Ecosystems

, Volume 19, Issue 2, pp 248–270

Potential Species Replacements for Black Ash (Fraxinus nigra) at the Confluence of Two Threats: Emerald Ash Borer and a Changing Climate

  • Louis Iverson
  • Kathleen S. Knight
  • Anantha Prasad
  • Daniel A. Herms
  • Stephen Matthews
  • Matthew Peters
  • Annemarie Smith
  • Diane M. Hartzler
  • Robert Long
  • John Almendinger
Article

Abstract

The emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis; EAB) is causing widespread mortality of ash (Fraxinus spp.) and climate change is altering habitats of tree species throughout large portions of North America. Black ash (F. nigra), a moist-soil species common in the Northwoods of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, USA, is under a double threat of losing habitat from climate change and near annihilation from EAB. Because black ash often occurs in nearly pure stands, planting non-ash species is a management strategy already underway or being planned for thousands of acres. Tools are needed to assist managers in prioritizing sites for early treatment and to select potential species to replace black ash. This study explores the implications of threats to black ash ecosystems using analyses of field data and models to assess both the threats to, and potential replacement species for, black ash in Minnesota. For our analysis we (1) assessed the status of ashes and co-occurring species in forest inventory plots throughout Minnesota; (2) modeled the risk of EAB attack for multiple years in Minnesota; (3) modeled potential impacts of climate change on tree species with current or potential future habitat in Minnesota; (4) evaluated species co-occurring with black ash in plots in Ohio and Michigan, southeast of Minnesota; and (5) synthesized these results to provide a classification for candidate replacement species, both from within Minnesota and from points farther south. Though this process is demonstrated for black ash in Minnesota, the elements to be considered and modeled would be similar for any other location with a pest or pathogen threat for a species which simultaneously faces a changing climate.

Keywords

assisted range expansion invasive insect spread model climate change emerald ash borer multiple forest threats restoration species distribution models 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York (outside the USA) 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Louis Iverson
    • 1
  • Kathleen S. Knight
    • 1
  • Anantha Prasad
    • 1
  • Daniel A. Herms
    • 2
  • Stephen Matthews
    • 1
    • 3
  • Matthew Peters
    • 1
  • Annemarie Smith
    • 4
  • Diane M. Hartzler
    • 2
  • Robert Long
    • 5
  • John Almendinger
    • 6
  1. 1.Northern Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceDelawareUSA
  2. 2.Department of Entomology, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development CenterThe Ohio State UniversityWoosterUSA
  3. 3.School of Natural ResourcesThe Ohio State UniversityColumbusUSA
  4. 4.US Green Building CouncilCentral Ohio ChapterColumbusUSA
  5. 5.Northern Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceIrvineUSA
  6. 6.Division of ForestryMinnesota Department of Natural ResourcesGrand RapidsUSA

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