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A long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regions of Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole

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Abstract

A long-term (1948 to 2012) trend of precipitation (annual, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons) in Bangladesh was analyzed in different regions using both parametric and nonparametric approaches. Moreover, the possible teleconnections of precipitation (annual and monsoon) variability with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated using both average and individual (both positive and negative) values of ENSO index and IOD. Our findings suggested that for annual precipitation, a significant increasing monotonic trend was found in whole Bangladesh (4.87 mm/year), its western region (5.82 mm/year) including Rangpur (9.41 mm/year) and Khulna (4.95 mm/year), and Sylhet (10.12 mm/year) and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) from eastern region. In pre-monsoon, only Rangpur (2.88 mm/year) showed significant increasing trend, while in monsoon, whole Bangladesh (3.04 mm/year), Sylhet (7.17 mm/year), and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) showed similar trend. In post-monsoon, there was no significant trend. Our results also revealed that the precipitation (annual or monsoon) of whole Bangladesh and almost all of the spatial regions did not show any significant correlation with ENSO events, whereas the average IOD values showed significant correlation only in monsoon precipitation of western region. The individual positive IODs showed significant correlation in whole Bangladesh, western region, and its two divisions (Rajshahi and Khulna). So, in the context of Bangladesh climate, IOD has the more teleconnection to precipitation than that of ENSO. Our findings indicate that the co-occurrence of ENSO and IOD events may suppress their influence on each other.

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Acknowledgments

The authors express their profound gratitude to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for its generous support by providing the essential data. The anonymous reviewer is also thanked for his/her valuable comments which intensively develop manuscript. Annesa Research Center (ARC) is also acknowledged for its kind assistance by delivering the facilities for the fulfillment of the research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environment and Climate Change Laboratory, Department of Oceanography, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh

    Md. Kawser Ahmed & Abu Hena Muhammad Yousuf

  2. Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT), University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh

    Mohammad Samsul Alam

  3. School of Earth and Environment, Leeds University, Leeds, UK

    Md. Monirul Islam

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  1. Md. Kawser Ahmed
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  2. Mohammad Samsul Alam
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  4. Md. Monirul Islam
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Correspondence to Md. Kawser Ahmed.

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Ahmed, M.K., Alam, M.S., Yousuf, A.H.M. et al. A long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regions of Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole. Theor Appl Climatol 129, 473–486 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1765-2

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