Advertisement

Temporal variability of the highest and the lowest monthly precipitation totals in the Polish Carpathian Mountains (1881–2018)

  • 27 Accesses

Abstract

Extreme climatic phenomena include prolonged heavy precipitation as well as long-lasting absence thereof. They are a consequence of weather anomalies and have many dangerous effects such as floods and droughts. This study aims to characterise the annual and long-term variability of the highest (Pmax) and lowest (Pmin) monthly precipitation totals and their relationship with atmospheric circulation. To achieve the above, use is made of 14 secular series (1881–2018) of precipitation from the Polish Carpathians and the calendar of circulation types over southern Poland prepared by T. Niedźwiedź (1981, 2019). On account of the variation in their relief, the Polish Carpathians are an area with a very great temporal and spatial variability in precipitation, ranging from complete absence to 500 mm per month. Pmax demonstrates a more noticeable annual frequency pattern, with a predominance in summer months, while Pmin shows smaller variations in individual months. Both Pmax and Pmin are characterised by irregular fluctuations in precipitation totals, with no statistically significant trend in their changes, which reflects the absence of a trend as regards overall precipitation volumes in this area. The study confirms an influence of the direction of air mass advection and (anti)cyclonicity of flow on Pmax and Pmin.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant unlimited access to the full article PDF.

US$ 39.95

Price includes VAT for USA

Subscribe to journal

Immediate online access to all issues from 2019. Subscription will auto renew annually.

US$ 199

This is the net price. Taxes to be calculated in checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16

References

  1. Alexandersson H (1986) A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. J Climatol 6:661–675

  2. Barry RG, Carleton AM (2001) Synoptic and dynamic climatology. Routledge, London, New York

  3. Bissolli P, Friedrich K, Rapp J, Ziese M (2011) Flooding in eastern central Europe in May 2010 – reasons, evolution and climatological assessment. Weather 66(6:147–153

  4. Brázdil R, Trnka M, Dobrovolný P, Chromá K, Hlavinka P, Žalud Z (2009) Variability of droughts in the Czech Republic, 1881–2006. Theor Appl Climatol 97(3–4):297–315

  5. Cebulska M (2018) Periods without precipitation and with low precipitation in the Polish Carpathians in the years of 1984–2013. Pol J Agron 34:52–61

  6. Cebulska M, Twardosz R (2010) Temporal variability of the lowest monthly precipitation in the upper Vistula river (1901-2000). Przegląd Geofizyczny 3-4:175–188

  7. Cebulska M, Twardosz R (2012) Temporal variability of maximum monthly precipitation totals in the Polish Western Carpathian Mts during the period 1951–2005. Prace Geograficzne 128:123–134

  8. Daňhelka J and Šercl P (2011) Floods in the Czech Republic in 2010, Meteorologicke Zpravy 64(1), 4–9. (in Czech, with an English abstract)

  9. EDO. 2015. Short-term outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets in 2015 and 2016. Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission. https://ec.europa. eu/agriculture/sites/agriculture/files/ markets-and-prices/short-term-outlook/ pdf/2015-11_en.pdf (accessed 2 February 2019)

  10. Fal B, Bogdanowicz E, Dobrzyńska I (2002) The flood in the year 2001: a brief description. IMGW, Gospodarka Wodna 2:52–60 in Polish with English summary

  11. Falzoi S, Gleeson E, Lambkin K, Zimmermann J, Marwaha R, O'Hara R, Green S, Fratianni S (2019) Analysis of the severe drought in Ireland in 2018. Weather 74(11):368–373

  12. Hellmann G (1906) Die Niederschläge in den Norddeutschen Stromgebieten, Z weiter Band. Tabellen I, Berlin

  13. Kašpar M, Müller M, Pecho J (2013) Comparison of meteorological conditions during May and August 2010 floods in Central Europe. AUC Geographica 48:27–34

  14. Kholiavchuk D, Cebulska M (2019) The highest monthly precipitation in the area of the Ukrainian and the Polish Carpathian Mountains in the period from1984 to 2013. Theor Appl Climatol 138(3–4):1615–1628

  15. Lamb HH (1972) British Isles weather types and a register of the daily sequence of circulation patterns 1861–1971, Geophysical Memoirs 16(116), London

  16. Łupikasza E, Niedźwiedź T, Pinskwar I, Ruiz-Villanueva V and Kundzewicz ZW (2016) Observed changes in air temperature and precipitation and relationship between them, in the Upper Vistula Basin. In: Kundzewicz Z, Stoffel M, Niedźwiedź T, Wyżga B (eds) Flood Risk in the Upper Vistula Basin. GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences. Springer, Cham., 155–188

  17. Maciejewski M, Ostojski MS, Walczykiewicz T (2011) The Vistula basin, flood monograph May–June 2010. IMGW-PIB, Warszawa (in Polish with English summary)

  18. Maj S (2015) On the 75 anniversary of Alpine Meteorological Observatory at Kasprowy Wierch in Polish Tatra (first years). Przegląd Geofizyczny 60(1–2):77–85

  19. Migała K, Urban G, Tomczynski K (2016) Long-term air temperature variation in the Karkonosze mountains according to atmospheric circulation. Theor Appl Climatol 125(1):337–351

  20. Mudelsee M, Börngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grünewald U (2004) Extreme floods in Central Europe over the past 500 years: role of cyclone pathway ‘Zugastrasse Vb’. J Geophys Res 109:D23101. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005034

  21. Nachlik E and Kundzewicz ZW (2016) History of floods on the upper Vistula. [In:] Kundzewicz Z, Stoffel M, Niedźwiedź T, Wyżga B (eds) Flood Risk in the Upper Vistula Basin. GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences. Springer, Cham, 279–292

  22. Niedźwiedź T (1981) Synoptic situations and its influence on spatial differentiation of selected climatic elements in upper Vistula basin, vol 58. Rozprawy Habilitacyjne UJ, Kraków (in Polish with English summary)

  23. Niedźwiedź T (2019) Catalogue of synoptic situations and circulation indices in the upper Vistula river basin (1873–2007). Computer file available at Department of Climatology, University of Silesia, ul. Będzińska 60, PL 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland: tadeusz.niedzwiedz@us.edu.pl

  24. Niedźwiedź T and Obrębska-Starklowa B (1991), Klimat, [In:] I. Dynowska, M. Maciejowski (eds), The Upper Vistula basin Wydawnictwo PWN, 68-84. (in Polish)

  25. Niedźwiedź T, Twardosz R, Walanus A (2009) Long-term variability of precipitation series in east central Europe in relation to circulation patterns. Theor Appl Climatol 98(3–4):337–350

  26. Niedźwiedź T, Łupikasza E, Pińskwar I, Kundzewicz ZW, Stoffel M, Małarzewski Ł (2015) Variability of high rainfalls and related synoptic situations causing heavy floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains. Theor Appl Climatol 11:273–284

  27. Paszyński J and Niedźwiedź T (1999), Klimat, [in:] L. Starkel (ed.) Polish geography. The natural environment. Warszawa, Wyd Nauk PWN, 288-342.(in Polish)

  28. Schönwiese CD, Grieser J, Trömel S (2003) Secular change of extreme monthly precipitation in Europe. Theor Appl Climatol 75:245–250

  29. Sinclair VA, Mikkola J, Rantanen M, Räisänen J (2019) The summer 2018 heatwave in Finland. Weather 74(11):403–409

  30. Trömel S, Schönwiese CD (2007) Probability change of extreme precipitation observed from 1901 to 2000 in Germany. Theor Appl Climatol 87:29–39

  31. Twardosz R (2007) Diurnal variation of precipitation frequency in the warm half of the year according to circulation types in Kraków South Poland. Theor Appl Climatol. 89:229–238

  32. Twardosz R (2009) Analysis of hourly precipitation characteristics in Kraków, Southern Poland, using a classification of circulation types. Hydrol Res 40:553–563

  33. Twardosz R (2010) An analysis of diurnal variations of heavy hourly precipitation in Kraków using a classification of circulation types over southern Poland. Phys Chem Earth 35:456–461

  34. Twardosz R (2019) Anomalously warm months in 2018 in Poland in relation to circulation patterns. Weather 74(11):374–382

  35. Twardosz R, Cebulska M (2010) Observations and measurements of precipitation in the Polish Province of Galicia in the nineteenth century, [in:] R. Przybylak et al. (eds.), The Polish climate in the European context: an historical overview, Springer Science + Business Media B.V., 457-471. DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3167-9_23)

  36. Twardosz R, Cebulska M, Walanus A (2016) Anomalously heavy monthly and seasonal precipitation in the Polish Carpathian Mountains and their foreland during the years 1881-2010. Theor Appl Climatol 126:323–337

  37. van Bebber WJ (1891) Die Zugstrassen der barometrischen Minima. Meteorol Z 8:361–366

  38. Walanus A, Cebulska M, Twardosz R (2016) A model for estimating rains’ area, using the dependence of the time correlation of sites’ monthly precipitation totals on the distance between sites. Theor Appl Climatol 24(3):13–918

  39. Woźniak A (2012) Precipitation in 2010 in Cracow on the background of multi-year 1863-2010. Przegląd Geofizyczny 3-4:407–420 (in Polish with English summary)

  40. Woźniak A (2013) Precipitation in the Polish Carpathian Mountains in 2010 compared to the period 1881–2010. Prace Geograficzne 133:35–48 (in Polish with English summary)

  41. Wypych A, Ustrnul Z, Czekierda D, Palarz A, Sulikowska A (2018a) Extreme precipitation events in the Polish Carpathians and their synoptic determinants. Időjárás 122(2):145–158

  42. Wypych A, Ustrnul Z, Schmatz DR (2018b) Long-term variability of air temperature and precipitation conditions in the Polish Carpathians. J Mt Sci 15(2):237–253

  43. Żmudzka E (2011) Contemporary climate changes in the high mountain part of the Tatras. Prace i Studia Geograficzne 47:217–226

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank Mr. Paweł Pilch and Dr. Martin Cahn for reviewing the English.

Author information

Correspondence to Robert Twardosz.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Twardosz, R., Cebulska, M. Temporal variability of the highest and the lowest monthly precipitation totals in the Polish Carpathian Mountains (1881–2018). Theor Appl Climatol (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03079-1

Download citation