Advertisement

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

, Volume 131, Issue 6, pp 1677–1696 | Cite as

The impacts of Arctic oscillation and the North Sea Caspian pattern on the temperature and precipitation regime in Turkey

  • Cenk Sezen
  • Turgay PartalEmail author
Original Paper
  • 140 Downloads

Abstract

Arctic oscillation (AO) and the North Sea Caspian pattern (NCP) are atmospheric teleconnections that affect climate parameters such as precipitation, temperature and stream flow. The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship of the AO and NCP with Turkey’s mean temperature and precipitation totals. First, Pearson correlation coefficients between the AO and NCP and climate data were calculated and the results were assessed using Student’s t test. Although the results vary from region to region, highly negative correlation coefficients were observed between either the NCP or AO and the temperature, especially in the winter. Furthermore, the NCP and AO have a remarkably strong relationship with winter precipitation. Second, the NCP index (NCPI) and AO index were divided into negative and positive phases; then, the impacts of both phases on the climatic data were determined as annual and seasonal. Accordingly, the annual and seasonal mean temperature values under the effect of NCP (−) and AO (−) are higher than the annual and seasonal temperature values under the effect of NCP (+) and AO (+). In this context, the temperature differences are significant, especially in winter. The precipitation amount, under the effect of positive and negative phases of global indices, was also investigated in this study. Thus, substantial results were obtained, particularly for winter precipitation in Turkey’s western regions. Finally, scatter diagrams were also prepared to examine the relationship between negative and positive phases of the AO or NCP and the temperature or precipitation.

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to Turkish State Meteorological Service for providing the temperature and precipitation data. Furthermore, we also would like to thank anonymous reviewer for sharing the NCP data which cover the period of 1960–2015 and improving the quality of this research paper.

References

  1. Bayazıt M, Yeğen Oğuz EB (2005) Mühendisler için istatistik. Birsen Yayınevi, İstanbulGoogle Scholar
  2. Brunetti M, Kutiel H (2011) The relevance of the North-Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) in explaining temperature variability in Europe and the Mediterranean. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:2881–2888CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Burt T, Howden N (2013) North Atlantic Oscillation amplifies orographic precipitation and river flow in upland Britain. Water Resour Res 49(6):3504–3515CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Cohen J, Foster J, Barlow M, Saito K, Jones J (2010) Winter 2009–2010: a case study of an extreme Arctic oscillation event. Geopys Res Lett 37(17):1–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. del Río S, Iqbal MA, Cano-Ortiz A, Herrero L, Hassan A, Penas A (2013) Recent mean temperature trends in Pakistan and links with teleconnection patterns. Int J Climatol 33(2):277–290CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Fendeková M, Pekárová P, Fendek M, Pekár J, Škoda P (2014) Global drivers effect in multi-annual variability of runoff. J Hydrol Hydromech 62(3):169–176CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Ghanghermeh A, Roshan G, Al-Yahyai S (2015) The influence of Atlantic-Eurasian teleconnection patterns on temperature regimes in South Caspian Sea coastal areas: a study of Golestan Province, North Iran. Pollution 1(1):67–83Google Scholar
  8. Ghasemi AR, Khalili D (2008) The effect of the North Sea-Caspian pattern (NCP) on winter temperatures in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 92(1–2):59–74CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Givati A, Rosenfeld D (2013) The Arctic oscillation, climate change and the effects on precipitation in Israel. Atmos Res 132:114–124CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Iqbal MA, Penas A, Cano-Ortiz A, Kersebaum K, Herrero L, del Río S (2016) Analysis of recent changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Pakistan. Atmos Res 168:234–249CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Kahya E, Karabörk MÇ (2001) The analysis of El Nino and La Nina signals in streamflows of Turkey. Int J Climatol 21(10):1231–1250CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Karabörk MÇ, Kahya E, Karaca M (2005) The influences of the Southern and North Atlantic Oscillations on climatic surface variables in Turkey. Hydrol Process 19(6):1185–1211CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Kutiel H, Benaroch Y (2002) North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP)–an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the Eastern Mediterranean: identification and definition. Theor Appl Climatol 71(1):17–28CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Kutiel H, Türkeş M (2005) New evidence for the role of the North Sea—Caspian Pattern on the temperature and precipitation regimes in continental central Turkey. Geografiska Annaler Ser A, Phys Geog 87(4):501–513CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Kutiel H, Maheras P, Türkeş M, Paz S (2002) North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP)–an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the eastern Mediterranean–implications on the regional climate. Theor Appl Climatol 72(3–4):173–192CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. López-Moreno JI, Vicente-Serrano SM, Morán-Tejeda E, Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Kenawy A, Beniston M (2011) Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains: observed relationships and projections for the 21st century. Glob Plan Change 77(1):62–76CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Nastos P, Philandras C, Founda D, Zerefos C (2011) Air temperature trends related to changes in atmospheric circulation in the wider area of Greece. Int J Remote Sens 32(3):737–750CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Philandras C, Nastos P, Kapsomenakis I, Repapis C (2015) Climatology of upper air temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Atmos Res 152:29–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Rodwell MJ, Rowell DP, Folland CK (1999) Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature. 398:320–323CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25:1297–1300CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Trigo RM, Osborn TJ, Corte-Real J (2002) The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on Europe: climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms. Clim Res 20:9–17CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Türkeş M, Erlat E (2003) Precipitation Changes and Variability in Turkey Linked to the North Athlantic Oscillation during period 1930–2000. Int J Climatol 23:1771–1796CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Türkeş M, Erlat E (2008) Influence of the Arctic oscillation on the variability of winter mean temperatures in Turkey. Theor Appl Climatol 92(1):75–85CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Türkeş M, Erlat E (2009) Winter mean temperature variability in Turkey associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Meteorol Atmos Phys 105(3–4):211–225CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI, El Kenawy AM, Angulo M (2009) Daily atmospheric circulation events and extreme precipitation risk in Northeast Spain: the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Western Mediterranean Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. J Geophys Res 114:1–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Ward PJ, Kummu M, Lall U (2016) Flood frequencies and durations and their response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: global analysis. J Hydrol 539:358–378CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Yeo SR, Kim W, Kim KY (2017) Eurasian snow cover variability in relation to warming trend and Arctic oscillation. Clim Dyn 48(1–2):499–511CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Zuo J, Ren HL, Li W (2015) Contrasting impacts of the Arctic oscillation on surface air temperature anomalies in southern China between early and middle-to-late winter. J Clim 28(10):4015–4026CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of EngineeringUniversity of Ondokuz MayısSamsunTurkey

Personalised recommendations