Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 116, Issue 3–4, pp 501–514 | Cite as

Seasonal prediction for tropical cyclone frequency around Taiwan using teleconnection patterns

Original Paper
  • 164 Downloads

Abstract

In this study, a statistical model is developed to predict the frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) that influence Taiwan in boreal summer. Predictors are derived from large-scale environments from February to May in six regions, including four atmospheric circulation predictors over the western sea and eastern sea of Australia, the subtropical western North Pacific (SWNP), and the eastern sea of North America, and two sea surface temperature predictors in the Southeast Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic. The statistical model is verified based on statistical cross-validation tests and by contrasting the differences in the large-scale environments between high and low TC frequency years hindcasted by the model. The results show the relationships of two atmospheric circulation predictors and one SST predictor around Australia with Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) pattern, as well as the relationships of those in the SWNP and around eastern sea of North America with Pacific/North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. When the anomalous anticyclone around Australia (positive AAO pattern) and the one over the region from eastern sea of North America and the Aleutian Islands to the SWNP (negative PNA pattern) are both strengthened from February, the trade wind in the equatorial Pacific is intensified and consequently plays an important role in steering TCs towards Taiwan during boreal summer.

References

  1. Chan JCL, Shi JE, Lam CM (1998) Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Wea Forecasting 13:997–1004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Chan JCL, Shi JE, Liu KS (2001) Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Wea Forecast 16:491–498CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Chen TC, Wang SY, Yen MC (2006) Interannual variation of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim 19:5709–5720CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Choi KS, Kim DW, Byun HR (2009) Statistical model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone frequency around Korea. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 45:21–32Google Scholar
  5. Choi KS, Moon JY, Chu PS, Kim DW (2010) Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific using teleconnection patterns. Theor Appl Climatol 100:191–206CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chu PS, Zhao X, Lee CT, Lu MM (2007) Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method. Terr Atmos and Ocean Sc 18:805–825CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Elsner JB, Liu KB (2003) Examining the ENSO-typhoon hypothesis. Clim Res 25:43–54CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Elsner JB, Schmertmann CP (1993) Improving extended range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Wea Forecast 8:345–351CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Fan K, Wang HJ (2009) A new approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the western North Pacific. Wea Forecast 24:974–986CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Gong DY, Ho CH (2003) Arctic oscillation signals in the East Asian summer monsoon. J Geophys Res 108(D2):4066. doi:10.1029/2002JD002193 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Gong DY, Wang S (1999) Definition of Antarctic oscillation index. Geophys Res Lett 26:459–462CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Gray WM, Landsea CW, Mielke PW, Berry KJ (1992) Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6–11 months in advance. Wea Forecast 7:440–455CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Gray WM, Landsea CW, Mielke PW, Berry KJ (1993) Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August. Wea Forecast 8:73–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Gray WM, Landsea CW, Mielke PW, Berry KJ (1994) Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 June. Wea Forecast 9:103–115CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Hess JC, Elsner JB (1994) Historical developments leading to current forecast models of annual Atlantic hurricane activity. Bull Am Meteor Soc 75:1611–1621CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Ho CH, Kim JH, Kim HS, Sui CH, Gong FY (2005) Possible influence of the Antarctic Oscillation on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. J Geophys Res 110: doi:10.1029/2005JD005766
  17. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteor Soc 77:437–471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kistler R, Kalnay E, Collins W, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Kanamitsu M, Kousky V, van den Dool H, Jenne R, Fiorino M (2001) The NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis. Bull Am Meteor Soc 82:247–267CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Klotzbach PJ (2007) Revised prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August. Wea Forecast 22:937–949CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Kwon HJ, Lee WJ, Won SH, Cha EJ (2007) Statistical ensemble prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 34, L24805. doi:10.1029/2007GL032308 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Lee WJ, Park JS, Kwon HJ (2007) A statistical model for prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J Korean Meteorol Soc 43:175–183CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Lehmiller GS, Kimberlain TB, Elsner JB (1997) Seasonal prediction models for North Atlantic basin hurricane location. Mon Wea Rev 125:1780–1791CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Liu KS, Cahn JCL (2003) Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast. Mon Wea Rev 131:1650–1662CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Lu MM, Chu PS, Lin YC (2010) Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the Bayesian multivariate regression method. Wea Forecast 25:1780–1795CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Lu MM, Lee CT, Wang B (2012) Seasonal prediction of accumulated tropical cyclone kinetic energy around Taiwan and the sources of the predictability. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3634 (online published)Google Scholar
  26. Ramaswamy C, Pareek RS (1978) The southwest monsoon over Indian and its teleconnections with the middle and upper tropospheric flow patterns over the Southern Hemisphere. Tellus 30:126–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Rodwell MJ (1997) Breaks in the Asian monsoon: the influence of Southern Hemisphere weather systems. J Atmos Sci 54: doi:10.1029/2005GL022419 2597–2611.Google Scholar
  29. Rogers JC (1990) Patterns of low-frequency monthly sea level pressure variability (1899–1986) and associated wave cycle and frequencies. J Clim 3:1364–1379CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation, part II: trends. J Clim 13:1018–1036CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Velden CS, Leslie LM (1991) The basic relationship between tropical cyclone intensity and the depth of the environmental steering layer in the Australian region. Wea Forecast 6:244–253CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Wallace JM, Gutzler DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon Wea Rev 109:784–812CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Wang B, Chan JCL (2002) How strong ENSO affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim 15:1643–1658CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Wilks DS (1995) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, San Diego, p 467Google Scholar
  35. Wu MC, Chang WL, Leung WL (2004) Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on tropical cyclone landfalling activity in the western North Pacific. J Clim 15:1419–1428CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Xue F, Wang HJ, He JH (2004) Interannual variability of Mascarene High and Australian High and their influences on East Asian summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jp 82:1173–1186CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Zhou BT, Cui X (2008) Hadley circulation signal in the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. J Geophys Res 113, D16107. doi:10.1029/2007JD009156 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Zhou BT, Cui X (2011) Sea surface temperature east of Australia: a predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific? Chinese Sci Bull 56:196–201CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Typhoon CenterKorea Meteorological AdministrationJejuKorea
  2. 2.Department of Atmospheric SciencesNational Taiwan UniversityTaipeiTaiwan
  3. 3.International Pacific Research Center and Department of MeteorologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluUSA

Personalised recommendations