Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 113, Issue 3–4, pp 407–427 | Cite as

Modeling monthly mean air temperature for Brazil

  • Clayton Alcarde Alvares
  • José Luiz Stape
  • Paulo Cesar Sentelhas
  • José Leonardo de Moraes Gonçalves
Original Paper


Air temperature is one of the main weather variables influencing agriculture around the world. Its availability, however, is a concern, mainly in Brazil where the weather stations are more concentrated on the coastal regions of the country. Therefore, the present study had as an objective to develop models for estimating monthly and annual mean air temperature for the Brazilian territory using multiple regression and geographic information system techniques. Temperature data from 2,400 stations distributed across the Brazilian territory were used, 1,800 to develop the equations and 600 for validating them, as well as their geographical coordinates and altitude as independent variables for the models. A total of 39 models were developed, relating the dependent variables maximum, mean, and minimum air temperatures (monthly and annual) to the independent variables latitude, longitude, altitude, and their combinations. All regression models were statistically significant (α ≤ 0.01). The monthly and annual temperature models presented determination coefficients between 0.54 and 0.96. We obtained an overall spatial correlation higher than 0.9 between the models proposed and the 16 major models already published for some Brazilian regions, considering a total of 3.67 × 108 pixels evaluated. Our national temperature models are recommended to predict air temperature in all Brazilian territories.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Clayton Alcarde Alvares
    • 1
  • José Luiz Stape
    • 2
    • 5
  • Paulo Cesar Sentelhas
    • 3
  • José Leonardo de Moraes Gonçalves
    • 4
  1. 1.Forestry Science and Research Institute (IPEF) and Forest Productivity Cooperative (FPC)PiracicabaBrazil
  2. 2.Department of Forestry and Environmental ResourcesNorth Carolina State UniversityRaleighUSA
  3. 3.College of Agriculture “Luiz de Queiroz”, Department of Biosystems EngineeringUniversity of Sao PauloPiracicabaBrazil
  4. 4.College of Agriculture “Luiz de Queiroz”, Department of Forestry SciencesUniversity of Sao PauloPiracicabaBrazil
  5. 5.Forest Productivity Cooperative (FPC)RaleighUSA

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