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Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy

, Volume 13, Issue 1, pp 133–139 | Cite as

Managing uncertainty in multiple-criteria decision making related to sustainability assessment

  • Gianluca DoriniEmail author
  • Zoran Kapelan
  • Adisa Azapagic
Original Paper

Abstract

In real life, decisions are usually made by comparing different options with respect to several, often conflicting criteria. This requires subjective judgements on the importance of different criteria by DMs and increases uncertainty in decision making. This article demonstrates how uncertainty can be handled in multi-criteria decision situations using Compromise Programming, one of the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Uncertainty is characterised using a probabilistic approach and propagated using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodological approach is illustrated on a case study which compares the sustainability of two options for electricity generation: coal versus biomass. Different models have been used to quantify their sustainability performance for a number of economic, environmental and social criteria. Three cases are considered with respect to uncertainty: (1) no uncertainty, (2) uncertainty in data/models and (3) uncertainty in models and decision-makers’ preferences. The results shows how characterising and propagating uncertainty can help increase the effectiveness of multi-criteria decision making processes and lead to more informed decision.

Keywords

Uncertainty analysis Multi-criteria decision analysis Monte Carlo simulation Compromise programming Sustainability assessment 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This study has been carried out as part of the project “Pollutants in Urban Environment (PUrE)” (grant no. EP/C532651/2), funded by the U.K. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, which is gratefully acknowledged. We are also grateful to the PUrE researchers who have contributed to this study in various ways. The contribution of the PUrE stakeholders is also acknowledged.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Gianluca Dorini
    • 1
    Email author
  • Zoran Kapelan
    • 2
  • Adisa Azapagic
    • 3
  1. 1.DTU Environment - Department of Environmental Engineering MiljoevejKongens LyngbyDenmark
  2. 2.Centre for Water Systems, School of Engineering, Computing and MathematicsUniversity of ExeterExeterUK
  3. 3.School of Chemical Engineering and Analytical ScienceThe University of ManchesterManchesterUK

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