International Journal of Earth Sciences

, Volume 99, Issue 8, pp 1721–1730 | Cite as

Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate models

  • Birgit Hünicke
Original Paper


A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by twenty-first century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. The contribution of sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical relationships between sea level as predictand and large-scale climate fields as predictors. Using SLP as predictor for the central and eastern Baltic Sea level stations, three climate models lead to statistically significant twenty-first century future trends in the range of the order of 1–2 mm/year. Using precipitation as predictor for the stations in the southern Baltic coast all five models lead to statistically significant trends with a range of the order of 0.4 mm/year. These numbers are smaller, but of the order of magnitude as the predicted global sea-level rise.


Baltic Sea Regional sea level Climate modelling Statistical downscaling Future trends IPCC AR4 simulations 



This study is part of the German Science Foundation project SINCOS and of the BALTEX program. I acknowledge the international modelling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data. I am grateful to E. Zorita for his help with this manuscript. I thank D. Bray for proof-reading.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute for Coastal ResearchGKSS Research CentreGeesthachtGermany

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