Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 135, Issue 3–4, pp 1079–1090 | Cite as

Application study of monthly precipitation forecast in Northeast China based on the cold vortex persistence activity index

  • Liu Gang
  • Qu MeihuiEmail author
  • Feng Guolin
  • Chu Qucheng
  • Cao Jing
  • Yang Jie
  • Cao Ling
  • Feng Yao
Original Paper


This paper introduces three quantitative indicators to conduct research for characterizing Northeast China cold vortex persistence activity: cold vortex persistence, generalized “cold vortex,” and cold vortex precipitation. As discussed in the first part of paper, a hindcast is performed by multiple regressions using Northeast China precipitation from 2012 to 2014 combination with the previous winter 144 air-sea system factors. The results show that the mentioned three cold vortex index series can reflect the spatial and temporal distributions of observational precipitation in 2012–2014 and obtain results. The cold vortex factors are then added to the Forecast System on Dynamical and Analogy Skills (FODAS) to carry out dynamic statistical hindcast of precipitation in Northeast China from 2003 to 2012. Based on the characteristics and significance of each index, precipitation hindcast is carried out for Northeast China in May, June, July, August, May–June, and July–August. It turns out that the Northeast Cold Vortex Index Series, as defined in this paper, can make positive corrections to the FODAS forecast system, and most of the index correction results are higher than the system’s own correction value. This study provides quantitative index products and supplies a solid technical foundation and support for monthly precipitation forecast in Northeast China.



We thank Dr. Feng Guolin for the help in collecting data and result analyses. Comments from He Wenping and Feng Aixia in the National Climate Center of China and Li Guoping in the National Meteorological Information Center are very helpful and the reviewers significantly improved this manuscript.

Funding information

This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41741021, 41405094, 41630424, and 41530531).


  1. Ding YH (2005) Advanced synoptic meteorology. Meteorological press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  2. Feng G-L, Wu Y-P (2016) Signal of acceleration and physical mechanism of water cycle in Xinjiang, China. PLoS One 11(12):e0167387. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Feng GL, Zhao JH, Zhi R, Gong ZQ, Zheng ZH, Yang J, Xiong KG (2013) Recent progress on the objective and quantifiable forecast of summer precipitation based on dynamical statistical method. J Appl Meteor Sci 24:656–665 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  4. Gao ST, Zhu WS, Dong M (1998) On the wave-flow interaction in the low frequency atmospheric variation: blocking pattern. J Meteorol 56(6):665–680. Google Scholar
  5. Gong ZQ, Zhao JH, Feng GL, Chou JF (2015) Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia. Sci China Earth Sci 58(3):404–419. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Gong ZQ, Hutin C, Feng GL (2016) Methods for improving the prediction skill of summer precipitation over East Asia–West Pacific. Weather Forecast 31(4):1381–1392. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Gong ZQ, Dogar MM, Qiao SB, Hu P, Feng GL (2017) Assessment and correction of BCC_CSM’s performance in capturing leading modes of summer precipitation over North Asia. Int J Climatol.
  8. He JH, Wu ZW, Jiang ZH, Miao CS, Han GR (2006a) “Climatic effects” of the northeast cold vortex and its imfluences on Meiyu. Chin Sci Bull 52(5):671–679. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. He JH, Wu ZW, Qi L, Jiang AJ (2006b) Relationships among the northern hemisphere annual mode, the northeast cold vortex and the summer rainfall in Northeast China. J Meteorol Environ V22(1):1–5Google Scholar
  10. He WP, Wang LP, Wan SQ, Liao LJ, Tao H (2012) Evolutionary modeling for dryness and wetness prediction. Acta Phys Sin 61(11):119201Google Scholar
  11. Hu KX, Lu RY, Wang DH (2011) Cold vortex over northeast China and its climate effect. Atmos Sci 35(1):179–191Google Scholar
  12. Lian Y, BuHe CL, Xie ZW, Shen BZ, Li SF (2010) The Anomalous cold vortex activity in Northeast China during the early summer and the low-frequency variability of the Northern Hemispheric atmosphere circulation. Chin J Atmos Sci (in Chinese) 34(2):429–439Google Scholar
  13. Liu ZX, Yi L, Gao ZT (2002) Analyses of the Northern Hemisphere Circulation Characters during Northeast Cold Vortex Persistence. Atmos Sci 26(3): 361–372Google Scholar
  14. Liu G, Feng GL, Qin YL, Ling C, Yao HW, Liu ZQ (2015a) Activity of cold vortex in northeastern China and its connection with the characteristics of precipitation and circulation during 1960–2012. J Geogr Sci 25(12):1423–1438. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Liu G, Lian Y, Yan PC Zeng XY, Yang X, Cao L (2015b) The objective recognition and classification of northeast cold vortex and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characters in May to August. Geogr Sci (8): 1042–1050. doi: (in Chinese)
  16. Liu G, Wang N, Qin YL, Cao L, Chu QC, Yao S (2016) Characteristics of persistent activity and streng of cold vortex during May and June in Northeast China. J Appl Meteorol 27:47–55. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  17. Lu RY, Huang RH (1998) Influence of East Asia/ Pacific teleconnection pattern on the inter-annual variations of the blocking highs over the Northeastern Asia in summer. Influence Atmos Sci 22(5):727–734Google Scholar
  18. Shen BZ, Li SF, Lian Y (2008) The harmonic analysis of cold vortex of the North-East China in early summer. J Jilin Univ (Earth Sci) 38:204–208Google Scholar
  19. Shen BZ, Lin ZD, Lu RY, Lian Y (2011) Circulation anomalies associated with interannual variation of early- and late-summer precipitation in Northeast China. Sci China Earth Sci 54(7):1095–1104. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Shi N (2002) Multivariate analysis method in meteorological research and forecast, second edn. Meteorological press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  21. Shutts GJ (1983) The propagation of eddies in diffluent jetstreams: eddy vorticity forcing of ‘blocking’ flow fields. Q J R Meteorol Soc 109(462):737–761. Google Scholar
  22. Sun L, An G, Lian Y, Shen BZ, Tang XL (2000) A study of the persistent activity of northeast cold vortex in summer and its genral circulation anomaly charecteristics. J Meteorol 55(6):704–714. (in Chinese). Google Scholar
  23. Tao SY (1998) Rainstorm of China. Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  24. Xie ZW, BuHe CL (2015) Different types of cold vortex circulations over Northeast China and their weather impacts. Mon Wea Rev 143(3):845–863. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Zhao ZC, Zhu YF, Jiang Y (2008) Challenge on prediction of East Asian winter monsoon as a global warming (ISCCE). Summarization. Chang Chun, China. in 6–11 September:8–10Google Scholar
  26. Zhao JH, Liu Y, Wei H, Gang L, Zeng YX (2015) Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500 hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method. Chin Phys B 24(5):059202-1–059202-7. Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Liu Gang
    • 1
  • Qu Meihui
    • 2
    Email author
  • Feng Guolin
    • 3
  • Chu Qucheng
    • 3
  • Cao Jing
    • 4
  • Yang Jie
    • 5
  • Cao Ling
    • 6
  • Feng Yao
    • 6
  1. 1.Laboratory of Middle-High Latitude Circulation System and East Asian Monsoon ResearchJilin Institute of Meteorological SciencesChangchunChina
  2. 2.Jilin Province Key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain Meteorology & Climate ChangeJilin Institute of Meteorological SciencesChangchunChina
  3. 3.College of Physical Science and TechnologyYangzhou UniversityYangzhouChina
  4. 4.Jilin Institute of Economic Management CadresChangchunChina
  5. 5.Jiangsu Province Climate CenterNanjingChina
  6. 6.Jilin Province Meteorological Service CenterChangchunChina

Personalised recommendations