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Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 102, Issue 1–2, pp 171–184 | Cite as

Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in Croatia

  • K. Cindrić
  • Z. Pasarić
  • M. Gajić-Čapka
Original Paper

Abstract

Systematic statistical analysis of dry day sequences, which are defined according to 0.1, 1, 5 and 10 mm of precipitation-per-day thresholds, is performed on seasonal and yearly basis. The data analysed come from 25 Croatian meteorological stations and cover the period 1961–2000. Climatological features of the mean and maximum dry spell durations, as well as the frequency of long dry spells (>20 days) are discussed. The results affirm the three main climatological regions in Croatia, with the highlands exhibiting shorter dry spells than the mainland, and the coastal region exhibiting longer dry spells. The prevailing positive trend of both mean and maximal durations is detected during winter and spring seasons, while negative trend dominate in autumn for all thresholds. Positive field significant trends of mean dry spell duration with 5 and 10 mm thresholds are found during spring and the same is valid for annual maximum dry spell duration with a 10 mm threshold. It is found that the Discrete Autoregressive Moving Average (DARMA(1,1)) model can be used to estimate the probabilities of dry spells in Croatia that are up to 20–30 days long.

Keywords

Weather Type Trend Pattern Significant Positive Trend Adriatic Coast Extreme Precipitation Index 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgment

Two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged for their detailed and constructive suggestions. The work was supported by the Croatian Ministry of Science, Education and Sports (grants 119-1193086-3085, 119-1193086-1323 and 004-1193086-3035).

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Meteorological and Hydrological ServiceZagrebCroatia
  2. 2.Department of Geophysics, Faculty of ScienceUniversity of ZagrebZagrebCroatia

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