Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

, Volume 95, Issue 1–2, pp 115–121 | Cite as

Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years

  • Lin Zhen-Shan
  • Sun Xian


A novel multi-timescale analysis method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), is used to diagnose the variation of the annual mean temperature data of the global, Northern Hemisphere (NH) and China from 1881 to 2002. The results show that: (1) Temperature can be completely decomposed into four timescales quasi-periodic oscillations including an ENSO-like mode, a 6–8-year signal, a 20-year signal and a 60-year signal, as well as a trend. With each contributing ration of the quasi-periodicity discussed, the trend and the 60-year timescale oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent. (2) It has been noticed that whether on century-scale or 60-year scales, the global temperature tends to descend in the coming 20 years. (3) On quasi 60-year timescale, temperature abrupt changes in China precede those in the global and NH, which provides a denotation for global climate changes. Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years. (4) The dominant contribution of CO2 concentration to global temperature variation is the trend. However, its influence weight on global temperature variation accounts for no more than 40.19%, smaller than those of the natural climate changes on the rest four timescales. Despite the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration, the patterns of 20-year and 60-year oscillation of global temperature are all in falling. Therefore, if CO2 concentration remains constant at present, the CO2 greenhouse effect will be deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate in the following 20 years. Even though the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes.


Global Temperature Empirical Mode Decom Intrinsic Mode Function Northern Hemisphere Temperature Global Temperature Change 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Caldeira, K, Duffy, BP 2000The role of the southern ocean in uptake and storage of anthropogeic carbon dioxideScience287620622CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Etheridge, DM, Pearman, GI, Silva, FD 1988Atmospheric trace-gas variations as revealed by air trapped in an ice core from Law Dome, AntarcticaAnn Glaciol102833Google Scholar
  3. Etheridge, DM, Steele, LP, Langenfelds, RL,  et al. 1996Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firnJ Geophys Res10141154128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Fischer, H, Wahlen, M, Smith, J,  et al. 1999Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminationsScience28317121714CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Hao, JP, Huang, DJ 2001Mirror extending and circular spline functions for Empirical Mode Decomposition methodJ Zhejiang Univ (Sci)2247252CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Houghton JT et al (2001) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, pp 1–94Google Scholar
  7. Huang, NE, Shen, Z, Long, SR,  et al. 1998The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysisProc R Soc Land A454899955CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Huang, NE, Shen, Z, Long, SR 1999A new view of nonlinear water waves: the Hilbert spectrumAnn Rev Fluid Mech31417457CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Jones, PD 1994Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: A reanalysis and an update to 1993J Climate717941802CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Jones, PD, Moberg, A 2003Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001J Climate16206223CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Jones, PD, New, M, Parker, DE,  et al. 1999Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 yearsRev Geophys37173199CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Joos, F, Plattner, G-K, Stocker, TF,  et al. 1999Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2 Science284464467CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Manabe, S, Stouffer, RJ 1993Century-scale effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the ocean-atmosphere systemNature364215218CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Manabe, S, Stouffer, RJ 1994Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxideJ Climate7523CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Michael, ME, Jeffrey, P 1995Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuriesNature378266270CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Morgan, VI, Wookey, CW, Li, J,  et al. 1997Site information and initial results from deep ice drilling on Law DomeJ Glaciol43310Google Scholar
  17. Petit, JR, Jouzel, J, Raynaud, D,  et al. 1999Climate and atmosphere history of the past 420.000 years from the Vostok ice core, AntarcticaNature399429436CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Sarmiento, JL, Quere, CL 1996Oceanic carbon dioxide uptake in a model of century-scale global warmingScience27413461350CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Sarmiento, JL, Hughes, TMC, Stouffer, RJ,  et al. 1998Simulated response of the ocean carbon to anthropogenic climate warmingNature393245249CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Schlesinger, ME, Ramankutty, N 1994An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 yearsNature367723726CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Schneider, T, Held, MI 2001Discriminants of twentieth-century changes in earth surface temperaturesJ Climate14249254CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Siegenthaler, U, Sarmiento, JL 1993Atmosphere carbon dioxide and the oceanNature365119125CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Stauffer, B, Blunier, T, Dällenbach, A,  et al. 1998Atmosphere CO2 concentration and millennial-scale climate change during the last glacial periodNature392429436CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Stott, PA, Kettleborough, JA 2002Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature riseNature416723726CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Wang, SW, Ye, JL, Gong, YD,  et al. 1998Construction of mean annual temperature series for the last one hundred years in ChinaQuart J Appl Meteor19392401Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lin Zhen-Shan
    • 1
  • Sun Xian
    • 1
  1. 1.The School of Geographic SciencesNanjing Normal UniversityNanjingP. R. China

Personalised recommendations