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Climatic Suitability Derived from Species Distribution Models Captures Community Responses to an Extreme Drought Episode

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Abstract

The differential responses of co-occurring species in rich communities to climate change—particularly to drought episodes—have been fairly unexplored. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to assess changes in species suitability under environmental shifts, but whether they can portray population and community responses is largely undetermined, especially in relation to extreme events. Here we studied a shrubland community in SE Spain because this region constitutes an ecotone between the Mediterranean biome and subtropical arid areas, and it has recently suffered its driest hydrological year on record. We used four different modeling algorithms (Mahalanobis distance, GAM, BRT, and MAXENT) to estimate species’ climatic suitability before (1950–2000) and during the extreme drought. For each SDM, we related species’ climatic suitability with their remaining green canopy as a proxy for species resistance to drought. We consistently found a positive correlation between remaining green canopy and species’ climatic suitability before the event. This relationship supports the hypothesis of a higher vulnerability of populations living closer to their species’ limits of aridity tolerance. Contrastingly, climatic suitability during the drought did not correlate with remaining green canopy, likely because the exceptional episode led to almost zero suitability values. Overall, our approach highlights climatic niche modeling as a robust approach to standardizing and comparing the behavior of different co-occurring species facing strong climatic fluctuations. Although many processes contribute to resistance to climatic extremes, the results confirm the relevance of populations’ position in the species’ climatic niche for explaining sensitivity to climate change.

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Acknowledgements

The research underlying this work has been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education through a doctoral grant (FPU14/03519) and by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the BIOCLIM project (CGL2015-67419-R). We thank GBIF and WorldClim for making their data freely available online. We are also grateful to our colleagues at the University of Murcia and several friends who helped during field sampling. Finally, we want to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

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    1. Centre de Recerca Ecologica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain

      María Ángeles Pérez Navarro, Enric Batllori & Francisco Lloret

    2. Division of Biological Sciences, The University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, 59812, USA

      Gerard Sapes

    3. Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, 8000, Aarhus C, Denmark

      Josep Maria Serra-Diaz

    4. UMR Silva, AgroParisTech, Université de Lorraine, INRA, 54000, Nancy, France

      Josep Maria Serra-Diaz

    5. Department of Ecology and Hydrology, University of Murcia, Campus de Espinardo, 30100, Murcia, Spain

      Miguel Angel Esteve

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    1. María Ángeles Pérez Navarro
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    Correspondence to María Ángeles Pérez Navarro.

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    MAPN completed the fieldwork, modelized species’ distributions, analyzed the data, and wrote the first draft. MAE conceived the study and wrote the paper. GS and EB contributed to analyze data and wrote the paper. JMSD wrote the paper and also conceived how to model species distribution. FL conceived the study, analyzed data and wrote the paper.

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    Pérez Navarro, M.Á., Sapes, G., Batllori, E. et al. Climatic Suitability Derived from Species Distribution Models Captures Community Responses to an Extreme Drought Episode. Ecosystems 22, 77–90 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0254-0

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