International Journal of Biometeorology

, Volume 57, Issue 4, pp 535–544

Changes in the association between summer temperature and mortality in Seoul, South Korea

Original Paper

Abstract

The health impact of climate change depends on various conditions at any given time and place, as well as on the person. Temporal variations in the relationship between high temperature and mortality need to be explored in depth to explain how changes in the level of exposure and public health interventions modify the temperature–mortality relationship. We examined changes in the relationship between human mortality and temperature in Seoul, which has the highest population in South Korea, considering the change in population structure from 1993–2009. Poisson regression models were used to estimate short-term temperature-related mortality impacts. Temperature-related risks were divided into two “time periods” of approximately equal length (1993 and 1995–2000, and 2001–2009), and were also examined according to early summer and late summer. Temperature-related mortality in summer over the past 17 years has declined. These decreasing patterns were stronger for cardiovascular disease-related mortality than for all non-accidental deaths. The novel finding is that declines in temperature-related mortality were particularly noteworthy in late summer. Our results indicate that temperature-related mortality is decreasing in Seoul, particularly during late summer and, to a lesser extent, during early summer. This information would be useful for detailed public health preparedness for hot weather.

Keywords

High temperature Mortality South Korea Weather 

Supplementary material

484_2012_580_MOESM1_ESM.docx (19 kb)
ESM 1(DOCX 18 kb)

References

  1. Akaike H (1973) Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Petrov BN, Csaki F (eds) Second International Symposium on Information Theory. Akademial Kiado, Budapest, pp 267–281Google Scholar
  2. Anderson RN, Rosenberg HM (1998) Age standardization of death rates: implementation of the year 2000 standard. Natl Vital Stat Rep 47:1–16Google Scholar
  3. Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, Katsouyanni K, Analitis A, Anderson HR, Bisanti L, D'Ippoliti D, Danova J, Forsberg B, Medina S, Paldy A, Rabczenko D, Schindler C, Michelozzi P (2008) Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology 19:711–719Google Scholar
  4. Basu R, Samet JM (2002) Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev 24:190–202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Basu R, Ostro B (2008) Characterizing temperature and mortality in nine California counties. Epidemiology 19:138–145Google Scholar
  6. Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention (1995a) Heat-related illnesses and deaths-United States, 1994–1995. MMWR 44:465–468Google Scholar
  7. Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention (1995b) Heat-related mortality-Chicago, July 1995. MMWR 44:577–579Google Scholar
  8. Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention (1996) Heat-wave-related mortality—Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 1995. MMWR 45:505–507Google Scholar
  9. Chestnut LG, Breffle WS, Smith JB, Kalkstein LS (1998) Analysis of differences in hot-weather-related mortality across 44 U.S. metropolitan areas. Environ Sci Policy 1:59–70Google Scholar
  10. Choi G, Choi J, Kwon H (2005) The impact of high apparent temperature on the increase of summertime disease-related mortality in Seoul: 1991–2000. J Prev Med Public Health 38:283–290Google Scholar
  11. Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Michaels PJ, Novicoff WM (2003a) Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 111:1712–1718Google Scholar
  12. Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Novicoff WM, Michaels PJ(2003b) Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities. Int J Biometeorol 47:166–175Google Scholar
  13. Dominici F, McDermott A, Zeger SL, Samet JM (2002) On the use of generalized additive models in time-series studies of air pollution and health. Am J Epidemiol 156:193–203Google Scholar
  14. Donaldson GC, Keatinge WR, Nayha S (2003) Changes in summer temperature and heat-related mortality since 1971 in North Carolina, South Finland, and southeast England. Environ Res 91:1–7Google Scholar
  15. Gover M (1938) Mortality during periods of excessive temperature. Public Health Rep 53:1122–1143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Guo Y, Barnett AG, Yu W, Pan X, Ye X, et al (2011) A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality. PLoS One 6(2):e16511CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Ha J, Kim H, Hajat S (2011) Effect of previous-winter mortality on the association between summer temperature and mortality in South Korea. Environ Health Perspect 119:542–546Google Scholar
  18. Hajat S, Kovats R, Atkinson R, Haines A (2002) Impact of hot temperatures on death in London: a time series approach. J Epidemiol Community Health 56:367–372Google Scholar
  19. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  21. Kalkstein LS, Greene JS (1997) An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change. Environ Health Perspect 105:84–93CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Kalkstein LS, Smoyer KE (1993) The impact of climate change on human health: some international implications. Experientia 49:969–979CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Keatinge WR, Donaldson GC, Cordioli E, Martinelli M, Kunst AE, Mackenbach JP, Nayha S, Vuori I (2000) Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study. BMJ 321:670–673Google Scholar
  24. Kilbourne EM, Choi K, Jones TS, Thacker SB (1982) Risk factors for heatstroke: a case-control study. JAMA 247:3332–3336Google Scholar
  25. Kim SY, Lee JT, Hong YC, Ahn KJ, Kim H (2004) Determining the threshold effect of ozone on daily mortality: an analysis of ozone and mortality in Seoul, Korea, 1995–1999. Environ Res 94:113–119Google Scholar
  26. Kim H, Ha JS, Park J (2006) High temperature, heat index, and mortality in 6 major cities in South Korea. Arch Environ Occup Heal 61:265–270Google Scholar
  27. Korea National Statistical Office (KNSO) (2005). Specially estimated future population 2005. http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english/
  28. Kovats RS, Hajat S, Wilkinson P (2004) Contrasting patterns of mortality and hospital admissions during hot weather and heat waves in Greater London, UK. Occup Environ Med 61:893–898Google Scholar
  29. Kyselý J, Kim J (2009) Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: how exceptional was the 1994 heat wave? Clim Res 38:105–116CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kyselý J, Kriz B (2008) Decreased impacts of the 2003 heat waves on mortality in the Czech Republic: an improved response? Int J Biometeorol 52:733–745CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. McGeehin MA, Mirabelli M (2001) The potential impact of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 109:185–189CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Meehl GA, Zwiers F, Evans J, Knutson T, Mearns L, Whetto P (2000) Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extreme in projections of future climate change. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:427–436Google Scholar
  33. Ministry of Health and Welfare (MHW) (2010). Korea National Health Accounts and Total Health Expenditure in 2008. http://english.mw.go.kr/
  34. O'Neill MS, Hajat S, Zanobetti A, Ramirez-Aguilar M, Schwartz J (2005) Impact of control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics on the estimated associations of temperature and daily mortality. Int J Biometeorol 50:121–129Google Scholar
  35. Pattenden S, Nikiforov B, Armstrong B (2003) Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London. J Epidemiol Community Health 57:628–633Google Scholar
  36. Plavcova E, Kyselý J (2010) Relationships between sudden weather changes in summer and mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986–2005. Int J Biometeorol 54:539–551CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Rogot E, Sortie PD, Backlund E (1992) Air-conditioning and mortality in hot weather. Am J Epidemiol 136:106–116Google Scholar
  38. Schickele E (1947) Environment and fatal heat stroke: an analysis of 157 cases occurring in the army in the U.S. during World War II. Mil Surg 100:235–256Google Scholar
  39. Seretakis D, Lagiou P, Lipworth L, Signorello LB, Rothman KJ, Trichopoulos D (1997) Changing seasonality of mortality from coronary heart disease. JAMA 278:1012–1014Google Scholar
  40. Son J-Y, Lee J-T, Anderson GB, Bell ML (2012) The impact of heat waves on mortality in 7 major cities in Korea. Environ Health Perspect 120(4). doi:10.1289/ehp.1103759
  41. Stallones RA, Gauld RL, Dodge HJ, Lammers TF (1957) An epidemiological study of heat injury in army recruits. A M A Arch Ind Health 15:455–465Google Scholar
  42. Vaneckova P, Beggs PJ, de Dear RJ, McCracken KW (2008) Effect of temperature on mortality during the six warmer months in Sydney, Australia, between 1993 and 2004. Environ Res 108:361–369Google Scholar
  43. Ye X, Wolff R, Yu W, Vaneckova P, Pan X, Tong S (2011) Ambient temperature and morbidity: a review of epidemiological evidence. Environ Health Perspect 120:19–28Google Scholar
  44. Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2008) Temperature and mortality in nine US cities. Epidemiology 19:563–570CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© ISB 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Korea Environment InstituteSoeulSouth Korea
  2. 2.Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health and the Institute of Health and EnvironmentSeoul National UniversitySeoulSouth Korea

Personalised recommendations