Advertisement

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 135, Issue 3–4, pp 1195–1213 | Cite as

Monsoon rainfall over India in June and link with northwest tropical pacific

June ISMR and link with northwest tropical pacific
  • Sajani SurendranEmail author
  • Sulochana Gadgil
  • Kavirajan Rajendran
  • Stella Jes Varghese
  • Akio Kitoh
Original Paper
  • 883 Downloads

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed large interannual variation of all-India rainfall (AIR) in June, with intermittent large deficits and excesses. Variability of June AIR is found to have the strongest link with variation of rainfall over northwest tropical Pacific (NWTP), with AIR deficit (excess) associated with enhancement (suppression) of NWTP rainfall. This association is investigated using high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute model which shows high skill in simulating important features of Asian summer monsoon, its variability and the inverse relationship between NWTP rainfall and AIR. Analysis of the variation of NWTP rainfall shows that it is associated with a change in the latitudinal position of subtropical westerly jet over the region stretching from West of Tibetan Plateau (WTP) to NWTP and the phase of Rossby wave steered in it with centres over NWTP and WTP. In years with large rainfall excess/deficit, the strong link between AIR and NWTP rainfall exists through differences in Rossby wave phase steered in the jet. The positive phase of the WTP-NWTP pattern, with troughs over WTP and west of NWTP, tends to be associated with increased rainfall over NWTP and decreased AIR. This scenario is reversed in the opposite phase. Thus, the teleconnection between NWTP rainfall and AIR is a manifestation of the difference in the phase of Rossby wave between excess and deficit years, with centres over WTP and NWTP. This brings out the importance of prediction of phase of Rossby waves over WTP and NWTP in advance, for prediction of June rainfall over India.

Keywords

June all India rainfall Northwest tropical Pacific rainfall Teleconnection Subtropical westerly jet Rossby wave phase 

Notes

Funding information

This study received financial support from the Grant-in-aid project, NCAP of MoEFCC (GAP-1009), and the Multi-Scale Modeling Program of CSIR 4PI. The MRI-AGCM3.2 simulations were made by the Earth Simulator of JAMSTEC, under the SOUSEI Program funded by MEXT, Japan.

References

  1. Adler R F, Huffman G J, Chang A et al. (2003) The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J Hydrometeor 4(6):1147–1167CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Arakawa A, Schubert W H (1974) Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment: part I. J Atmos Sci 31(3):674–701CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Charney JG, Straus DM (1980) Form-drag instability, multiple equillibria and propagating planetary waves in baroclinic, orographically forced, planetary wave systems. J Atmos Sci 37:1157–1176CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Dee D P et al. (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 137:553–597.  https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Ding Q, Wang B (2007) Intraseasonal teleconnection between the summer Eurasian wave train and the Indian monsoon. J Climate 20:3751–3767CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Flohn H (1957) Large-scale aspects of the “summer monsoon” in South and East Asia. J Meteor Soc Japan 75:180–186CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Francis P A, Gadgil S (2009) The aberrant behaviour of the Indian monsoon in June. Current Science 97 (9):1291–1295Google Scholar
  8. Gadgil S (2003) The Indian monsoon and its variability. Ann Rev Earth Planet Sci 31:429–467CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Gadgil S, Gadgil S (2006) The Indian monsoon, GDP and agriculture. Econ Pol Wkly XLI 48:87–95Google Scholar
  10. Gadgil S, Francis P A (2016) El Niño and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Current Sci 110(6):1010–1022CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Ho L, Wang B (2002) The time-space structure of the asian-pacific summer monsoon: a fast annual cycle view. J Climate 15(15):2001–2019CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Joseph P V, Srinivasan J (1999) Rossby waves in May and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Tellus 51 A:854–864CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Kang I S et al. (2002) Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Clim Dyn 19:383–395.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0245-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Kimoto M, Yasutomi N, Yokoyama C, Emori S (2005) Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around Japan under the global warming. SOLA 1:85–88.  https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2005-023 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Koteswaram P (1958) The easterly jet stream in the tropics. Tellus 10:43–57CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Krishnamurti T N (1985) Summer monsoon experiment? A review. Mon Wea Rev 113:1590–1626CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Krishnan R, Sugi M (2001) Baiu rainfall variability and its monsoon teleconnections. J Meteor Soc Japan 79:851–860CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kusunoki S, Yoshimura J, Yoshimura H, Noda A, Oouchi K, Mizuta R (2006) Change of Baiu rain band in global warming projection by an atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km grid size. J Meteor Soc Japan 84:581–611.  https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.84.581 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Lau K M, Li M T (1984) The monsoon of East Asia and its global associations - a survey. Bull Amer Met Soc 65(2):114–125CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Lau K-M, Kim K-M, Yang S (2000) Dynamical and boundary forcing characteristics of regional components of the Asian summer monsoon. J Climate 13:2461–2482CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Mizuta R, Yoshimura H, Murakami H, Matsueda M, Endo H, Ose T, Kamiguchi K, Hosaka M, Sugi M, Yukimoto S, Kusunoki S, Kitoh A (2012) Climate simulations using MRI-AGCM3.2 with 20-km grid. J Met Soc Japan 90A:233–258CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Murakami T (1958) The sudden change of upper westerlies near the Tibetan plateau at the beginning of summer season. J Meteor Soc Japan 36:239–247CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Murakami T, Matsumoto J (1994) Summer monsoon over the Asian continent and western north Pacific. J Meteor Soc Japan 72:719–745CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Ninomiya K (1984) Characteristics of Baiu front as a predominant subtropical front in the summer Northern Hemisphere. J Meteor Soc Japan 62:880–894CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Ninomiya K, Murakami M (1987) The early summer rainy season (Baiu) over Japan, Monsoon Meteorology. In: Chang C P, Krishnamurti T N (eds). Oxford Univ Press, pp 93–121Google Scholar
  26. Ninomiya K, Nishimura T, Ohfuchi W, Suzuki T, Matsumura S (2002) Features of the baiu front simulated in an AGCM (T42L52). J Meteor Soc Japan 80:697–716.  https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.80.697 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Pathak A, Ghosh S, Martinez J A, Dominguez F, Kumar P (2016) Role of oceanic and land moisture sources and transport in the seasonal and inter-annual variability of summer monsoon in India. J Climate 30:5.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0156.1 Google Scholar
  28. Parthasarathy B, Munot A A, Kothawale D R (1995) Monthly and seasonal rainfall series for all-India, homogenous regions and meteorological subdivisions: 1871-1994. Res. Rep. No. RR-065, ISSN 0252-1075, pp 113Google Scholar
  29. Rajendran K, Kitoh A (2008) Indian summer monsoon in future climate projection by a super high resolution global model. Curr Sci (ISSN 0894-8755) 95(11):1560–1569Google Scholar
  30. Rajendran K, Surendran S, Jayasankar C B, Kitoh A (2013) How dependent is climate change projection of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and extreme events on model resolution? Curr Sci 104(10):1409–1418Google Scholar
  31. Raman C R V, Rao Y P (1981) Blocking highs over Asia and monsoon droughts over India. Nature 289:221–223CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Randall D, Pan D M (1993) Implementation of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization with a prognostic closure. Meteorol Monogr 46:145–150Google Scholar
  33. Rayner N A, Brohan P, Parker D E, Folland C K, Kennedy J J, Vanicek M, Ansell T, Tett S F B (2006) Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset. J. Climate 19:446–469.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3637.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Sahana A S, Ghosh S, Ganguly A, Murtugudde R (2015) Shift in Indian summer monsoon onset during 1976/1977. Environ Res Lett 10:054006.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054006. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Sampe T, Xie S P (2010) Large-scale dynamics of the meiyu-baiu rainband: environmental forcing by the westerly jet. J Climate 23:113–134.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3128.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Shaman J, Tziperman E (2010) Summertime ENSO? North African-Asian Jet teleconnection and implications for the Indian monsoons. Geophys Res Lett 34:L11702.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029143 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Sikka D R (2011) Synoptic and mesoscale weather disturbances over South Asia during the southwest summer monsoon season. In: Chang C P, Ding Y, Lau N C, Johnson R H, Wang B, Yasunari T (eds) The Global Monsoon system: research and forecast. 2nd edn. World Scientific, Hackensack, pp 183–204Google Scholar
  38. Spiegel M R (1988) Schaum’s outline of theory and problems of statistics, 2nd edn. McGraw-Hill, pp 324–339Google Scholar
  39. Tao S, Chen L (1987) A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. In: Chang C P, Krishnamurti T (eds) Monsoon meteorology. Oxford University Press, pp 60–92Google Scholar
  40. Taylor K E, Williamson D, Zwiers F (2000) The sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration boundary conditions for AMIP II simulations. PCMDI Tech Rep 60:24Google Scholar
  41. Tiedtke M (1989) A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon Wea Rev 117(8):1779–1800CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Trenberth K E (1990) Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull Amer Met Soc 71:988993CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Wang B, Xu X (1997) Northern hemisphere summer monsoon singularities and climatological intraseasonal oscillation. J Climate 10:1071–1085CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Webster P J, Palmer T, Yanai M, Magana V, Shukla J, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes and predictability and prospect for prediction. J Geophys Res 103(C7):14451–14510CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Wu R, Wang B (2000) Multi-stage onset of the summer monsoon over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 17:277–289CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Xie P P, Arkin P A (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 78(11):2539–2558CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Yasunari T (1979) Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the northern hemisphere summer monsoon. J Meteor Soc Japan 57:227– 242CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Yun K S, Ha K J, Wang B, Ding R (2010) Decadal cooling in the Indian summer monsoon after 1997/1998 El Niño and its impact on the east Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 37:L01805.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041539 Google Scholar
  49. Yoshimura H, Mizuta R, Murakami H (2015) A spectral cumulus parameterization scheme interpolating between two convective updrafts with Semi-Lagrangian calculation of transport by compensatory subsidence. Mon Rev Rev 143:597–621.  https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00068.1 Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Multi-Scale Modelling ProgrammeCSIR Fourth Paradigm InstituteBangaloreIndia
  2. 2.Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesIndian Institute of ScienceBangaloreIndia
  3. 3.Academy of Scientific and Innovative ResearchCSIR Fourth Paradigm InstituteBangaloreIndia
  4. 4.Japan Meteorological Business Support CenterTsukubaJapan

Personalised recommendations