Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 117, Issue 3–4, pp 707–721 | Cite as

Influence of climatic factors on the low yields of spring barley and winter wheat in Southern Moravia (Czech Republic) during the 1961–2007 period

  • Petr Kolář
  • Miroslav Trnka
  • Rudolf Brázdil
  • Petr Hlavinka
Original Paper

Abstract

The paper aims to study the variability of spring barley and winter wheat yields, the most important crops in the Czech Republic, with respect to the variability of weather and climatic factors. Yields of both crops have been studied for 13 districts in Southern Moravia for the 1961–2007 period. From detrended series of spring barley and winter wheat yields, years with very low (lower than the mean minus a 2.5-multiple of the standard deviation) and extremely low (interval given by the mean minus a 1.5- and 2.5-multiple of the standard deviation) yields were selected. Years in which at least one of the districts had extremely low/very low yields were further analyzed. From 10 such years selected separately for spring barley and winter wheat, six of them agreed for both crops. Extreme years were studied using NUTS4-level yield data with respect to temperature, precipitation, the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), snow cover, frost patterns, and the onset and duration of select phenophases. Extremely/very low barley yields in 1993, 2000, and 2007 were related to high April–June (AMJ) temperatures, low AMJ precipitation totals, and negative AMJ scPDSI (indicating drought) with an earlier onset of flowering and full ripeness and shorter intervals from tillering to flowering and from flowering to full ripeness compared to the entire 1961–2007 mean. As for extremely/very low winter wheat yields, in addition to the previously mentioned factors, winter patterns also played an important role, particularly the occurrence of severe frosts with a coinciding lack of snow cover and a long-lasting snow cover (in highlands), indicating that low yields are the result of not only one unfavorable factor but a combination of several of them.

References

  1. Bičík I, Chromý P, Jančák V, Jeleček L, Štěpánek V, Winklerová J, Kupková L (2001) Land use/land cover changes in Czechia over the past 150 years—an overview. In: Himiyama Y, Mather A, Bičík I, Milanova VE (eds) Land use/cover changes in selected regions in the world. IGU-LUCC, Hokkaido University of Education, Asahikawa, pp 29–39Google Scholar
  2. Brázdil R, Březina L, Dobrovolný P, Dubrovský M, Halásová O, Hostýnek J, Chromá K, Janderková J, Kaláb Z, Keprtová K, Kirchner K, Kotyza O, Krejčí O, Kunc J, Lacina J, Lepka J, Létal A, Macková J, Máčka Z, Mulíček O, Roštínský P, Řehánek T, Seidenglanz D, Semerádová D, Sokol Z, Soukalová E, Štekl J, Trnka M, Valášek H, Věžník A, Voženílek V, Žalud Z (2007) Vybrané přírodní extrémy a jejich dopady na Moravě a ve Slezsku (Selected natural extremes and their impacts in Moravia and Silesia). Masaryk University, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Institute of Geonics. Academy of Science of the Czech Republic, Brno, Praha, Ostrava, p 432Google Scholar
  3. Brázdil R, Máčka Z, Řezníčková L, Soukalová E, Dobrovolný P, Grygar T (2011) Floods and floodplain changes of the River Morava, the Strážnické Pomoraví region (Czech Republic) over the past 130 years. Hydrol Sci J 56:1166–1185CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brázdil R, Zahradníček P, Pišoft P, Štěpánek P, Bělínová M, Dobrovolný P (2012) Temperature and precipitation fluctuations in the Czech Republic during the period of instrumental measurements. Theor Appl Climatol 110:17–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Chloupek O, Hrstková P, Schweigert P (2004) Yield and its stability, crop diversity, adaptability and response to climate change, weather and fertilisation over 75 years in the Czech Republic in comparison to some European countries. Field Crop Res 85:167–190CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Czech Statistical Office (1981) Definitivní údaje o sklizni zemědělských plodin za rok 1980 (Final harvest data of agricultural crops in 1980). Český statistický úřad, Brno, p 194Google Scholar
  7. Eitzinger J, Trnka M, Semerádová D, Thaler S, Svobodová E, Hlavinka P, Šiška B, Takáč J, Malatinská L, Nováková M, Dubrovský M, Žalud Z (2012) Regional climate change impacts on agricultural crop production in Central and Eastern Europe—hotspots, regional differences and common trends. J Agric Sci. doi:10.1017/S0021859612000767, onlineGoogle Scholar
  8. Fischer G, Shah M, Tubiello FN, van Velhuizen H (2005) Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Philos Trans R Soc B 360:2067–2083CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Heim RR (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1149–1165Google Scholar
  10. Hlavinka P, Trnka M, Semerádová D, Dubrovský M, Žalud Z, Možný M (2009) Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech Republic. Agric For Meteorol 149:431–442CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Kristensen K, Schelde K, Olesen JE (2011) Winter wheat yield response to climate variability in Denmark. J Agric Sci 149:33–47CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Landau S, Mitchell RAC, Barnett V, Colls JJ, Craigon J, Payne RW (2000) A parsimonious, multiple-regression model of wheat yield response to environment. Agric For Meteorol 101:151–166CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Lavalle C, Micale F, Houston TD, Camia A, Hiederer R, Lazar C, Conte C, Amatulli G, Genovese G (2009) Climate change in Europe. 3. Impact on agriculture and forestry. A review. Agron Sustain Dev 29:433–446CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Sci 29:616–620CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Olesen JE, Bindi M (2002) Consequences of climate change for European agriculture productivity, land use and policy. Eur J Agron 16:239–262CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Olesen JE, Trnka M, Kersebaum KC, Skjelvag AO, Seguin B, Peltonen-Sainio P, Rossi F, Kozyra J, Micale F (2011) Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change. Eur J Agron 34:96–112CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Olesen JE, Børgensen CD, Elsgaard L, Palosuo T, Rötter R, Skjelvåg AO, Peltonen-Sainio P, Börjesson T, Trnka M, Ewert F, Siebert S, Brisson N, Eitzinger J, van der Fels-Klerx HJ, van Asselt E (2012) Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change. Food Addit Contam A 29:1527–1542CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological Drought. Office of Climatology Research Paper 45. U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, p 58Google Scholar
  19. Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Hakala K (2009) Are there indications of climate change induced increases in variability of major field crops in the northernmost European conditions? Agric Food Sci 18:206–226CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Trnka M, Olesen JE, Calanca PL, Eckersten H, Eitzinger J, Gobin A, Kersebaum KC, Kozyra J, Kumar S, Marta AD, Micale F, Schaap B, Seguin B, Skjelvag AO, Orlandini S (2010) Coincidence of variation in yield and climate in Europe. Agric Ecosyst Environ 139:483–489CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Petr J (ed) (1987) Počasí a výnosy (Weather and yields). Státní zemědělské nakladatelství, Praha, p 368Google Scholar
  22. Porter JR, Gawith M (1999) Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. Eur J Agron 10:23–36CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Quiring SM, Papakryiakou TN (2003) An evaluation of agricultural drought indices for the Canadian prairies. Agric For Meteorol 118:49–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Rajala A, Hakala K, Mäkelä P, Muurinen S, Peltonen-Sainio P (2009) Spring wheat response to timing of water deficit through sink and grain filling capacity. Field Crop Res 114:263–271CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Ramankutty N, Foley JA (1999) Estimating historical changes in global land cover: croplands from 1700 to 1992. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 13:997–1027CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Semenov MA, Shewry PR (2011) Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe. Sci Rep 1:66CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Soja G, Soja A, Eitzinger J, Gruszczynski G, Trnka M, Kubu G, Formayer H, Schneider W, Suppan F, Koukal T (2005) Analyse der Auswirkungen der Trockenheit 2003 in der Landswirtschaft Österreichs—Vergleich verschiedener Methoden. Endbericht von StartClim 2004.C: Analysen von Hitze und Trockenheit und deren Auswirkungen in Österreich. Endbericht, Auftraggeber: BMLFUW, BMBWK, BMWA, Österreichische Hagelversicherung, Österreichische Nationalbank, Umweltbundesamt, Verbund AHPGoogle Scholar
  28. Tomášek M (2000) Půdy České republiky (Soils of the Czech Republic). Česká geologická služba, Praha, p 67Google Scholar
  29. Trnka M, Hlavinka P, Semerádová D, Dubrovský M, Žalud Z, Možný M (2007) Agricultural drought and spring barley yields in the Czech Republic. Plant Soil Environ 53:306–316Google Scholar
  30. Trnka M, Dubrovský M, Svoboda M, Semerádová D, Hayes M, Žalud Z, Wilhite D (2009) Developing a regional drought climatology for the Czech Republic. Int J Climatol 29:863–883CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Trnka M, Kocmánková E, Balek J, Eitzinger J, Ruget F, Formayer H, Hlavinka P, Schaumberger A, Horáková V, Možný M, Žalud Z (2010) Simple snow cover model for agrometeorological applications. Agric For Meteorol 150:1115–1127CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Trnka M, Brázdil R, Olesen JE, Eitzinger J, Zahradníček P, Kocmánková E, Dobrovolný P, Štěpánek P, Možný M, Bartošová L, Hlavinka P, Semerádová D, Valášek H, Havlíček M, Horáková V, Fischer M, Žalud Z (2012) Could the changes in regional crop yields be a pointer of climatic change? Agric For Meteorol 166–167:62–71CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Ugarte C, Calderini DF, Slafer GA (2007) Grain weight and grain number responsiveness to pre-anthesis temperature in wheat, barley and triticale. Field Crop Res 100:240–248CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes MJ (2004) A self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index. J Clim 17:2335–2351CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Zahradníček P, Trnka M, Brázdil R, Možný M, Dobrovolný P, Štěpánek P, Hlavinka P, Semerádová D (2013) The extreme drought episode August 2011–May 2012 in the Czech Republic, in preparationGoogle Scholar
  36. Zimolka J (ed) (2006) Ječmen—formy a užitkové směry v České republice (Barley—forms and ways of utilisation in the Czech Republic). Profi-Press, Praha, p 200Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Petr Kolář
    • 1
    • 2
  • Miroslav Trnka
    • 2
    • 3
  • Rudolf Brázdil
    • 1
    • 2
  • Petr Hlavinka
    • 2
    • 3
  1. 1.Faculty of Science, Institute of GeographyMasaryk UniversityBrnoCzech Republic
  2. 2.Global Change Research Centre AS CRBrnoCzech Republic
  3. 3.Faculty of Agronomy, Institute of Agrosystems and BioclimatologyMendel UniversityBrnoCzech Republic

Personalised recommendations