Statistical validation of a voyage simulation model for ocean-going ships using satellite AIS data

  • Michio FujiiEmail author
  • Hirotada Hashimoto
  • Yuuki Taniguchi
  • Eiichi Kobayashi
Original article


In the second generation intact stability criteria being discussed by the International Maritime Organization, a ship can be operated even though it fails to pass the vulnerability criteria of dynamic stability failures, as far as operational limitations are imposed to guarantee the required safety level of the ship. This is a new concept that has not been implemented in previous intact stability criteria. Voyage simulation is the most effective assessment tool to facilitate the discussion of the new operational limitations, and its model needs to be developed and validated for ocean-going ships in various cases. In this study, statistical validation of a voyage simulation model is attempted by comparison against numerous actual voyages collected from satellite automatic identification system data. The validation results showed that the simulated results of navigation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic are similar to those of actual voyages. Furthermore, to improve the reproducibility of the simulation in rough seas, a wave limit criterion was derived by comparing the probability density of the actually encountered and occurred wave heights of the navigable area. Introducing the wave limit criterion improved the correlation of the encountered wave height during the voyage.


Voyage simulation Satellite AIS Statistical validation Wave limit criterion Operational limitations Second generation intact stability criteria 



This work was supported by the research activity of the Goal-Based Stability Criterion Project of Japan Ship Technology Research Association in the fiscal year of 2017, funded by the Nippon Foundation. This study was also supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant number 17H03493 and the Fundamental Research Developing Association for Shipbuilding and Offshore. The authors are grateful to the Research Initiative for Oceangoing Ships (RIOS) under the aegis of the Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Division of Global Architecture, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University.


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Copyright information

© The Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers (JASNAOE) 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Marine Technical College, Japan Agency of Maritime Education and Training for SeafarersAshiyaJapan
  2. 2.Graduate School of Maritime Sciences, Kobe UniversityKobe, HyogoJapan

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