making with new technologies, supplemental proceedings. In: Phillips-Wren G, Carlsson S, Burstein F, Respício A, Brézillon P (eds) IFIP working group 8.3 digital publications. ISSN 1647–7103, 12Google Scholar
- World Nuclear Association (WNA) (2016) Renewable energy and electricity. Available at http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/energy-and-environment/renewable-energy-and-electricity/
- Žnidaršič M, Bohanec M (2010) Handling uncertainty in DEX methodology. URPDM 2010: Uncertainty and robustness in planning and decision making. In: Antunes CH et al. (eds) Proceedings of the 25th Mini-EURO conference. University of Coimbra, 15–17 AprilGoogle Scholar