A stability analysis of landslides based on random fields, part II: base circle slope

  • X. P. ZhouEmail author
  • B. Z. Zhu
  • Louis N. Y. Wong
Original Article


In this paper, the stability of base circle slopes is analyzed based on the theory of random fields. The closed-form solution of the safety factor and the failure probability of base circle slopes are obtained using the integration method. The effects of the spatial variation of the mechanical parameters of soils on the stability of base circle slopes are investigated. The mean values of the safety factor and the failure probability of base circle slopes are determined. The effects of spatial correlation length on the failure probability of base circle slopes are studied. The results show that for homogeneous slopes, the accuracy of the vertical integration model is greater than that of the horizontal integration model. For layered slopes, the effectiveness of the horizontal integration method is validated by a Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, the horizontal integration model is more suitable for the layered slopes than the vertical integration model.


Random fields Base circle slopes Failure probability Integration method Safety factor Closed-form solution 



The work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51325903, 51679017) and the Natural Science Foundation Project of CQ CSTC (No. CSTC, cstc2013kjrcljrccj0001, cstc2013jcyjys0005, cstc2015jcyjys0002, cstc2015jcyjys0009, and cstc2016jcyjys0005).


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Coal Mine Disaster Dynamics and ControlChongqing UniversityChongqingPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.School of Civil EngineeringChongqing UniversityChongqingPeople’s Republic of China
  3. 3.Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain AreaChongqingPeople’s Republic of China
  4. 4.Department of Earth Sciencethe University of Hong KongHong KongPeople’s Republic of China

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