Interannual variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China
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The observed winter (DJF) precipitation in Southeast China (1961–2010) is characterized by a monopole pattern of the 3-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) whose interannual variability is related to the anomalies of East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) systems. Dynamic composites and linear regression analysis indicate that the intensity of EAWM and Siberia High (SH), the position of East Asian Trough (EAT), and El Niño events and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over South China Sea (SCS) influence different regions of anomalous Southeast China winter precipitation on interannual scales. The circulation indices (EAWM index, SH index, and EAT index) mainly affect the winter precipitation in the eastern part of Southeast China. El Niño events affect the South China winter precipitation due to the anticyclone anomalies over Philippines. The effect of SCS SST anomalies on the winter precipitation is mainly in the southern part of Yangtze River. Thus, a set of circulation regimes, represented by a handful indices, provide the basis for modeling precipitation anomalies or extremes in future climate projections.
KeywordsStandardize Precipitation Index Empirical Orthogonal Function Pacific Decadal Oscillation Winter Precipitation Yangtze River Basin
This study acknowledges the support of the National Basic Research Program “973” of China (2012CB955200), Key Laboratory of Meteorology Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME1102), Max Planck of Meteorology Institute (MPI) fellowship, and Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD).
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