Acta Neurochirurgica

, Volume 160, Issue 8, pp 1643–1652 | Cite as

Development of a statistical model for discrimination of rupture status in posterior communicating artery aneurysms

  • Felicitas J. DetmerEmail author
  • Bong Jae Chung
  • Fernando Mut
  • Michael Pritz
  • Martin Slawski
  • Farid Hamzei-Sichani
  • David Kallmes
  • Christopher Putman
  • Carlos Jimenez
  • Juan R. Cebral
Original Article - Vascular Neurosurgery - Aneurysm
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Vascular Neurosurgery – Aneurysm



Intracranial aneurysms at the posterior communicating artery (PCOM) are known to have high rupture rates compared to other locations. We developed and internally validated a statistical model discriminating between ruptured and unruptured PCOM aneurysms based on hemodynamic and geometric parameters, angio-architectures, and patient age with the objective of its future use for aneurysm risk assessment.


A total of 289 PCOM aneurysms in 272 patients modeled with image-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) were used to construct statistical models using logistic group lasso regression. These models were evaluated with respect to discrimination power and goodness of fit using tenfold nested cross-validation and a split-sample approach to mimic external validation.


The final model retained maximum and minimum wall shear stress (WSS), mean parent artery WSS, maximum and minimum oscillatory shear index, shear concentration index, and aneurysm peak flow velocity, along with aneurysm height and width, bulge location, non-sphericity index, mean Gaussian curvature, angio-architecture type, and patient age. The corresponding area under the curve (AUC) was 0.8359. When omitting data from each of the three largest contributing hospitals in turn, and applying the corresponding model on the left-out data, the AUCs were 0.7507, 0.7081, and 0.5842, respectively.


Statistical models based on a combination of patient age, angio-architecture, hemodynamics, and geometric characteristics can discriminate between ruptured and unruptured PCOM aneurysms with an AUC of 84%. It is important to include data from different hospitals to create models of aneurysm rupture that are valid across hospital populations.


Cerebral aneurysm Posterior communicating artery Hemodynamics Morphology Rupture Prediction 



This study was funded by the National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NIH-NINDS, grant no. R21NS094780).

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards. For this type of study, formal consent is not required.

Supplementary material

701_2018_3595_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (514 kb)
ESM 1 (PDF 514 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Felicitas J. Detmer
    • 1
    Email author
  • Bong Jae Chung
    • 1
  • Fernando Mut
    • 1
  • Michael Pritz
    • 1
    • 2
  • Martin Slawski
    • 3
  • Farid Hamzei-Sichani
    • 4
  • David Kallmes
    • 5
  • Christopher Putman
    • 6
  • Carlos Jimenez
    • 7
  • Juan R. Cebral
    • 1
  1. 1.Bioengineering Department, Volgenau School of EngineeringGeorge Mason UniversityFairfaxUSA
  2. 2.Department of BioengineeringUniversity of UtahSalt Lake CityUSA
  3. 3.Statistics DepartmentGeorge Mason UniversityFairfaxUSA
  4. 4.Department of Neurological SurgeryUniversity of MassachusettsWorcesterUSA
  5. 5.Department of RadiologyMayo ClinicRochesterUSA
  6. 6.Interventional Neuroradiology UnitInova Fairfax HospitalFalls ChurchUSA
  7. 7.Neurosurgery DepartmentUniversity of AntioquiaMedellinColombia

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