Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 134, Issue 3–4, pp 1269–1285 | Cite as

Modeling of local sea level rise and its future projection under climate change using regional information through EOF analysis

  • A. Naren
  • Rajib MaityEmail author
Original Paper


Sea level rise is one of the manifestations of climate change and may cause a threat to the coastal regions. Estimates from global circulation models (GCMs) are either not available on coastal locations due to their coarse spatial resolution or not reliable since the mismatch between (interpolated) GCM estimates at coastal locations and actual observation over historical period is significantly different. We propose a semi-empirical framework to model the local sea level rise (SLR) using the possibly existing relationship between local SLR and regional atmospheric/oceanic variables. Selection of set of input variables mostly based on the literature bears the signature of both atmospheric and oceanic variables that possibly have an effect on SLR. The proposed approach offers a method to extract the combined information hidden in the regional fields of atmospheric/oceanic variables for a specific target coastal location. Generality of the approach ensures the inclusion of more variables in the set of inputs depending on the geographical location of any coastal station. For demonstration, 14 coastal locations along the Indian coast and islands are considered and a set of regional atmospheric and oceanic variables are considered. After development and validation of the model at each coastal location with the historical data, the model is further used for future projection of local SLR up to the year 2100 for three different future emission scenarios represented by representative concentration pathways (RCPs)—RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The maximum projected SLR is found to vary from 260.65 to 393.16 mm (RCP8.5) by the end of 2100 among the locations considered. Outcome of the proposed approach is expected to be useful in regional coastal management and in developing mitigation strategies in a changing climate.


  1. Albrecht F, Weisse R (2012) Pressure effects on past regional sea level trends and variability in the German Bight. J Ocean Dynamics 62(8):1169–1186. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Asian Development Bank (2012) Addressing climate change and migration in Asia and the Pacific, PhiliphinesGoogle Scholar
  3. Barshan E, Ghodsi A, Azimifar Z, Jahromi MZ (2010) Supervised principal component analysis: visualization, classification and regression on subspaces and submanifold. Pattern Recogn 44:1357–1371. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bindoff NL, Willebrand J, Artale V, Cazenave A, Gregory J, Gulev S, Hanawa K, Le Quéré C, Levitus S, Nojiri Y, Shum CK, Talley LD, Unnikrishnan A, edited by Solomon SD, Qin M, Manning Z, Chen M, Marquis KB, Averyt M, Tignor, Miller HL. (2007) Observations: oceanic climate change and sea level. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
  5. Calafat FM, Chambers DP (2013) Quantifying recent acceleration in sea level unrelated to internal climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 40:3661–3666. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Durack P, Wijffels S, Gleckler P (2014) Long-term sea-level change revisited: the role of salinity. Environ Res Lett 9:114017-1–114017-11. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Grinsted A, Moore JC, Jevrejeva S (2010) Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100AD. Clim Dyn 34(4):461–472. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Horton RM, Gornitz V, Bader DA, Ruane AC, Goldberg R, Rosenzweig C (2011) Climate hazard assessment for stakeholder adaptation planning in New York City. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 50(11):2247–2266. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Hunicke B, Zorita E (2006) Influence of temperature and precipitation on decadal Baltic Sea level variations in the 20th century. Tellus A 58(1):141–153. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pp.Google Scholar
  11. Jevrejeva S, Grinsted A, Moore JC (2009) Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850. Geophys Res Lett 36(20):L20706. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Jevrejeva S, Moore JC, Grinsted A (2010) How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcing by 2100? Geophys Res Lett 37(7):L07703. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Katsman C, Sterl A, Beersma J, van den Brink H, Church J, Hazeleger W, Kopp R, Kroon D, Kwadijk J, Lammersen R, Lowe J, Oppenheimer M, Plag H, Ridley J, Von Storch H, Vaughan D, Vellinga P, Vermeersen L, van de Wal R, Weisse R (2011) Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a lowlying delta the Netherlands as an example. Clim Chang 109(3-4):617–645. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Kemp AC, Horton BP, Donnelly JP, Mann ME, Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2011) Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia. Proc Natl Acad Sci 108(27):11017–11022. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Kopp RE, Horton RM, Little CM, Mitrovica JX, Oppenheimer M, Rasmussen DJ, Strauss BH, Tebaldi C (2014) Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. Earth’s Future 2(8):383–406. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Kolker AS, Hameed S (2007) Meteorologically driven trends in sea level rise. Geophys Res Lett 34(23):L23616. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Levitus SJ, Antonov J, Boyer T (2005) Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003. Geophys Res Lett 32:L02604.
  18. Lowe J, Gregory J (2006) Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model. J Geophys Res 111:C11014.
  19. Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007a) The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Society 88(9):1383–1394. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao ZC, edited by Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL. (2007b).Global climate projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New YorkGoogle Scholar
  21. Miller L, Douglas BC (2007) Gyre-scale atmospheric pressure variations and their relation to 19th and 20th century sea level rise. Geophys Res Lett 34:L16602. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Miller KG, Kopp RE, Horton BP, Browning JV, Kemp AC (2013) A geological perspective on sea-level rise and impacts along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. Earth’s Future 1(1):3–18. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Naren A, Maity R (2016) Hydroclimatic modelling of local sea level rise and its projection in future. Theor Appl Climatol 130(3–4):761–774. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. NYCPCC (2013) edited by Rosenzweig C, Solecki W, NPCC2. Climate risk information: observations climate change projections and maps. Prepared for use by the City of New York Special Initiative on Rebuilding and Resiliency, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  25. Pardaens AK, Lowe JA, Brown S, Nicholls RJ, de Gusmão D (2011) Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions. Geophys Res Lett 38(12):L12604. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Rahmstorf S (2007) A semi empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science 315(5810):368–370. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Solomon S, Plattner G, Knutti R, Friedlingstein P (2009) Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(6):1704–1709. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(51):21527–21532. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Willmott CJ, Robesonb SM, Matsuuraa K (2012) A refined index of model performance. Int J Climatol 32(13):2088–2094. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. World Bank (2014) Building resilience for sustainable development of the Sundarbans: strategy report. South Asia, IndiaGoogle Scholar
  31. Yan Z, Tsimplis NM, Wooli D (2004) Analysis of the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and sea level changes in the Northwest Europe. Int J Climatol 24(6):743–758. CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringIndian Institute of Technology KharagpurKharagpurIndia

Personalised recommendations