Advertisement

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 138, Issue 3–4, pp 1767–1783 | Cite as

Spatio-temporal variations of precipitation extremes in Hanjiang River Basin, China, during 1960–2015

  • Zhenxiong Qin
  • Tao PengEmail author
  • Vijay P. Singh
  • Min Chen
Original Paper

Abstract

Under the background of global warming, precipitation extremes are the main reasons for the cause of drought-flood disasters at local scales. Regional evaluations on the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation extremes are needed for comprehensively understanding the precipitation-related natural disasters. In this study, ten extreme precipitation indices from 17 meteorological stations in the Hanjiang River Basin, China, were computed and their spatial and temporal variations were analyzed using linear tendency method, based on daily precipitation data for the period of 1960–2015. Results indicated that consecutive dry days, number of heaviest  precipitation days, maximum 1-day precipitation, very wet day precipitation, extremely wet day precipitation, and simple precipitation intensity index exhibited non-significant increasing trends. Consecutive wet days, number of heavy  precipitation days, maximum 5-day precipitation, and total wet day precipitation exhibited non-significant decreasing trends. Using Mann-Kendall test, cumulative anomaly method, and moving t test for cross-validation, an abrupt increase was detected in 1978 for both very wet day precipitation and extremely wet day precipitation and for both these two indices, there were two significant periodic variation cycles, i.e., 1–2 years and 4 years, and in addition, extremely wet day precipitation had a change cycle of 8 years. The cross-wavelet transform method suggested that Pacific Decadal Oscillations and Sea Surface Temperature might be the two driving factors of extreme precipitation variation. The changing trends of precipitation extremes showed regional differences, but the stations with significant trends were not clustered. All the indices were highly correlated with each other, except for the number of consecutive dry days and consecutive wet days. The contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation revealed a non-significant increase in the study area. There were negative correlations between most of the indices and elevation with high level of significance. Changes of large-scale atmospheric circulation showed an increasing geopotential height and a weakened summer monsoon and had an impact on the variations of extreme precipitation.

Notes

Acknowledgments

Our special gratitude is also given to the editor and anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions which have significantly improved quality of this manuscript.

Funding information

This study was jointly founded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2017YFC0405603), Major Key Technologies of Hydrometeorology of Hydropower Engineering (No. DJ-ZDZX-2016-02), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41807513).

References

  1. Afifi AA, Azen SP (1979) Statistical analysis: a computer oriented approach. Academic PressGoogle Scholar
  2. Aguilar E, Peterson TC, Obando P, Frutos R, Retana JA, Solera M, Soley J, García I, Araujo RM, Santos A (2005) Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961-2003. J Geophys Res Atmos 110:D23107.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3619 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Aguilar E, Brunet M, Barry AA, Ekang L, Fernandes A, Massoukina M, Mbah J, Mhanda A, Nascimento DJD, Peterson TC (2009) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western Central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955–2006. J Geophys Res Atmos 114:D02115.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank A, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 111:D05109.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Beecham S, Chowdhury RK (2010) Temporal characteristics and variability of point rainfall: a statistical and wavelet analysis. Int J Climatol 30(3):458–473.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1901 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chen H, Guo S, Xu C-Y, Singh VP (2007) Historical temporal trends of hydroclimatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin. J Hydrol 344(3):171–184.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.06.034 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Frei C, Davies HC, Gurtz J, Schär C (2000) Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe. Integr Assess 1(4):281–300.  https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018983226334 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Frich P (1999) REWARD: A Nordic Collaborative Project. Annex of meeting of the joint CCl/CLIVAR Task Group on Climate Indices, Bracknell, UK, 2–4 September 1998. In: Folland CK, Horton EB, Scholefield PR (eds) World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme, WCDMP-No.37, WMO-TD No.930. World Meteorological Organization, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  9. Gao T, Xie L (2014) Study on progress of the trends and physical causes of extreme precipitation in China during the last 50 years. Adv Earth Science 29(5):577–589.  https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.05.0577 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Gao T, Xie L (2016) Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River Basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s. Glob Planet Chang 147:106–124.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.016
  11. Gemmer M, Becker S, Jiang T (2004) Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 1951–2002. Theor Appl Climatol 77(1–2):39–45.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-003-0018-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Gong D, Ho CH (2002) Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s. Geophys Res Lett 29(10):78-1–78-4.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2001gl014523 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Gong D, Yang J, Kim SJ, Gao Y, Guo D, Zhou T, Hu M (2011) Spring Arctic oscillation-east Asian summer monsoon connection through circulation changes over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 37(11–12):2199–2216.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1041-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Goossens CH, Berger A (1986) Annual and seasonal climatic variations over the northern hemisphere and Europe during the last century. Ann Geophys 4:385–400Google Scholar
  15. Groisman PY, Knight RW, Easterling DR, Karl TR, Hegerl GC, Razuvaev VN (2005) Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J Clim 18(9):1326–1350.  https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3339.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Huang J, Sun S, Zhang J (2013) Detection of trends in precipitation during 1960–2008 in Jiangxi Province, Southeast China. Theor Appl Climatol 114(1–2):237–251.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0831-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Jiang R, Xie J, Zhao Y, He H, He G (2017) Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in Shaanxi Province under climate change. Theor Appl Climatol 130(3–4):831–845.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1910-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Hegerl GC (2007) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J Clim 20(8):1419–1444.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4066.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Klein Tank A, Peterson T, Quadir D, Dorji S, Zou X, Tang H, Santhosh K, Joshi U, Jaswal A, Kolli R (2006) Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and South Asia. J Geophys Res Atmos 111:D16105.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006316 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Koutsoyiannis D (2004) Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: I. theoretical investigation. Hydrol Sci J 49(4):575–590.  https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.49.4.575.54430 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Kunkel KE (2003) North American trends in extreme precipitation. Nat Hazards 29(2):291–305.  https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023694115864 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Li S, Gu S, Liu W, Han H, Zhang Q (2008) Water quality in relation to land use and land cover in the upper Han River basin, China. Catena 75(2):216–222.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2008.06.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Liebmann B, Vera CS, Carvalho LM,  Camilloni IA, Hoerling MP, Allured D, Barros VR, Báez J, and Bidegain M (2004) An observed trend in Central South American precipitation. J Clim 17(22):4357–4367.  https://doi.org/10.1175/3205.1
  24. Liu W, Zhang M, Wang S, Wang B, Li F, Che Y (2013) Changes in precipitation extremes over Shaanxi Province, northwestern China, during 1960-2011. Quat Int 313-314:118–129.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2013.06.033 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259.  https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Nakken M (1999) Wavelet analysis of rainfall-runoff variability isolating climatic from anthropogenic patterns. Environ Model Softw 14(4):283–295.  https://doi.org/10.1016/s1364-8152(98)00080-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. New M, Hewitson B, Stephenson DB, Tsiga A, Kruger A, Manhique A, Gomez B, Coelho CAS, Masisi DN, Kululanga E (2006) Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over Southern and West Africa. J Geophys Res Atmos 111:D14102.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006289 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Pachauri R, Reisinger A (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  29. Schmocker-Fackel P, Naef F (2010) More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in Switzerland since 1850. J Hydrol 381(1):1–8.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.022 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Sen Roy S, Balling RC Jr (2004) Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India. Int J Climatol 24:457–466.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.995 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Su B, Jiang T, Ren GY, Chen ZH (2006) Observed trends of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960 to 2004. Adv Clim Chang Res 2(1):9–14.  https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.16731719.2007.z1.009 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Su B, Gemmer M, Jiang T, Ren G (2007) Probability distribution of precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin during 1960–2005. Adv Clim Chang Res 3(4):208–213Google Scholar
  33. Su B, Gemmer M, Jiang T (2008) Spatial and temporal variation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin. Quat Int 186(1):22–31.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2007.09.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Su B, Kundzewicz ZW, Jiang T (2009) Simulation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin using Wakeby distribution. Theor Appl Climatol 96(3–4):209–219.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0025-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Sun J, Wang H, Yuan W (2009) A possible mechanism for the co-variability of the boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation and the Yangtze River valley summer rainfall. Int J Climatol 29(9):1276–1284.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1773 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Sundaram S, Yin QZ, Berger A, Muri H (2012) Impact of ice sheet induced North Atlantic oscillation on East Asian summer monsoon during an interglacial 500,000 years ago. Clim Dyn 39(5):1093–1105.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1213-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Wang B, Zhang M, Wei J, Wang S, Li S, Ma Q, Li X, Pan S (2013a) Changes in extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang, Northwest China, during 1960-2009. Quat Int 298:141–151.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.09.010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Wang B, Zhang M, Wei J, Wang S, Li X, Li S, Zhao A, Li X, Fan J (2013b) Changes in extreme precipitation over Northeast China, 1960-2011. Quat Int 298:177–186.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2013.01.025 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Wang H, Shao Z, Gao T, Zou T, Liu J, Yuan H (2016) Extreme precipitation event over the Yellow Sea western coast: is there a trend? Quat Int 441:1–17.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.014 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Yang W, Zhang L, Shan L, Chen X, Yang Y (2015) Spatiotemporal distribution features of extreme hydrological events in the Hanjiang River Basin. Prog Inquis Mutat Clim 11(1):15–21.  https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.01.003 (in Chinese) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Yuan Z, Yang Z, Yan D, Yin J (2015) Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China. Theor Appl Climatol 127(1–2):393–407.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Zhai P, Zhang X, Wan H, Pan X (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18(7):1096–1108.  https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-3318.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Zhang Q, Jiang T, Gemmer M, Becker S (2005a) Precipitation, temperature and discharge analysis from 1951 to 2002 in the Yangtze Catchment, China. Hydrol Sci J 50(1):65–80.  https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.50.1.65.56338 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Zhang X, Aguilar E, Sensoy S, Melkonyan H, Tagiyeva U, Ahmed N, Kutaladze N, Rahimzadeh F, Taghipour A, Hantosh TH (2005b) Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J Geophys Res Atmos 110:D22104.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006181 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Zhang Q, Xu C–Y, Zhang Z, Chen YD, Liu C, Lin H (2008) Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960–2005 in the Yangtze River Basin and possible association with large–scale circulation. J Hydrol 353(3–4):215–227.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.11.023
  46. Zhang Q, Xu C–Y, Zhang Z, Chen X, Han Z (2010) Precipitation extremes in a karst region: a case study in the Guizhou Province, Southwest China. Theor Appl Climatol 101(1–2):53–65.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0203-0
  47. Zhang Q, Li J, Singh VP, Xu C-Y (2013) Copula-based spatio-temporal patterns of precipitation extremes in China. Int J Climatol 33(5):1140–1152.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3499 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Zhou T, Gong D, Li J, Li B (2009) Detecting and understanding the multi–decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon recent progress and state of affairs. Meteor Z 18(4):455–467.  https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0396 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Zhu Y, Ding Y, Xu H (2007) The decadal relationship between atmospheric heat source of winter and spring snow over Tibetan Plateau and rainfall in East China. Acta Meteorol Sin 65(6):946–958.  https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2007.089 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.College of Hydraulic and Environmental EngineeringChina Three Gorges UniversityYichangChina
  2. 2.Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources SecurityWuhanChina
  3. 3.Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, and Zachry Department of Civil EngineeringTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA

Personalised recommendations