# On the implications of declining population growth for regional migration

- 272 Downloads

## Abstract

Although many advanced economies nowadays experience decreasing populations, migration in models of economic growth has so far been almost exclusively analyzed for the case of non-negative population growth rates. This paper considers decreasing and possibly negative population growth rates in two two-sector growth models. As long as preferences are homothetic, neither a decrease in population growth rates nor an actual population decline does induce migration in either direction. Introducing quasi-linear preferences implies that a decline in population growth leads to migration from the rural to the industrial region. A complete depopulation of the rural region takes place if the population growth rate falls short of minus the rate of physical capital depreciation. These results reinforce pessimistic expectations about a rural exodus.

## Keywords

(Negative) population growth Migration Two-sector growth model Quasi-linear preferences## JEL Classification

J61 O41 R11## Notes

### Acknowledgements

I would like to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. Any remaining shortcomings are my own.

## References

- Barro RJ, Sala-i-Martin X (2003) Economic growth, 2nd edn. MIT Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Bosch A, Mas-Colell A, Razin A (1973) Instantaneous and non-instantaneous adjustment to equilibrium in two-sector growth models. Metroeconomica 25:105–118CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Brinkmann G (2009) Die Zukunft der deutschen Sozialversicherung, Diskussionspapier Nr. 139-09, Universität SiegenGoogle Scholar
- Burmeister E (1980) Capital theory and dynamics. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Christiaans T (2004) Types of balanced growth. Econ Lett 82:253–258CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Christiaans T (2008) International trade and industrialization in a non-scale model of economic growth. Struct Change Econ Dyn 19:221–236CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Christiaans T (2011) Semi-endogenous growth when population is decreasing. Econ Bull 31:2667–2673Google Scholar
- Christiaans T (2012) A non-scale growth model of migration and structural change. In: Lv C, Zhang S, Fan Y, Zhang H (eds) Conference proceedings on transformation of resource-based economy and internationalization of higher education. Aussino, Riverwood, pp 266–275Google Scholar
- Eicher TS, Turnovsky SJ (1999) Non-scale models of economic growth. Econ J 109:394–415CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Ferrara M (2011) An AK Solow–Swan model with a non-positive rate of population growth. Appl Math Sci 5:1241–1244Google Scholar
- Gáková Z, Dijkstra L (2010) Does population decline lead to economic decline in EU rural regions? Regional focus-Eurpean Union-Regional policy, 01, 2010, BrusselGoogle Scholar
- Glomm G (1992) A model of growth and migration. Can J Econ 25:901–922CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Göddecke-Stellmann J (2011) Renaissance der Großstädte – eine Zwischenbilanz. BBSR-Berichte KOMPAKT 9/2011, Bundesinstitut für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung, BonnGoogle Scholar
- Gorman WM (1953) Community preference fields. Econometrica 21:63–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Lucas RE Jr (2004) Life earnings and rural-urban migration. J Polit Econ 112:S29–S59CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Lundborg P, Segerstrom PS (2002) The growth and welfare effects of international mass migration. J Int Econ 56:177–204CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Mas-Colell A, Razin A (1973) A model of intersectoral migration and growth. Oxf Econ Pap 25:72–79CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Matsuyama K (1992) Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth. J Econ Theory 58:317–334CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Milbert A (2015) Wachsen oder schrumpfen? BBSR-Analysen Kompakt 12/2015. Bundesinstitut für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung, BonnGoogle Scholar
- Premer M, Walz U (1994) Divergent regional development, factor mobility, and non-traded goods. Reg Sci Urban Econ 24:707–722CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Reher DS (2007) Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues. Eur J Popul 23:189–207CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Reichlin P, Rustichini A (1998) Diverging patterns with endogenous labor migration. J Econ Dyn Control 22:703–728CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Ritschl A (1985) On the stability of the steady-state when population is decreasing. J Econ 45:161–170CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Samuelson PA (1975) The optimum growth rate for population. Int Econ Rev 16:531–538CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Sasaki H (2011) Trade, non-scale growth and uneven development. Metroeconomica 62:691–711CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Sasaki H, Hoshida K (2016) The effects of negative population growth: an analysis using a semiendogenous R&D growth model. Macroecon Dyn. doi: 10.1017/S1365100515000991
- Steger TM (2000) Economic growth with subsistence consumption. J Dev Econ 62:343–361CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Strulik H (2010) A note on economic growth with subsistence consumption. Macroecon Dyn 14:763–771CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014) World urbanization prospects: the 2014 revision, highlights st/esa/ser.a/352Google Scholar
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015) World population prospects: the 2015 revision, key findings and advance tables. Working paper no. esa/p/wp.241Google Scholar
- Uzawa H (1961) On a two-sector model of economic growth. Rev Econ Stud 29:40–47CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Uzawa H (1963) On a two-sector model of economic growth ii. Rev Econ Stud 30:105–118CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wong KY, Yip CK (1999) Industrialization, economic growth, and international trade. In: Choi EK, Jensen BS (eds) Economic growth and international trade. Blackwell, Oxford, pp 164–182Google Scholar