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Ecosystems

, Volume 22, Issue 1, pp 77–90 | Cite as

Climatic Suitability Derived from Species Distribution Models Captures Community Responses to an Extreme Drought Episode

  • María Ángeles Pérez NavarroEmail author
  • Gerard Sapes
  • Enric Batllori
  • Josep Maria Serra-Diaz
  • Miguel Angel Esteve
  • Francisco Lloret
Article

Abstract

The differential responses of co-occurring species in rich communities to climate change—particularly to drought episodes—have been fairly unexplored. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to assess changes in species suitability under environmental shifts, but whether they can portray population and community responses is largely undetermined, especially in relation to extreme events. Here we studied a shrubland community in SE Spain because this region constitutes an ecotone between the Mediterranean biome and subtropical arid areas, and it has recently suffered its driest hydrological year on record. We used four different modeling algorithms (Mahalanobis distance, GAM, BRT, and MAXENT) to estimate species’ climatic suitability before (1950–2000) and during the extreme drought. For each SDM, we related species’ climatic suitability with their remaining green canopy as a proxy for species resistance to drought. We consistently found a positive correlation between remaining green canopy and species’ climatic suitability before the event. This relationship supports the hypothesis of a higher vulnerability of populations living closer to their species’ limits of aridity tolerance. Contrastingly, climatic suitability during the drought did not correlate with remaining green canopy, likely because the exceptional episode led to almost zero suitability values. Overall, our approach highlights climatic niche modeling as a robust approach to standardizing and comparing the behavior of different co-occurring species facing strong climatic fluctuations. Although many processes contribute to resistance to climatic extremes, the results confirm the relevance of populations’ position in the species’ climatic niche for explaining sensitivity to climate change.

Keywords

climatic suitability SDMs extreme climatic events drought resistance niche dieback 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The research underlying this work has been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education through a doctoral grant (FPU14/03519) and by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the BIOCLIM project (CGL2015-67419-R). We thank GBIF and WorldClim for making their data freely available online. We are also grateful to our colleagues at the University of Murcia and several friends who helped during field sampling. Finally, we want to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

Supplementary material

10021_2018_254_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (2.3 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (PDF 2367 kb)
10021_2018_254_MOESM2_ESM.pdf (18.7 mb)
Supplementary material 2 (PDF 19165 kb)

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Centre de Recerca Ecologica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF)Universitat Autonoma de BarcelonaBellaterraSpain
  2. 2.Division of Biological SciencesThe University of MontanaMissoulaUSA
  3. 3.Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of BioscienceAarhus UniversityAarhus CDenmark
  4. 4.UMR SilvaAgroParisTech, Université de Lorraine, INRANancyFrance
  5. 5.Department of Ecology and HydrologyUniversity of MurciaMurciaSpain

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