Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 86, Issue 1–4, pp 125–145 | Cite as

On the capability of RegCM to capture extremes in long term regional climate simulation – comparison with the observations for Czech Republic

  • T. Halenka
  • J. Kalvová
  • Z. Chládová
  • A. Demeterová
  • K. Zemánková
  • M. Belda
Article
First Online:
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:

Summary

We analyze daily precipitation and temperature extremes over the Czech Republic in a regional climate simulation for the 40-year period of 1961–2000 carried out with the RegCM3 regional climate model. The model is run at 45 km grid interval and is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis lateral boundary conditions. Comparison with station data shows that the model performs reasonably well in simulating the frequency of daily precipitation events of medium to high intensity as well as the precipitation intensities (return levels) of long return periods, with the exception of mountain stations. While this is attributed mainly to the relatively coarse representation of topography across the area of the Czech Republic, the parameterization of convection can be another reason. The model underestimates daily maximum temperature (especially in the warm seasons) and as a result the occurrence of heat waves (high temperature episodes). The performance of the model improves in the simulation of daily minimum temperature and cold wave events. In order to apply this regional model to the simulation of extreme events over the complex terrain as for Czech Republic we recommend that a higher resolution is used in order to better describe the topography of the Czech Republic and that the daily maximum temperature bias is reduced.

Keywords

Return Period Heat Wave Regional Climate Model Daily Precipitation Generalize Extreme Value 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Beniston, M, Stephenson, DB 2004Extreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditionsGlobal Planet Change4419CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Farago T, Katz RW (1990) Extremes and design values in climatology. World Climate Applications Programme, WCAP-14, WMO/TD-No. 386, 43 pGoogle Scholar
  3. Frei, C, Christensen, JH, Deque, M, Jacob, D, Jones, RG, Vidale, PL 2003Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European AlpsJ Geophys Res1084124CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Frei, C, Schaer, C 2001Detection probability of trends in rare events: theory and application to heavy precipitation in the Alpine regionJ Climate1415681584CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Giorgi, F, Marinucci, MR, Bates, GT 1993aDevelopment of a second generation regional climate model (RegCM2). Part I: Boundary layer and radiative transfer processesMon Wea Rev12127942813CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Giorgi, F, Marinucci, MR, Bates, GT, DeCanio, G 1993bDevelopment of a second generation regional climate model (RegCM2). Part II: Convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditionsMon Wea Rev12128142832CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Giorgi, F, Mearns, LO 1999Introduction to special section: regional climate modeling revisitedJ Geophys Res10463356352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Giorgi, F, Huang, Y, Nishizawa, K, Fu, C 1999A seasonal cycle simulation over eastern Asia and its sensitivity to radiative transfer and surface processesJ Geophys Res10464036423CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Giorgi F, Hewitson B, Christensen JH, Hulme M, vonStorch H, Whetton P, Jones R, Mearns LO, Fu C (2001) Regional climate information – evaluation and projections. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Xiaoxu D (eds) Chapter 10 of climate change 2001; the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp 583–638Google Scholar
  10. Giorgi, F, Bi, X, Pal, J 2004Means, trends and interannual variability in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. Part I: Present day climate (1961–1990)Climate Dynamics22736756CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Gutowski, WJ,Jr, Decker, SG, Donavon, RA, Pan, Z, Arritt, RW, Takle, ES 2003Temporal-spatial scales of observed and simulated precipitation in Central U.S. climateJ Climate1638413847CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Huntingford, C, Jones, RG, Prudhomme, C, Lamb, R, Gash, JHC, Jones, DA 2003Regional climate-model predictions of extreme rainfall for a changing climateQuart J Roy Meteor Soc12916071621CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Huth, R, Mládek, R, Metelka, L, Sedlák, P, Huthová, Z, Kliegrová, S, Kyselý, J, Pokorná, L, Janoušek, M, Halenka, T 2003On the integrability of limited-area numerical weather prediction model ALADIN over extended time periodsStudia geoph geod47863873CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. IPCC (2001) Climate Change. The IPCC Third Assessment Report. Volumes I (Science), II (Impacts and Adaptation) and III (Mitigation Strategie). Cambridge: Cambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
  15. Kalnay, E, Kanamitsu, M, Kistler, R, Collins, W, Deaven, D, Gandin, L, Iredell, M, Saha, S, White, G, Woollen, J, Zhu, Y, Chelliah, M, Ebisusaki, W, Higgins, W, Janowiak, J, Mo, KC, Ropelewski, C, Wang, J, Leetma, A, Reynolds, R, Jenne, R, Joseph, D 1996The NCEP/NCAR 40-year re-analysis projectBull Amer Meteor Soc77437471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Kanamitsu, M, Ebisuzaki, W, Woollen, J, Yang, S-K, Hnilo, JJ, Fiorion, M, Potter, J 2002NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)Bull Amer Meteor Soc8316311643CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Katz, RW, Brown, BG 1992Extreme events in a changing climate – variability is more important than averagesClimate Change21289302CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kistler, R, Kalnay, E, Collins, W, Saha, S, White, G, Woollen, J, Chelliah, M, Ebisuzaki, W, Kanamitsu, M, Kousky, V, van den Dool, H, Jenne, R, Fiorino, M 2001The NCEP/NCAR 50-year Reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentationBull Amer Meteor Soc82247267CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Mearns, LO, Giorgi, F, Shields Brodeur, C, McDaniel, L 1995Analysis of the variability of daily precipitation in a nested modeling experiment: comparison with observations and 2XCO2 resultsGlob Planet Change105578CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Meehl, GA, Tebaldi, C, Nychka, D 2004Changes in frost days in simulations of 21st century climateClim Dyn23495511CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Meehl, GA, Tebaldi, C 2004More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st centuryScience305994997CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2003) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios (2001–2100). J Climate (submitted)Google Scholar
  23. New, M, Hulme, M, Jones, P 1999Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 mean monthly terrestrial climatologyJ Climate12829856CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Pal, JS, Small, EE, Eltahir, EA 2000Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCMJ Geophys Res1052957929594CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X (2004) Consistency of recent European summer precipitation trends and extremes with future regional climate projections. Geophys Res Lett 31: L13202, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019836Google Scholar
  26. Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X, Elguindi N, Solmon F, Grimm A, Sloan L, Syed F, Zakey A (2005) The ICTP Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). Benchmark simulations over tropical regions. Bull Amer Meteor Soc (submitted)Google Scholar
  27. Reiss, RD, Thomas, M 1997Statistical analysis of extreme values with applications to insurance, finance, hydrology and other fieldsBirkhauserBasel, Switzerland316Google Scholar
  28. Schär, C, Vidale, PL, Luthi, D, Frei, C, Haberli, C, Liniger, MA, Appenzeller, C 2004The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heat wavesNature427332336CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Zolina, O, Kapala, A, Simmer, C, Gulev, SK 2004Analysis of extreme precipitation over Europe from different reanalyses: a comparative assessmentGlobal Planet Change44129161CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • T. Halenka
    • 1
    • 2
  • J. Kalvová
    • 1
  • Z. Chládová
    • 1
  • A. Demeterová
    • 1
  • K. Zemánková
    • 1
  • M. Belda
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Meteorology and Environment ProtectionCharles UniversityPragueCzech Republic
  2. 2.Regular associate of the Abdus Salam ICTPTriesteItaly

Personalised recommendations