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Prognostication in advanced cancer: update and directions for future research

  • David HuiEmail author
  • Carlos Eduardo Paiva
  • Egidio G. Del Fabbro
  • Christopher Steer
  • Jane Naberhuis
  • Marianne van de Wetering
  • Paz Fernández-Ortega
  • Tatsuya Morita
  • Sang-Yeon Suh
  • Eduardo Bruera
  • Masanori Mori
Review Article
  • 41 Downloads

Abstract

The objective of this review is to provide an update on prognostication in patients with advanced cancer and to discuss future directions for research in this field. Accurate prognostication of survival for patients with advanced cancer is vital, as patient life expectancy informs many important personal and clinical decisions. The most common prognostic approach is clinician prediction of survival (CPS) using temporal, surprise, or probabilistic questions. The surprise and probabilistic questions may be more accurate than the temporal approach, partly by limiting the time frame of prediction. Prognostic models such as the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI), or Prognosis in Palliative Care Study (PiPS) predictor model may augment CPS. However, care must be taken to select the appropriate tool since prognostic accuracy varies by patient population, setting, and time frame of prediction. In addition to life expectancy, patients and caregivers often desire that expected treatment outcomes and bodily changes be communicated to them in a sensible manner at an appropriate time. We propose the following 10 major themes for future prognostication research: (1) enhancing prognostic accuracy, (2) improving reliability and reproducibility of prognosis, (3) identifying the appropriate prognostic tool for a given setting, (4) predicting the risks and benefits of cancer therapies, (5) predicting survival for pediatric populations, (6) translating prognostic knowledge into practice, (7) understanding the impact of prognostic uncertainty, (8) communicating prognosis, (9) clarifying outcomes associated with delivery of prognostic information, and (10) standardizing prognostic terminology.

Keywords

Prognostication Cancer Survival Clinical decision-making 

Notes

Funding information

Dr. Hui was supported in part by National Institutes of Health grants (1R01CA214960-01A1; R21NR016736-01) and an American Cancer Society Mentored Research Scholar Grant in Applied and Clinical Research (MRSG-14-1418-01-CCE).

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Parts of this manuscript were presented at the 2018 Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer Annual Meeting. The authors have full control of all primary data, and grant permission for the journal to review this data, if requested.

Supplementary material

520_2019_4727_MOESM1_ESM.docx (38 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 38 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • David Hui
    • 1
    Email author
  • Carlos Eduardo Paiva
    • 2
  • Egidio G. Del Fabbro
    • 3
  • Christopher Steer
    • 4
    • 5
  • Jane Naberhuis
    • 1
  • Marianne van de Wetering
    • 6
  • Paz Fernández-Ortega
    • 7
  • Tatsuya Morita
    • 8
  • Sang-Yeon Suh
    • 9
  • Eduardo Bruera
    • 1
  • Masanori Mori
    • 8
  1. 1.Department of Palliative Care, Rehabilitation and Integrative MedicineThe University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer CenterHoustonUSA
  2. 2.Department of Clinical OncologyBarretos Cancer HospitalBarretosBrazil
  3. 3.Division of Hematology/Oncology and Palliative Care, Massey Cancer CenterVirginia Commonwealth UniversityRichmondUSA
  4. 4.Border Medical OncologyAlbury Wodonga Regional Cancer CentreAlburyAustralia
  5. 5.UNSW Rural Clinical SchoolAlburyAustralia
  6. 6.Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children’s HospitalAcademic Medical CenterAmsterdamThe Netherlands
  7. 7.Institut Català d’Oncologia – ICONursing University of BarcelonaBarcelonaSpain
  8. 8.Department of Palliative and Supportive Care, Palliative Care Team and Seirei HospiceSeirei Mikatahara General HospitalShizuokaJapan
  9. 9.Department of Family Medicine, Dongguk University Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, South Korea, Department of Medicine, School of MedicineDongguk UniversitySeoulSouth Korea

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