Summer precipitation in the Vosges-Black Forest-region: pre-COPS investigations
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As a preliminary investigation for the COPS experiment, a series of 10 rainy days from summer 2006 was studied with the Meso-NH model, run at very high-resolution (2 km), initialized and forced with the ECMWF and ARPEGE analyses. In most cases, the results were not very sensitive to the type of analysis and the model succeeded reasonably well in reproducing the observed precipitation. In the few cases for which the sensitivity to the analysis was significant, the model performance was quite poor. It seems that a discrepancy between the ECMWF- and ARPEGE-driven simulations could be an indicator of low predictability. Furthermore, model skill appears weaker for the precipitation occurring over the Black Forest than for the precipitation affecting the Vosges.
KeywordsRadar Observation Model Skill Hourly Precipitation Heidke Skill Score Potential Vorticity Anomaly
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