The analysis of temperatures in this historical moment characterized by human-induced climate changes is becoming increasingly important. This study aims to accurately assess the change in temperatures over the past 50 years through the evaluation of 3 climatological standard normals. The pilot project was developed on the Marche region, an area on the Adriatic coast of Central Italy, and analyses climate change from a spatial point of view making extensive use of GIS software. The second purpose of this research is the evaluation of the relationship between the variation in the production quantities of wine grapes, a crop of value for the economy of this region, and the changes in average temperature. Obviously this study aims to provide a starting point for research that can also be applied to other territories, depending on the valuable crops possessed. The analysis showed a rise in temperatures from the past to the present; in fact comparing the period 1971–1990 with 2001–2020, there has been an increase of more than 0.5 °C on average although comparing the years 1981–1990 and 2011–2020, it has very weakened with a growth of only 0.1 °C. In this context, the influence that temperature can exert on Vitis vinifera has been evaluated with an inverse correlation. In fact, a higher temperature leads especially in all months except September to a decrease in production. This study could in the future calculate the optimal development temperatures for the different Vitis vinifera cultivars, not through the study of phenological phases but through production data. This analysis makes it increasingly clear how climate change can have enormous effects on the economy and on human life.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.
Buy single article
Instant unlimited access to the full article PDF.
Price includes VAT for USA
Subscribe to journal
Immediate online access to all issues from 2019. Subscription will auto renew annually.
This is the net price. Taxes to be calculated in checkout.
Akbari H, Cartalis C, Kolokotsa D, Muscio A, Pisello AL, Rossi F et al (2016) Local climate change and urban heat island mitigation techniques–the state of the art. J Civ Eng Manag 22(1):1–16. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2015.1111934
Alexandersson H (1986) A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Int J Climatol 6(6):661–675. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370060607
Appiotti F, Krželj M, Russo A, Ferretti M, Bastianini M, Marincioni F (2014) A multidisciplinary study on the effects of climate change in the northern Adriatic sea and the Marche region (Central Italy). Reg Environ Chang 14(5):2007–2024. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0451-5
Arguez A, Durre I, Applequist S, Vose RS, Squires MF, Yin X et al (2012) NOAA's 1981–2010 US climate normals: an overview. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(11):1687–1697. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00197.1
Colombo T, Pelino V, Vergari S, Cristofanelli P, Bonasoni P (2007) Study of temperature and precipitation variations in Italy based on surface instrumental observations. Glob Planet Chang 57(3–4):308–318. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.12.003
Déqué M, Jones RG, Wild M, Giorgi F, Christensen JH, Hassell DC et al (2005) Global high resolution versus limited area model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results. Clim Dyn 25(6):653–670. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0052-1
Domroes M, El-Tantawi A (2005) Recent temporal and spatial temperature changes in Egypt. Int J Climatol 25(1):51–63. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1114
Duchêne E, Schneider C (2005) Grapevine and climatic changes: a glance at the situation in Alsace. Agron Sustain Dev 25(1):93–99
Fraga H, Malheiro AC, Moutinho-Pereira J, Santos JA (2013) Future scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe: ensemble projections and uncertainties. Int J Biometeorol 57(6):909–925. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0617-8
Fratianni S, Acquaotta F (2017) The climate of Italy. In: Soldati M, Marchetti M (eds) Landscapes and landforms of Italy. World Geomorphological Landscapes. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26194-2_4
Gentilucci M, Bisci C, Burt P, Fazzini M, Vaccaro C (2018a) Interpolation of rainfall through polynomial regression in the Marche region (Central Italy). In: Mansourian A, Pilesjö P, Harrie L, van Lammeren R (eds) Geospatial technologies for all, AGILE, vol 2018. Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography. Springer, Cham, pp 55–73. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-78208-9_3
Gentilucci M, Barbieri M, Burt P, D’Aprile F (2018b) Preliminary data validation and reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in Central Italy. Geosciences 8(6):202. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8060202
Gentilucci M, Barbieri M, Burt P (2018d) Climatic variations in Macerata Province (Central Italy). Water 10(8):1104. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10081104
Giannaros TM, Melas D (2012) Study of the urban heat island in a coastal Mediterranean City: the case study of Thessaloniki, Greece. Atmos Res 118:103–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.06.006
Giorgi F, Lionello P (2008) Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Glob Planet Chang 63(2–3):90–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005
Goovaerts P (1998) Ordinary cokriging revisited. Math Geol 30(1)
Johnston K, Ver Hoef JM, Krivoruchko K, Lucas N (2001) Using ArcGIS geostatistical analyst, vol 380. Esri, Redlands
Johnston K, Ver Hoef JM, Krivoruchko K, Lucas N (2003) ArcGis 9. Using ArcGis Geostatistical Analyst, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA
Kürbis K, Mudelsee M, Tetzlaff G, Brázdil R (2009) Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from Central Europe. Theor Appl Climatol 98(1–2):187–195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0094-5
Labudová L, Faško P, Ivaňáková G (2015) Changes in climate and changing climate regions in Slovakia. Moravian Geographical Reports 23(3):71–82. https://doi.org/10.1515/mgr-2015-0019
Lionello P, Malanotte-Rizzoli P, Boscolo R (eds) (2006) Mediterranean climate variability (Vol. 4). Elsevier
Malheiro AC, Santos JA, Fraga H, Pinto JG (2010) Climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Europe. Clim Res 43(3):163–177. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00918
Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye T, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao ZC (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) IPCC, 2007: climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Moberg A, Jones PD (2005) Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901–99. Int J Climatol 25(9):1149–1171. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1163
Nendel C (2010) Grapevine bud break prediction for cool winter climates. Int J Biometeorol 54(3):231–241
Oliver MA, Webster R (2015) Basic steps in geostatistics: the variogram and kriging, vol 106. Springer, New York
Piani C, Haerter JO, Coppola E (2010) Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe. Theor Appl Climatol 99(1–2):187–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0134-9
Rathod IM, Aruchamy S (2010) Spatial analysis of rainfall variation in Coimbatore district Tamil Nadu using GIS. Int J Geomatics Geosci 1(2):106
Salinger MJ (2005) Climate variability and change: past, present and future—an overview. In: Increasing climate variability and change. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 9–29
Schabenberger O, Gotway CA (2017) Statistical methods for spatial data analysis. CRC Press
Sparks TH, Aasa A, Huber K, Wadsworth R (2009) Changes and patterns in biologically relevant temperatures in Europe 1941–2000. Clim Res 39(3):191–207. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00814
Spina R, Stortini S, Fusari R, Scuterini C, Di Marino M (2002) Caratterizzazione climatologica delle Marche: campo medio della temperatura per il periodo 1950–200. Centro di Ecologia e Climatologia - Osservatorio Geofisico Sperimentale, Macerata
Tadić MP (2010) Gridded Croatian climatology for 1961–1990. Theor Appl Climatol 102(1–2):87–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0237-3
Walsh S (2012) A summary of climate averages for Ireland. Met Eireann, Dublin
Wang YQ (2014) MeteoInfo: GIS software for meteorological data visualization and analysis. Meteorol Appl 21(2):360–368. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1345
WMO (2017) WMO Guidelines on the Calculation of Climate Normals, WMO-No.1203, Geneva 2, Switzerland
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
About this article
Cite this article
Gentilucci, M., Materazzi, M., Pambianchi, G. et al. Temperature variations in Central Italy (Marche region) and effects on wine grape production. Theor Appl Climatol (2020) doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03089-4