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Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 138, Issue 3–4, pp 1971–1989 | Cite as

Projection of spatiotemporal patterns and possible changes of drought in the Yellow River basin, China

  • Mingwei Ma
  • Huijuan Cui
  • Wenchuan WangEmail author
  • Xudong Huang
  • Xinjun Tu
Original Paper
  • 101 Downloads

Abstract

Drought projection is of critical significance for designing long-term drought adaptation strategies to cope with changing climate. This study presents an application of multi-class models for characterizing future droughts in the Yellow River basin (YRB). Using meteorological observations and simulations of three CMIP5 climatic models as input into VIC hydrologic model, the standardized Palmer drought index-based joint drought index (SPDI-JDI) is calculated to investigate spatiotemporal patterns and possible changes of future drought in the YRB, through an approach of bivariate modeling and analysis. It is concluded that moderate drought will be alleviated with decreased duration and severity, but extreme drought risk is likely to increase for future climate scenarios (2021–2050) relative to baseline period (1961–2000). From the perspective of bivariate analyses, the concurrence probability of drought events with extreme duration and severity might rise in the future, while increasing variability and heterogeneity of duration, severity and bivariate joint/concurrent return period would also increase the stochastic occurrence of extreme drought over time and space. These findings can provide insights into projection of climate change impacts on drought trends for the next 30 years, and help to preparations for strict control of socio-economic water consumption as well as eco-environmental protection and restoration in the YRB.

Keywords

Drought Climate change CMIP5 VIC hydrologic model SPDI-JDI Bivariate return period Yellow River basin 

Notes

Funding information

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41701022 and 41730654), Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (Grant No. 2017491011), Henan Province University Scientific and Technological Innovation Team (18IRTSTHN009), and Henan Province Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation and Treatment (2017016).

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mingwei Ma
    • 1
    • 2
  • Huijuan Cui
    • 3
  • Wenchuan Wang
    • 1
    Email author
  • Xudong Huang
    • 1
  • Xinjun Tu
    • 4
  1. 1.School of Water ConservancyNorth China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerZhengzhouChina
  2. 2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic EngineeringHohai UniversityNanjingChina
  3. 3.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  4. 4.Center of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil EngineeringSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouChina

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