Comparative performance of wavelet-based neural network approaches

Abstract

An agriculture-dominated developing country like India has been always in need of efficient and reliable time series forecasting methodologies to describe various agricultural phenomenons, whereas agricultural price forecasting continue to be the challenging areas in this domain. The observed features of many temporal price data set constitute complex nonlinearity, and modeling these features often go beyond the capability of Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average methodology. Moreover, despite the popularity and sheer power of traditional neural network model, the empirical forecasting performance of this model has not been found satisfactory in all cases. To address the problem, wavelet-based modeling approach is recently upsurging. Present study discusses two wavelet-based neural network approaches envisaging monthly wholesale onion price of three markets, namely Bangalore, Hubli, and Solapur. Wavelet-based decomposition makes it possible to describe the useful pattern of the series from both global as well as local aspects and found to be highly proficient in denoising and capturing the inherent pattern of the series through a distinctive approach. Besides, wavelet method can also be used as a tool for function approximation. The improvement upon time-delay neural network also be made up to a great extent through using wavelet-based approaches as exhibited through proper empirical evidence.