Variations in extreme temperature and precipitation for a Caribbean island: Trinidad
Temperature and precipitation in situ datasets for the Caribbean island, Trinidad for 1961–2010 were statistically analyzed using the RClimDex software and the Mann-Kendall test for trends. The annual, seasonal, and monthly findings were compared with regional projections; Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS) and a 20 km atmospheric global circulation model, and a global projection of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). Overall, the seasonal and decadal results revealed patterns different from the annual warming. All the temperature indices were found to have warming patterns with the wet season, June to December, generally greater than the dry season, January to May. The warmest decade was 1980s, whereas globally, the decade 2001–2010 was the warmest. There was an increase in the annual maximum 5 day precipitation, RX5day, at the UWI station. During the dry season (1973–2010) at the UFS and UWI stations, the RX5day increased by 8.60 and 7.76 mm per decade, respectively, while the maximum 1-day precipitation, RX1day, increased by 2.92 and 8.90 mm per decade for the UFS and UWI, respectively. The 1980s was the wettest, and during the decade 2001–2010, there were above averages for the consecutive dry days (CDD) and the simple daily intensity index (SDII). The projections on both the regional and global outlooks suggest that this warming pattern will continue in the future. This small-scale study supports that seasonal and decadal analyses, in addition to the annual assessments, are significant for the understanding of the climate variability which is required for vulnerability and adaptation studies for small island states.
KeywordsWorld Meteorological Organization Trinidad Caribbean Region Warming Pattern Cool Night
We would like to acknowledge and thank the CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDMI) for providing the freely available software and technical assistance, the Meteorological Services of Trinidad and Tobago, and the University of the West Indies, St Augustine for making the datasets available. The authors will also like to thank the reviewers for their guidance in improving this manuscript.
- Abbas Farhat, et al. (2013) Changes in precipitation extremes over arid to semiarid and subhumid Punjab, Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology:1-10. doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-0988-8
- Beharry S (2012) Analyses of rainfall, temperature and related extreme events for Trinidad and Tobago. Master of Philosophy, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, TrinidadGoogle Scholar
- Chu P-S, Chen YR, Schroeder TA (2010) Changes in precipitation extremes in the Hawaiian islands in a warming climate. Journal of. Climate, 23, 4881–4900. doi: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1175/2010JCLI3484.1
- Easterling DR, Alexander LV, Abdallah Mokssit, Valery Detemmerman (2003) CCI/CLIVAR workshop to develop priority climate indices” Bulletin of the Mathematical Society 84, 1403–1407. doi: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1175/BAMS-84-10-1403
- ETCCDMI (2013) ETCCDMI/CRD Climate Change Indices, Software. Accessed 3March 2014. http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/software.shtml
- Garstang M (1959) Tropical island rainfall: a study of the rainfall distribution of Trinidad, West Indies. Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionGoogle Scholar
- Granger OE (1982) Climatic fluctuations in Trinidad west indies and their implications for water resource planning. Caribb J Sci 17:173–201Google Scholar
- Haylock, M. R., et al. (2006) Trends in total and Extreme South American rainfall in 1960–2000 and links with sea surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 19, 1490–1512. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3695.1
- IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.Google Scholar
- IPCC (2013) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker,T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)].Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.Google Scholar
- Peterson TC (2005) The workshop on enhancing south and central Asian climate monitoring and indices. Pune, India, February 14–19, 2005, CLIVAR Exch., 10, 6Google Scholar
- Peterson TC, et al (2002) Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 107 (D21): ACL 16-1-ACL 16-9.Google Scholar
- Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa dos (2011) Trends in indices for extremes in daily air temperature over Utah, USA. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia 26:19-28Google Scholar
- Seepersad J (1977) An analysis of droughts in Trinidad. B. Sc. Thesis. McGill UniversityGoogle Scholar
- Sensoy S, Peterson TC, Alexander L, Zhang X (2007) Meeting summary: enhancing Middle East climate change monitoring and indexes. 88:1249-1254Google Scholar
- Skansi M.et al (2013) Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America. Global and Planetary Change no. 100 (0):295-307. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.004.
- Stone RJ (2001) Changing seasonal rainfall patterns in Trinidad: myth or reality. West Indian J Eng 23(2):9–16Google Scholar
- Stone R (2008) The alleged surface air temperature rise in Trinidad: climate change or thermometer change? The16th CAS Biennial Conference on Science and Technology Vehicles for Sustainable Economic Development in the Caribbean; 11-13 October 2008. 296-301Google Scholar
- Trinidad and Tobago meteorological services (2009) climate: the geography and climate of Trinidad and Tobago Accessed May 25, 2009. http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/climate/article.aspx?id=4820.
- Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Klein Tank A (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Climate change 2007. In: Solomon SD, Qin M, Manning Z, Chen M, Marquis KB, Tignor AM, Miller HL (eds) The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, ambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
- Trinidad and Tobago. Central Statistical Office (CSO). (2012) Country Introduction. Chapter 1. Accessed May 5 2012. http://www.cso.gov.tt/files/statistics/Chapter%201.pdf.
- Trinidad and Tobago. Water Resources Agency (2001) Integrating the management of watersheds and coastal areas in Trinidad and Tobago. Prepared by the Water Resource Agency for the Ministry of the Environment, Complex Independent Square, Port of Spain. Assessed 12 May 2013. http://www.oas.org/reia/IWCAM/pdf/Trinidad%20and%20Tobago/Trinidad%20and%20Tobago%20National%20Report.PDF.
- Vincent L(2012) Calculating climate indices using RClimDex. Last assessed 3 February 2014. http://www.google.tt/url?sa = t&rct = j&q = &esrc = s&source = web&cd = 2&cad = rja&ved = 0CCoQFjAB&url = http%3A%2 F%2Fetccdi.pacificclimate.org%2FRClimDex%2FRClimDexUserManual.doc&ei = CQX9UvzRG9HukQftmYCwAg&usg = AFQjCNFHk5A6R5v1xANSoQK9O1s_DuVRUQ&bvm = bv.61190604,d.eW0
- Wehekind L and Smith GW (1955) Trinidad rainfall, 1933-1952 and rainfall reliability. Government Printery Office. Trinidad, British West IndiesGoogle Scholar
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2013) The global climate 2001-2010: a decade of climate extremes. Accessed July 7, 2013. http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/wmo_1103_en.pdf.Google Scholar