Advertisement

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 126, Issue 1–2, pp 113–129 | Cite as

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921–2012 period

  • Lorena LiuzzoEmail author
  • Enrico Bono
  • Vincenzo Sammartano
  • Gabriele FreniEmail author
Original Paper

Abstract

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921–2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann–Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann–Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921–2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

Keywords

Trend Analysis Positive Trend Serial Correlation Negative Trend Rain Gauge 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Alpert P, Ben-Gai T, Baharad A, Benjamini Y, Yekutieli D, Colacino M, Manes A (2002) The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values. Geophys Res Lett 29(11):31–31CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Apaydin H, Erpul G, Bayramin I, Gabriels D (2006) Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project. Turk J Hydrol 328:726–732CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Arnell NW, Liu C, Compagnucci R, da Cunha L, Hanaki K, Howe C, Mailu G, Shiklomanov I, Stakhiv E (2001) Hydrology and water resources. In: Mc Carthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) IPCC climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation & vulnerability, the third assessment report of working group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1000. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 133–191Google Scholar
  4. Bono E, La Loggia G, Noto LV (2005) Spatial interpolation methods based on the use of elevation data. Geophys Res Abstr 7:08893Google Scholar
  5. Brath A, Castellarin A, Montanari A (1999). Detecting non-stationarity in extreme rainfall data observed in Northern Italy. Proceedings of EGS—Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms, Maratea :219–231.Google Scholar
  6. Brunetti M, Buffoni L, Mangianti F, Maugeri M, Nanni T (2004) Temperature, precipitation and extreme events during the last century in Italy. Glob Planet Chang 40(1):141–149CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Monti F, Nanni T (2006) Temperature and precipitation variability in Italy in the last two centuries from homogenised instrumental time series. Int J Climatol 26(3):345–381CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Burn DH, Hag Elnur MA (2002) Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. J Hydrol 255(1):107–122CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Cannarozzo M, Noto LV, Viola F (2006) Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921 2000). Phys Chem Earth 31:1201–1211CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Cheung WH, Senay GB, Singh A (2008) Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 28:1723–1734CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Christensen JH, Carter TR, Rummukainen M, Amanatidis G (2007) Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project. Clim Chang 81(1):1–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Coles SG, Tawn JA (1996) A Bayesian analysis of extreme rainfall data. Applied statistics 463–478.Google Scholar
  13. Coppola E, Giorgi F (2010) An assessment of temperature and precipitation change projections over Italy from recent global and regional climate model simulations. Int J Climatol 30(1):11–32Google Scholar
  14. Dai A, Fung IY, Del Genio AD (1997) Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 1900–1988. J Clim 10:2943–2962CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. De Michele C, Montanari A, Rosso R (1998) The effects of non-stationarity on the evaluation of critical design storms. Water Sci Technol 37(11):187–193CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Diodato N (2007) Climatic fluctuations in southern Italy since the 17th century: reconstruction with precipitation records at Benevento. Clim Chang 80(3–4):411–431CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Douglas EM, Vogel RM, Kroll CN (2000) Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J Hydrol 240(1):90–105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Efron B (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. The annals of statistics 1–26.Google Scholar
  19. Esteban-Parra MJ, Rodrigo FS, Castro-Diez Y (1998) Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Spain for the period 1880–1992. Int J Climatol 18(14):1557–1574CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Ferrari E, Caloiero T, Coscarelli R (2013) Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter rainfall in Calabria (southern Italy). Theor Appl Climatol 114(3–4):479–494CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Gao X, Pal JS, Giorgi F (2006) Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution double nested RCM simulation. Geophys Res Lett 33(3)Google Scholar
  22. Gibbs JP, Martin WT (1962). Urbanization, technology, and the division of labor: international patterns. Am Sociol Rev 667–677Google Scholar
  23. Gini C (1921) Measurement of inequality and Incomes. Econ J 31:124–126CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Giorgi F, Lionello P (2008) Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Glob Planet Chang 63(2):90–104CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Goovaerts P (2000) Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of rainfall. J Hydrol 228(1):113–129CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204(1):182–196CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Held IM, Soden BJ (2000) Water vapor feedback and global warming 1. Annu Rev Energy Environ 25(1):441–475CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1992). Statistical methods in water resources (Vol. 49). ElsevierGoogle Scholar
  29. Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA (1982) Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour Res 18(1):107–121CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Hirsch RM, Alexander RB, Smith RA (1991) Selection of methods for the detection and estimation of trends in water quality. Water Resour Res 27:803–814CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Hulme M, Osborn TJ, Johns TC (1998) Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: comparisons of observations with HadCM2 simulations. Geophys Res Lett 25:3379–3382CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  33. Jones PD, New M, Parker S, Martin DE, Rigor IG (1999) Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev Geophys 37:173–199CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Karpouzos DK, Kavalieratou S, Babajimopoulos C (2010) Trend analysis of precipitation data in Pieria Region (Greece). Eur Water 30:31–40Google Scholar
  35. Kawachi T, Maruyama T, Singh VP (2001) Rainfall entropy for delineation of water resources zones in Japan. J Hydrol 246(1):36–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Kendall MG (1962) Rank correlation methods, Hafner, 3rd edn. Publishing Company, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  37. Kim C, Suh MS, Hong KO (2009) Bayesian changepoint analysis of the annual maximum of daily and subdaily precipitation over South Korea. J Clim 22(24):6741–6757CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Klein Tank AMG, Wijngaard JB, Können GP, Böhm R, Demarée G, Gocheva A, Petrovic P (2002) Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European climate assessment. Int J Climatol 22(12):1441–1453CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Korecha D, Barnston AG (2007) Predictability of June–September rainfall in Ethiopia. Mon Weather Rev 135(2):628–650CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Kundu S, Khare D, Mondal A, Mishra PK (2014) Long term rainfall trend analysis (1871–2011) for whole India. In: Climate change and biodiversity. Springer, Japan, pp. 45–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Wallis JR (1994) Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948–88. J Clim 7(4):586–607CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Livezey RE, Chen WY (1983) Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Mon Weather Rev 111(1):46–59CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Longobardi A, Villani P (2010) Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Mediterranean area. Int J Climatol 30(10):1538–1546Google Scholar
  44. López-Granados F, Jurado-Expósito M, Atenciano S, García-Ferrer A, De la Orden MS, García-Torres L (2002) Spatial variability of agricultural soil parameters in southern Spain. Plant Soil 246(1):97–105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Luis MD, Raventós J, González-Hidalgo JC, Sánchez JR, Cortina J (2000) Spatial analysis of rainfall trends in the region of Valencia (East Spain). Int J Climatol 20(12):1451–1469CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Luis MD, Gonzalez-Hidalgo JC, Brunetti M, Longares LA (2011) Precipitation concentration changes in Spain 1946–2005. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1259–1265CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Luo Y, Wang Z, Liu X, Zhang M (2014). Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Haihe River Basin, China: characterization and management implications. Adv MeteorolGoogle Scholar
  48. Maheras P, Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou C, Vafiadis M, Patrikas I, Flocas H (2004) On the relationships between circulation types and changes in rainfall variability in Greece. Int J Climatol 24(13):1695–1712CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Mann HB (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica J Econometric Soc :245–259.Google Scholar
  50. Mariotti A, Zeng N, Lau KM (2002) Euro-mediterranean rainfall and ENSO—a seasonally varying relationship. Geophys Res Lett 29(12):59–51CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Neppel L, Pujol N, Sabatier R (2011) A multivariate regional test for detection of trends in extreme rainfall: the case of extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean area. Adv Geosci 26(26):145–148CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Norrant C, Douguédroit A (2006) Monthly and daily precipitation trends in the Mediterranean (1950–2000). Theor Appl Climatol 83(1–4):89–106CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Odeh IO, Mcbratney AB, Chittleborough DJ (1995) Further results on prediction of soil properties from terrain attributes: heterotopic cokriging and regression-kriging. Geoderma 67(3):215–226CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Oliver JE (1980) Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index. Prof Geogr 32(3):300–309CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Pagliara S, Viti C, Gozzini B, Meneguzzo F, Crisci A (1998) Uncertainties and trends in extreme rainfall series in Tuscany, Italy: effects on urban drainage network design. Water Sci Technol 37(11):195–202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Piervitali E, Colacino M, Conte M (1998) Rainfall over the Central-Western Mediterranean basin in the period 1951–1995. Part I: precipitation trends. Nuovo cimento della Società italiana di fisica. C 21(3):331–344Google Scholar
  57. Polemio M, Casarano D (2008) Climate change, drought and groundwater availability in southern Italy. Geol Soc Lond, Spec Publ 288(1):39–51CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Renard B, Garreta V, Lang M (2006). An application of Bayesian analysis and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to the estimation of a regional trend in annual maxima. Water Resour Res 42(12).Google Scholar
  59. Rodrigo FS, Trigo RM (2007) Trends in daily rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula from 1951 to 2002. Int J Climatol 27(4):513–529CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Salas JD, Deulleur JW, Yevjevich V, lane WL (1980) Applied modelling of hydrologic time series. Water Resources Publ, LittletonGoogle Scholar
  61. Shannon CE (1948) A mathematical theory of communication. Bell Syst Techn J 27:623–656CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Spagnoli B, Planton S, Deque M, Mestre O, Moisselin JM (2002) Detecting climate change at regional scale: the case of France. Geophys Res Lett 29(10):1450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Svensson C, Kundzewicz ZW, Maurer T (2005) Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low-flow index series. Hydrol Sci J 50(3):811–824Google Scholar
  64. Tabari H, Marofi S, Aeini A, Talaee PH, Mohammadi K (2011) Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the western half of Iran. Agric For Meteorol 151(2):128–136CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Takata Y, Funakawa S, Akshalov K, Ishida N, Kosaki T (2007) Spatial prediction of soil organic matter in northern Kazakhstan based on topographic and vegetation information. Soil Sci Plant Nutr 53(3):289–299CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Tebaldi C, Sansó B (2009) Joint projections of temperature and precipitation change from multiple climate models: a hierarchical Bayesian approach. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc 172(1):83–106CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Trenberth KE (1998) Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: implications for rainfall rates with climate change. Clim Chang 39:667–694CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Von Storch H (1995) Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research. Meteorol Z 4(2):72–80Google Scholar
  69. WMO (ed.). 1992. International meteorological vocabulary, Volume WMO/OMN/BMO-No.182. Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization.Google Scholar
  70. Yue S, Pilon P (2004) A comparison of the power of the t test, Mann-Kendall and bootstrap tests for trend detection. Hydrol Sci J 49:53–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Yue S, Wang CY (2002) Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resour Res 38(6):4–1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrol Process 16(9):1807–1829CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Facoltà di Ingegneria ed ArchitetturaUniversità degli Studi di Enna KoreEnnaItaly
  2. 2.Independent ResearcherTrapaniItaly
  3. 3.DICEAM, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, dell’Energia, dell’Ambiente e dei MaterialiUniversità degli Studi Mediterranea Reggio CalabriaReggio CalabriaItaly

Personalised recommendations