Application study of monthly precipitation forecast in Northeast China based on the cold vortex persistence activity index
- 99 Downloads
This paper introduces three quantitative indicators to conduct research for characterizing Northeast China cold vortex persistence activity: cold vortex persistence, generalized “cold vortex,” and cold vortex precipitation. As discussed in the first part of paper, a hindcast is performed by multiple regressions using Northeast China precipitation from 2012 to 2014 combination with the previous winter 144 air-sea system factors. The results show that the mentioned three cold vortex index series can reflect the spatial and temporal distributions of observational precipitation in 2012–2014 and obtain results. The cold vortex factors are then added to the Forecast System on Dynamical and Analogy Skills (FODAS) to carry out dynamic statistical hindcast of precipitation in Northeast China from 2003 to 2012. Based on the characteristics and significance of each index, precipitation hindcast is carried out for Northeast China in May, June, July, August, May–June, and July–August. It turns out that the Northeast Cold Vortex Index Series, as defined in this paper, can make positive corrections to the FODAS forecast system, and most of the index correction results are higher than the system’s own correction value. This study provides quantitative index products and supplies a solid technical foundation and support for monthly precipitation forecast in Northeast China.
We thank Dr. Feng Guolin for the help in collecting data and result analyses. Comments from He Wenping and Feng Aixia in the National Climate Center of China and Li Guoping in the National Meteorological Information Center are very helpful and the reviewers significantly improved this manuscript.
This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41741021, 41405094, 41630424, and 41530531).
- Ding YH (2005) Advanced synoptic meteorology. Meteorological press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
- Feng GL, Zhao JH, Zhi R, Gong ZQ, Zheng ZH, Yang J, Xiong KG (2013) Recent progress on the objective and quantifiable forecast of summer precipitation based on dynamical statistical method. J Appl Meteor Sci 24:656–665 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- Gong ZQ, Dogar MM, Qiao SB, Hu P, Feng GL (2017) Assessment and correction of BCC_CSM’s performance in capturing leading modes of summer precipitation over North Asia. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5327
- He JH, Wu ZW, Qi L, Jiang AJ (2006b) Relationships among the northern hemisphere annual mode, the northeast cold vortex and the summer rainfall in Northeast China. J Meteorol Environ V22(1):1–5Google Scholar
- He WP, Wang LP, Wan SQ, Liao LJ, Tao H (2012) Evolutionary modeling for dryness and wetness prediction. Acta Phys Sin 61(11):119201Google Scholar
- Hu KX, Lu RY, Wang DH (2011) Cold vortex over northeast China and its climate effect. Atmos Sci 35(1):179–191Google Scholar
- Lian Y, BuHe CL, Xie ZW, Shen BZ, Li SF (2010) The Anomalous cold vortex activity in Northeast China during the early summer and the low-frequency variability of the Northern Hemispheric atmosphere circulation. Chin J Atmos Sci (in Chinese) 34(2):429–439Google Scholar
- Liu ZX, Yi L, Gao ZT (2002) Analyses of the Northern Hemisphere Circulation Characters during Northeast Cold Vortex Persistence. Atmos Sci 26(3): 361–372Google Scholar
- Liu G, Lian Y, Yan PC Zeng XY, Yang X, Cao L (2015b) The objective recognition and classification of northeast cold vortex and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characters in May to August. Geogr Sci (8): 1042–1050. doi: https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.08.1042. (in Chinese)
- Lu RY, Huang RH (1998) Influence of East Asia/ Pacific teleconnection pattern on the inter-annual variations of the blocking highs over the Northeastern Asia in summer. Influence Atmos Sci 22(5):727–734Google Scholar
- Shen BZ, Li SF, Lian Y (2008) The harmonic analysis of cold vortex of the North-East China in early summer. J Jilin Univ (Earth Sci) 38:204–208Google Scholar
- Shi N (2002) Multivariate analysis method in meteorological research and forecast, second edn. Meteorological press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
- Tao SY (1998) Rainstorm of China. Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- Zhao ZC, Zhu YF, Jiang Y (2008) Challenge on prediction of East Asian winter monsoon as a global warming (ISCCE). Summarization. Chang Chun, China. in 6–11 September:8–10Google Scholar