Advertisement

Spatial and temporal analysis of changes in temperature extremes in the non-monsoon region of China from 1961 to 2016

  • Yuyang Wang
  • Zhiyong DingEmail author
  • Yaoming MaEmail author
Original Paper
  • 80 Downloads

Abstract

Changes in temperature extremes have far-reaching consequences for fragile ecological processes, hydrologic cycles, and human society in semiarid and arid regions. Therefore, detecting the spatial and temporal variations in temperature extremes and their driving mechanisms is crucial. Based on daily temperature records from 1961 to 2016 at 154 meteorological stations in the non-monsoon region of China, the spatial and temporal variations in 12 extreme temperature indices and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) were analyzed, and the association of these variations with atmospheric circulation patterns was also investigated. The major conclusions are as follows. (1) DTR and cold temperature extremes decreased significantly except for the coldest days (TXn) and coldest nights (TNn), which increased significantly, while all the warm temperature extremes significantly increased in the past 56 years; that is, all the temperature-based indices show patterns consistent with a general warming trend. (2) Cold extremes slowed during the global warming hiatus (1998–2016) compared with 1961–2016; however, the variation trends in the warm extremes did not change dramatically between the two periods. (3) Almost all temperature indices display the largest trend magnitudes in the cold-half year (autumn and winter), the variation trends in most cold extremes are significantly higher than those in warm extremes, and the warming rates of the nighttime indices are also significantly faster than those of the daytime indices. (4) Spatially, for most significant temperature indices, the stations located on the Tibetan Plateau show larger variation trends. (5) Both annual and seasonal Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) index are significantly correlated with almost all of the temperature indices, except for TXn; further, the summer and winter western Pacific subtropical high intensity (WPI) index, the summer and winter North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index, and the winter Arctic oscillation (AO) index display significant relationships with most of the temperature extremes, which indicates that the large atmospheric circulation patterns play significant roles in the changing temperature extremes in this region. Overall, the results provide scientific references for understanding and predicting the spatial and temporal trends of extreme climate in the future.

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20060101); the National Key Research and Development Program on monitoring, early warning and prevention of major natural disasters (grant no. 2017YFC1502401); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.91837208 and No.41661144043); Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. QYZDJ-SSWDQC019). Meanwhile, the first author thanks the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for providing the data used in this study.

References

  1. Aguilar E, Aziz Barry A, Brunet M, Ekang L, Fernandes A, Massoukina M, Mbah J, Mhanda A, do Nascimento DJ, Peterson TC, Thamba Umba O, Tomou M, Zhang X (2009) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955–2006. J Geophys Res 114(D2):356–360CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alexander LV, Arblaster JM (2009) Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections. Int J Climatol 29(3):417–435CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111(D5):1042–1063CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chen Y, Deng H, Li B, Li Z, Xu C (2014) Abrupt change of temperature and precipitation extremes in the arid region of Northwest China. Quat Int 336(12):35–43CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Chen F, Jia J, Chen J, Li G, Zhang X, Xie H, Xia D, Huang W, An C (2016a) A persistent Holocene wetting trend in arid Central Asia, with wettest conditions in the late Holocene, revealed by multi-proxy analyses of loess-paleosol sequences in Xinjiang, China. Quat Sci Rev 146:134–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chen Y, Li W, Deng H, Fang G, Li Z (2016b) Changes in Central Asia's water tower: past, present and future. Sci Rep 6:35458.  https://doi.org/10.1038/srep35458 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Deng H, Chen Y, Shi X, Li W, Wang H, Zhang S, Fang G (2014) Dynamics of temperature and precipitation extremes and their spatial variation in the arid region of Northwest China. Atmos Res 138:346–355CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Deng H, Pepin N, Liu Q, Chen Y (2018) Understanding the spatial differences in terrestrial water storage variations in the Tibetan plateau from 2002 to 2016. Clim Chang 151:379–393.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2325-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Ding Z, Wang Y, Lu R (2018a) An analysis of changes in temperature extremes in the three river headwaters region of the Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2016. Atmos Res 209:103–114CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ding Z, Lu R, Wang Y (2018b) Spatiotemporal variations in extreme precipitation and their potential driving factors in non-monsoon regions of China during 1961–2017. Environ Res Lett.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2ec
  11. Easterling DR, Wehner MF (2009) Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys Res Lett 36(8):262–275CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Fang S, Qi Y, Yu W, Liang H, Han G, Li Q, Shen S, Zhou G, Shi G (2017) Change in temperature extremes and its correlation with mean temperature in mainland China from 1960 to 2015. Int J Climatol 37:3910–3918CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Foster G, Rahmstorf S (2011) Global temperature evolution 1979–2010. Environ Res Lett 6(4):526–533CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Frauenfeld OW, Zhang TJ, Serreze MC (2005) Climate change and variability using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA−40) temperatures on the Tibetan plateau. J Geophys Res 110:1–9Google Scholar
  15. Gao M, Zheng H (2017) Nonstationary extreme value analysis of temperature extremes in China. Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1482-0
  16. Gao Y et al (1962) Some problems on East Asian monsoon. Science Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  17. Gao T, Wang H, Zhou T (2017) Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China. Atmos Res 197:379–89Google Scholar
  18. Goubanova K, Li L (2007) Extremes in temperature and precipitation around the Mediterranean basin in an ensemble of future climate scenario simulations. Glob Planet Chang 57:27–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Guan Y, Zhang X, Zheng F, Wang B (2015) Trends and variability of daily temperature extremes during 1960–2012 in the Yangtze River basin, China. Glob Planet Chang 124:79–94CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Habeeb D, Vargo J, Stone B (2015) Rising heat wave trends in large US cities. Nat Hazards 76:1651–1665CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Hu Z, Hu A, Hu Y (2018) Contributions of Interdecadal Pacific oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation to Global Ocean heat content distribution. J Clim 31:1227–1244CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Huang Y, Wang H, Fan K, Gao Y (2014) The western Pacific subtropical high after the 1970s: westward or eastward shift? Clim Dyn 44:2035–2047CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Huang J, Li Y, Fu C, Chen F, Fu Q, Dai A, Shinoda M, Ma Z, Guo W, Li Z, Zhang L, Liu Y, Yu H, He Y, Xie Y, Guan X, Ji M, Lin L, Wang S, Yan H, Wang G (2017) Dryland climate change: recent progress and challenges. Rev Geophys 55:719–778CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
  25. Johnson NC, Xie SP, Kosaka Y, Li X (2018) Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown. Nat Commun 9(1):1–124Google Scholar
  26. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, LondonGoogle Scholar
  27. Kosaka Y, Xie SP (2013) Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501:403–407CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Krishnamurthy L, Krishnamurthy V (2015) Teleconnections of Indian monsoon rainfall with AMO and Atlantic tripole. Clim Dyn 46:2269–2285CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kuang X, Jiao JJ (2016) Review on climate change on the Tibetan plateau during the last half century. J Geophys Res-Atmos 121:3979–4007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Levine AFZ, McPhaden MJ, Frierson DMW (2017) The impact of the AMO on multidecadal ENSO variability. Geophys Res Lett 44:3877–3886CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Li ZX, He YQ, Wang PY, Theakstone WH, An WL, Wang XF, Lu AG, Zhang W, Cao WH (2012a) Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961–2008. Glob Planet Chang 80-81:255–272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Li Z, Xiao J, Li J, Wang K, Lei L, Guo H (2012b) The 2010 spring drought reduced primary productivity in southwestern China. Environ Res Lett 7(4):1–10Google Scholar
  33. Li J, Sun C, Jin FF (2013) NAO implicated as a predictor of northern hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability. Geophys Res Lett 40:5497–5502CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Limsakul A, Singhruck P (2016) Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand. Atmos Res 169:301–317CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Lin P, He Z, Du J, Chen L, Zhu X, Li J (2017) Recent changes in daily climate extremes in an arid mountain region, a case study in north-western China's Qilian Mountains. Sci Rep 7:1–15Google Scholar
  36. Mann H (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Martín-Rey M, Polo I, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T, Lazar A (2018) Is there evidence of changes in tropical Atlantic variability modes under AMO phases in the observational record? J Clim 31:515–536CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Rahimi M, Hejabi S (2018) Spatial and temporal analysis of trends in extreme temperature indices in Iran over the period 1960−2014. Int J Climatol 38:272–282CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Rodwell MJ, Hoskins BJ (2001) Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. J Clim 14:3192–3211CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Seneviratne SI, Donat MG, Mueller B, Alexander LV (2014) No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes. Nat Clim Chang 4:161–163CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Shen X, Liu B, Lu X (2018) Weak cooling of cold extremes versus continued warming of Hot Extremes in China During the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus. J Geophys Res-Atmos. 123:1–15Google Scholar
  43. Shi J, Cui L, Wen K, Tian Z, Wei P, Zhang B (2018a) Trends in the consecutive days of temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 1961-2015. Environ Res 161:381–391CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Shi J, Cui L, Wen K, Ma Y, Du H, Wen K (2018b) Trends in temperature extremes and their association with circulation patterns in China during 1961–2015. Atmos Res 212:259–272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Soulard N, Lin H (2016) The spring relationship between the Pacific-north American pattern and the North Atlantic oscillation. Clim Dyn 48:619–629CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Sun W, Mu X, Song X, Wu D, Cheng A, Qiu B (2016) Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960–2013 under global warming. Atmos Res 168:33–48CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Sutton RT, Dong B (2012) Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s. Nat Geosci 5:788–792CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Tao H, Fischer T, Su B, Mao W, Jiang T, Fraedrich K (2017) Observed changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Xinjiang autonomous region, China. Int J Climatol 37:5120–5128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Thiel H (1950) A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, III. Proc K Ned Akad Wet Ser A 53:1397–1412Google Scholar
  50. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic oscillation signature in the winter time geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25:1297–1300CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Tong S, Li X, Zhang J, Bao Y, Bao Y, Na L, Si A (2019) Spatial and temporal variability in extreme temperature and precipitation events in Inner Mongolia (China) during 1960-2017. Sci Total Environ 649:75–89.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.262 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Vogt DJ, Vogt KA, Gmur SJ, Scullion JJ, Suntana AS, Daryanto S, Sigurethardottir R (2016) Vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems and forest dependent communities to droughts. Environ Res 144:27–38CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. von Storch H, Navarra A (1995) Analysis of climate variability: applications of statistical techniques. Springer-Verlag, BerlinCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Wang J, Yang B, Ljungqvist F, Zhao Y (2013) The relationship between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and temperature variability in China during the last millennium. J Quat Sci 28(7):653–658CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Wang G, Yan D, He X, Liu S, Zhang C, Xing Z, Kan G, Qin T, Ren M, Li H (2017) Trends in extreme temperature indices in Huang-Huai-Hai River basin of China during 1961–2014. Theor Appl Climatol 275:1–15Google Scholar
  56. Xu Z, Cheng J, Hu W, Tong S (2018) Heatwave and health events: a systematic evaluation of different temperature indicators, heatwave intensities and durations. Sci Total Environ 630:679–689CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Yan X, Boyer T, Trenberth K, Karl T, Xie SP, Nieves V, Tung K, Roemmich D (2016) The global warming hiatus: slowdown or redistribution? Earths Future 4(11):472–482CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Yang P, Xia J, Zhang Y, Wang L (2017) Drought assessment in Northwest China during1960–2013 using the standardized precipitation index. Clim Res 72(1):73–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Yang P, Xia J, Zhang Y, Zhang C, Qiao Y (2018) Comprehensive assessment of drought risk in the arid region of Northwest China based on the global palmer drought severity index gridded data. Sci Total Environ 627:951–962CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Yao T, Thompson L, Yang W, Yu W, Gao Y, Guo X, Yang X, Duan K, Zhao H, Xu B, Pu J, Lu A, Xiang Y, Kattel DB, Joswiak D (2012) Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings. Nat Clim Chang 2:663–667CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Yan Y (2008) Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan plateau during 1961–2005. J Geophys Res: Atmos 113(D7):1–17Google Scholar
  62. You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Pepin N, Flügel WA, Yan Y, Xu Y, Zhang Y, Huang J (2011) Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the largescale atmospheric circulation during 1961–2003. Clim Dyn 36:2399–2417CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. You Q, Ren G, Fraedrich K, Kang S, Ren Y, Wang P (2013) Winter temperature extremes in China and their possible causes. Int J Climatol 33(6):1444–1455CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Yu Z, Li X (2015) Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern China (1960–2011). Quat Int 380-381:35–48CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Zeng W, Yu Z, Li X (2017) The influence of elevation, latitude and Arctic oscillation on trends in temperature extremes over northeastern China, 1961–2011. Meteorog Atmos Phys 130:191–209.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0509-x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Zhang R, Delworth TL (2007) Impact of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on North Pacific climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 34(23):229–241Google Scholar
  67. Zhang X, Yang F (2004) RClimDex (1.0) User Manual. vol. 22. Climate Research Branch Environment, CanadaGoogle Scholar
  68. Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Tank AK, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW (2011a) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 2:851–870CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Zhang Q, Li J, Chen YD, Chen X, Chen X (2011b) Observed changes of temperature extremes during 1960-2005 in China: natural or human-induced variations? Theor Appl Climatol 106(3–4):417–431CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Zscheischler J, Mahecha MD, Harmeling S, Reichstein M (2013) Detection and attribution of large spatiotemporal extreme events in Earth observation data. Ecol Inform 15:66–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Zuo J, Ren HL, Li W, Wang L (2016) Interdecadal variations in the relationship between the winter North Atlantic oscillation and temperature in south-Central China. J Clim 29:7477–7493CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  3. 3.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
  4. 4.CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations