Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 108, Issue 1–2, pp 9–18 | Cite as

Change-point analysis for serially correlated summit temperatures in the Romanian Carpathians

  • Adina-Eliza Croitoru
  • Dorin Drignei
  • Iulian-Horia Holobaca
  • Carmen Sofia Dragota
Original Paper

Abstract

Characterizing climatic changes in the high-altitude mountain regions helps scientists and policy makers understand the effects of such changes on water resources, economic development, and the health of ecosystems. This paper proposes a change-point analysis to determine the time and magnitude of summer temperature changes in the summit areas of Romanian Carpathians between 1961 and 2007. Due to their altitude, massiveness, and position, Romanian Carpathians are an important barrier for different types of air masses between Western and Southeastern Europe. The results show that the change in summer temperatures occurred shortly after 1980. The average magnitude of this change is consistent with changes occurring in other parts of Southern Europe in the same time period although the magnitude of changes at individual weather stations may differ substantially. We aided our analysis by a statistical method based on regression models with serially correlated ARMA errors.

Notes

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the daily data freely available through the “European Climate Assessment and Dataset” project initiated by the European Climate Support Network and supported by the Network of European Meteorological Services (Klein Tank et al. 2002).

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Adina-Eliza Croitoru
    • 1
  • Dorin Drignei
    • 2
  • Iulian-Horia Holobaca
    • 1
  • Carmen Sofia Dragota
    • 3
  1. 1.Faculty of Geography, Physical and Technical Geography DepartmentBabes-Bolyai UniversityCluj-NapocaRomania
  2. 2.Department of Mathematics and StatisticsOakland UniversityRochesterUSA
  3. 3.Institute of GeographyRomanian Science AcademyBucharestRomania

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