Advertisement

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 86, Issue 1–4, pp 147–160 | Cite as

Effect of remote forcings on the winter precipitation of central southwest Asia part 1: observations

  • F. S. Syed
  • F. Giorgi
  • J. S. Pal
  • M. P. King
Article

Summary

We investigate the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on winter precipitation in Central Southwest Asia (CSWA) using an analysis of available observed climate data. The analysis is based on correlations, composites and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) performed using the gridded dataset of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and station data for the region. We find that both the NAO and ENSO affect climate over the region. In particular a positive precipitation anomaly is typically found in correspondence of the positive NAO phase and warm ENSO phase over a sub-region encompassing northern Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and southern Uzbekistan. This conclusion is supported by a consistency across the different analysis methods and observation datasets employed in our study. A physical mechanism for such effect is proposed, by which western disturbances are intensified over the region as they encounter a low pressure trough, which is a dominant feature during positive NAO and warm ENSO conditions. Our results give encouraging indications towards the development of statistically-based prediction tools for winter precipitation over the CSWA region.

Keywords

Singular Value Decomposition North Atlantic Oscillation Winter Precipitation Southern Oscillation Index Climatic Research Unit 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Agrawala S, Barlow M, Cullen H, Lyon B (2001) The drought and humanitarian crisis in central and southwest Asia: a climate perspective. IRI Report, IRI, Palisade, NY. Available at: http://iri.columbia.edu/outreach/publication/irireport/SWAsia/index.html [Accessed 15 July 2004]
  2. Barlow, M, Cullen, H, Lyon, B 2002Drought in central and southwest Asia: La Nina, the warm pool, and Indian Ocean precipitationJ Clim15697700CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bojariu R, Giorgi F (2005) The north Atlantic oscillation signal in a regional climate simulation for the European region. Tellus A (in press)Google Scholar
  4. Bretherton, CS, Smith, C, Wallace, JM 1992An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate dataJ Clim5541560CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Cintia, B, Uvo, C 2003Analysis and regionalization of Northern European winter precipitation based on its relationship with the North Atlantic oscillationInt J Climatol2311851194CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Cubasch U et al (2001) Projections of future climate change. In: Climate change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp 525–582Google Scholar
  7. Cullen, H, deMenocal, PB 2000North Atlantic influence on Tigris Euphrates stream flowInt J Climatol20853863CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Hoerling, M, Kumar, A 2003The perfect ocean for droughtScience299691694CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Visbeck M, Ottersen G (2003) An overview of the North Atlantic oscillation. The North Atlantic oscillation: Climate significance and environmental impact. AGU Geophysical Monograph Series, 134Google Scholar
  10. Hurrell, JW 1995Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation: regional temperature and precipitationScience269676679Google Scholar
  11. Hurrell, JW 1996Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperatureGeophys Res Lett23665668CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Hurrell, JW, van Loon, H 1997Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic oscillationClimatic Change36301326CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Jacobeit, J, Jonsson, P, Barring, L, Beck, C, Ekstrom, M 2001Zonal indices for Europe (1780–1995) and running correlations with temperatureClimatic Change48219241CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Jafar NM, Zeinolabedin S (2003) The influence of the North Atlantic oscillation on autumnal precipitation over Western and Northwestern parts of Iran. Book of Abstracts p 45, climate processes and climate change. RMS Conference UEA, NorwichGoogle Scholar
  15. Kalnay, E, Kanamitsu, M, Kistler, R, Collins, W, Deaven, D, Gandin, L, Iredell, M, Saha, S, White, G, Woollen, J, Zhu, Y, Chelliah, M, Ebisuzaki, W, Higgins, W, Janowiak, J, Mo, KC, Ropelewski, C, Wang, J, Leetmaa, A, Reynolds, R, Jenne, B, Joseph, D 1996The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis projectBull Amer Meteor Soc77437472CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Maheras, P, Patrikas, I, Karacostas, Th, Anagnostopoulou, Chr 2000Automatic classification of circulation types in Greece: methodology, description, frequency, variability and trend analysisTheor Appl Climatol67205223CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Maheras, P, Flocas, HA, Patrikas, I, Anagnostopoulou, Chr 2001A 40 year objective climatology of surface cyclones in the Mediterranean region: spatial and temporal distributionInt J Climatol21109130CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Martyn D (1992) Climates of the world. Elsevier first edition, 436 ppGoogle Scholar
  19. Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2003) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios (2001–2100). J Climate (submitted)Google Scholar
  20. New, M, Hulme, M, Jones, P 2000Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability. Part 2: development of 1901–96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climateJ Climate1322172238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Newman, M, Sardeshmukh, PD 1995A caveat concerning singular value decompositionJ Climate8352360CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Pisharoty, PR, Desai, BN 1956Western disturbances and Indian weatherIndian J Meteorol8333338Google Scholar
  23. Rodwell, MJ, Rowell, DP, Folland, CK 1999Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic oscillation and European climateNature398320323CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Ropelewski, CF, Halpert, MS 1996Quantifying southern oscillation precipitation relationshipsJ Climate910431059CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Sahsamanoglou, H, Makrogiannis, T, Kallimopoulos, P 1991Some aspects of the basic characteristics of the Siberian anticycloneInt J Climatol11827839CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Sen, Z, Eljadid, AG 1999Rainfall distribution function for Libya and rainfall predictionHydrol Sci J44665680CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Thompson, LG, Yao, T, Mosley-Thompson, E, Davis, ME, Henderson, KA, Lin, PN 2000A high resolution millennial record of the South Asian Monsoon from Himalayan ice coresScience28919161919CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Trenberth, KE, Branstator, GW, Karoly, D, Kumar, A, Lau, N-C, Ropelewski, C 1998Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperaturesJ Geophys Res (special TOGA issue)1031429114324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Trigo, IF, Davies, TD 2000Decline in Mediterranean rainfall caused by weakening of Mediterranean cyclonesGeophys Res Lett2729132916CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Uvo, C, Berndtsson, R 1996Regionalization and special properties of Ceara state rainfall in northeast BrazilJ Geophys Res10142214233CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Uvo, CRB, Repelli, CA, Zebiak, SE, Kushnir, Y 1998The relationship between tropical pacific and Atlantic SST and northeast Brazil monthly precipitationJ Climate11551562CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Wallace, JM, Smith, C, Bretherton, CS 1992Singular value decomposition of wintertime sea surface temperature and 500-mb height anomaliesJ Climate5561576CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Wallace, JM, Zang, Y, Lau, K-H 1993Structure and seasonality of interannual and interdecadal variability of geopotential height and temperature fields in the Northern hemisphere troposphereJ Climate620632082CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • F. S. Syed
    • 1
  • F. Giorgi
    • 2
  • J. S. Pal
    • 2
  • M. P. King
    • 2
  1. 1.Global Change Impact Studies Centre/Pakistan Meteorological DepartmentIslamabadPakistan
  2. 2.Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsTriesteItaly

Personalised recommendations