Nonlinear dynamics of meteorological variables: multifractality and chaotic invariants in daily records from Pastaza, Ecuador
Weather represents the daily state of the atmosphere. It is usually considered as a chaotic nonlinear dynamical system. The objectives of the present study were (1) to investigate multifractal meteorological trends and rhythms at the Amazonian area of Ecuador and (2) to estimate some nonlinear invariants for describing the meteorological dynamics. Six meteorological variables were considered in the study. Datasets were collected on a daily basis from January 1st 2001 to January 1st 2005 (1,460 observations). Based on a new multifractal method, we found interesting fractal rhythms and trends of antipersistence patterns (Fractal Dimension >1.5). Nonlinear time series analyses rendered Lyapunov exponent spectra containing more than one positive Lyapunov exponent in some cases. This sort of hyperchaotic structures could explain, to some extent, larger fractal dimension values as the Kaplan–Yorke dimension was also in most cases larger than two. The maximum prediction time ranged from ξ = 1.69 days (approximately 41 h) for E/P ratio to ξ = 14.71 days for evaporation. Nonlinear dynamics analyses could be combined with multifractal studies for describing the time evolution of meteorological variables.
KeywordsFractal Dimension Lyapunov Exponent Pacific Decadal Oscillation Multifractal Spectrum Positive Lyapunov Exponent
This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Serbia (projects 143045 and 143027). We thank National Institute of Meteorology and Hydraulic Resources (I.N.A.M.H.I, Ecuador) for access to the climatic database. The present investigation was conducted while the first author served as an invited professor of Environmental Physics at Amazonian State University (Ecuador).
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