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International Journal of Earth Sciences

, Volume 103, Issue 7, pp 2063–2079 | Cite as

Radiative forcing and climate impact resulting from SO2 injections based on a 200,000-year record of Plinian eruptions along the Central American Volcanic Arc

  • D. Metzner
  • S. Kutterolf
  • M. Toohey
  • C. Timmreck
  • U. Niemeier
  • A. Freundt
  • K. KrügerEmail author
Original Paper

Abstract

We present for the first time a self-consistent methodology connecting volcanological field data to global climate model estimates for a regional time series of explosive volcanic events. Using the petrologic method, we estimated SO2 emissions from 36 detected Plinian volcanic eruptions occurring at the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA) during the past 200,000 years. Together with simple parametrized relationships collected from past studies, we derive estimates of global maximum volcanic aerosol optical depth (AOD) and radiative forcing (RF) describing the effect of each eruption on radiation reaching the Earth’s surface. In parallel, AOD and RF time series for selected CAVA eruptions are simulated with the global aerosol model MAECHAM5-HAM, which shows a relationship between stratospheric SO2 injection and maximum global mean AOD that is linear for smaller volcanic eruptions (<5 Mt SO2) and nonlinear for larger ones (≥5 Mt SO2) and is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the relationship used in the simple parametrized approximation. Potential climate impacts of the selected CAVA eruptions are estimated using an earth system model of intermediate complexity by RF time series derived by (1) directly from the global aerosol model and (2) from the simple parametrized approximation assuming a 12-month exponential decay of global AOD. We find that while the maximum AOD and RF values are consistent between the two methods, their temporal evolutions are significantly different. As a result, simulated global maximum temperature anomalies and the duration of the temperature response depend on which RF time series is used, varying between 2 and 3 K and 60 and 90 years for the largest eruption of the CAVA dataset. Comparing the recurrence time of eruptions, based on the CAVA dataset, with the duration of climate impacts, based on the model results, we conclude that cumulative impacts due to successive eruptions are unlikely. The methodology and results presented here can be used to calculate approximate volcanic forcings and potential climate impacts from sulfur emissions, sulfate aerosol or AOD data for any eruption that injects sulfur into the tropical stratosphere.

Keywords

Volcanic eruptions Radiative forcing CAVA Climate Petrologic method 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This publication is contribution no. 204 of the Sonderforschungsbereich 574 “Volatiles and Fluids in Subduction Zones” at Kiel University. For providing the model code of CLIMBER-2 we would like to thank the PIK and Viktor Brovkin (MPI-M) for his helpful assistance with the model set-up. The authors acknowledge stimulating discussion within the MPI-M Super Volcano project. We would also like to thank the 2 anonymous reviewers and the co-editor Ralf Halama for their large effort by carefully reading this manuscript and by giving very helpful comments.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • D. Metzner
    • 1
  • S. Kutterolf
    • 1
  • M. Toohey
    • 1
  • C. Timmreck
    • 2
  • U. Niemeier
    • 2
  • A. Freundt
    • 1
  • K. Krüger
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research KielKielGermany
  2. 2.Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyHamburgGermany

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