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Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 114, Issue 1–2, pp 253–269 | Cite as

Description and validation of a two-step analogue/regression downscaling method

  • J. RibalayguaEmail author
  • L. Torres
  • J. Pórtoles
  • R. Monjo
  • E. Gaitán
  • M. R. Pino
Original Paper

Abstract

This study describes a two-step analogue statistical downscaling method for daily temperature and precipitation. The first step is an analogue approach: the “n” days most similar to the day to be downscaled are selected. In the second step, a multiple regression analysis using the “n” most analogous days is performed for temperature, whereas for precipitation, the probability distribution of the “n” analogous days is used to define the amount of precipitation. Verification of this method has been carried out for the Spanish Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Results show good performance for temperature (BIAS close to 0.1 °C and mean absolute errors around 1.9 °C) and an acceptable skill for precipitation (reasonably low BIAS except in autumn with a mean of −18 %, mean absolute error lower than for a reference simulation, i.e. persistence and a well-simulated probability distribution according to two non-parametric tests of similarity).

Keywords

Statistical Downscaling Mean Absolute Error Balearic Island ERA40 Reanalysis Analogue Technique 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgments

This study was partly supported by the Ministry of Science and Innovation funding under the GENCEI project (contract no. CGL2005-06600-C03-03, 2006–2008). The authors thank the Spanish Meteorology Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología – AEMET) for providing the observed data set and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for offering the ERA-40 reanalysis data (http://data-portal.ecmwf.int/data/d/era40_daily). We also thank Clare Goodess (Climate Research Unit, East Anglia University) for her help.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • J. Ribalaygua
    • 1
    Email author
  • L. Torres
    • 1
  • J. Pórtoles
    • 1
  • R. Monjo
    • 1
  • E. Gaitán
    • 1
  • M. R. Pino
    • 2
  1. 1.Fundación para la Investigación del ClimaMadridSpain
  2. 2.Instituto de Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ciencias de la SaludUniversidad de San JorgeZaragozaSpain

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