International Journal of Biometeorology

, Volume 55, Issue 3, pp 435–446 | Cite as

Climate-based models for West Nile Culex mosquito vectors in the Northeastern US

  • Hongfei Gong
  • Arthur T. DeGaetano
  • Laura C. Harrington
Original Paper

Abstract

Climate-based models simulating Culex mosquito population abundance in the Northeastern US were developed. Two West Nile vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans, were included in model simulations. The model was optimized by a parameter-space search within biological bounds. Mosquito population dynamics were driven by major environmental factors including temperature, rainfall, evaporation rate and photoperiod. The results show a strong correlation between the timing of early population increases (as early warning of West Nile virus risk) and decreases in late summer. Simulated abundance was highly correlated with actual mosquito capture in New Jersey light traps and validated with field data. This climate-based model simulates the population dynamics of both the adult and immature mosquito life stage of Culex arbovirus vectors in the Northeastern US. It is expected to have direct and practical application for mosquito control and West Nile prevention programs.

Keywords

Climate-based Population model West Nile virus Culex pipiens Culex restuans Mosquito Vector-borne disease control 

Notes

Acknowledgments

Support for this research was provided by grants from Hatch (NYC-139410) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA04OAAR4310184). Rod Schmidt, Tony Aquaviva and Gregory Glass generously provided long-term adult mosquito data.

References

  1. Ahumada JA, Lapointe D, Samuel MD (2004) Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. J Med Entomol 41:1157–1170CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Andreadis T, Thomas MC, Shepard J (2005) Identification guide to the mosquitoes of Connecticut. Conn. Agric Exp Stn 966:1–173Google Scholar
  3. Bell JA, Mickelson NJ, Vaughan JA (2005) West nile virus in host-seeking mosquitoes within a residential neighborhood in Grand Forks, North Dakota. Vector-borne Zoonot 5:373–382CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brown HE, Paladini M, Cook RA, Kline D, Barnard D, Fish D (2008) Effectiveness of mosquito traps in measuring species abundance and composition. J Med Entomol 45:517–521CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. CDC (1999a) From the centers for disease control and prevention. Update: West Nile-like viral encephalitis—New York, 1999. JAMA 282:1714CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. CDC (1999b) Outbreak of west Nile-like viral encephalitis—New York. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 48:845–849Google Scholar
  7. Cooperband MF, Carde RT (2006) Orientation of Culex mosquitoes to carbon dioxide baited traps: flight manoeuvres and trapping efficiency. Med Vet Entomol 20:11–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. DeGaetano AT (2005) Meteorological effects on adult mosquito (Culex) populations in metropolitan New Jersey. Int J Biometeorol 49:345–353CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Derouich M, Boutayeb A, Twizell EH (2003) A model of dengue fever. Biomed Eng Online 2:4CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ebi KL, Mills DM, Smith JB, Grambsch A (2006) Climate change and human health impacts in the United States: an update on the results of the US national assessment. Environ Health Perspect 114:1318–1324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Eisenberg JN, Reisen WK, Spear RC (1995) Dynamic model comparing the bionomics of two isolated Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) populations: model development. J Med Entomol 32:83–97Google Scholar
  12. Esteva L, Vargas C (1999) A model for dengue disease with variable human population. J Math Biol 38:220–240CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Focks DA, Haile DG, Daniels E, Mount GA (1993a) Dynamic life table model of a container-inhabiting mosquito, Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae). Analysis of the literature and model development. J Med Entomol 30:1003–1017Google Scholar
  14. Focks DA, Haile DG, Daniels E, Mount GA (1993b) Dynamic life table model of a container-inhabiting mosquito, Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae). Simulation results and validation. J Med Entomol 30:1018–1028Google Scholar
  15. Focks DA, Daniels E, Haile DG, Keesling JE (1995) A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: literature analysis, model development, preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results. Am J Trop Med Hyg 53:489–506Google Scholar
  16. Gerade BB, Lee SH, Scott TW, Edman JD, Harrington LC, Kitthawee S, Jones JW, Clark JM (2004) Field validation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) age estimation by analysis of cuticular hydrocarbons. J Med Entomol 41:231–238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Harrington LC, Poulson RL (2008) Considerations for accurate identification of adult Culex restuans (Diptera: Culicidae) in field studies. J Med Entomol 45:1–8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Koenraadt CJ, Harrington LC (2008) Flushing effect of rain on container-inhabiting mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae). J Med Entomol 45:28–35CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Krockel U, Rose A, Eiras AE, Geier M (2006) New tools for surveillance of adult yellow fever mosquitoes: comparison of trap catches with human landing rates in an urban environment. J Am Mosq Contr 22:229–238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Kunkel KE, Novak RJ, Lampman RL, Gu W (2006) Modeling the impact of variable climatic factors on the crossover of Culex restuans and Culex pipiens (Diptera: culicidae), vectors of west nile virus in Illinois. Am J Trop Med Hyg 74:168–173Google Scholar
  21. Means RG (1987) Mosquitoes of New York: Part II. Genera of Culicidae other than Aedes occurring in New York, State Education Department, Albany, NYGoogle Scholar
  22. Meeraus WH, Armistead JS, Arias JR (2008) Field comparison of novel and goldstandard traps for collecting Aedes albopictus in northern Virginia. J Am Mosq Contr 24(2):244–248CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Ngwa G (2004) Modelling the dynamics of endemic malaria in growing populations. Dis Cont Dyn Syst Ser B 4:1173–1202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Otero M, Solaril HG, Schweigmann N (2006) Stochastic population dynamics model for Aedes Aegypti: formulation and application to a city with temperate climate. B Math Biol 68:1945–1974CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Reisen WK, Boyce K, Cummings RC, Delgado O, Gutierrez A, Meyer PR, Scott TW (1999) Comparative effectiveness of three adult mosquito sampling methods in habitats representative of four different biomes of California. J Am Mosq Contr 15:24–31Google Scholar
  26. Rueda LM, Patel KJ, Axtell RC, Stinner RE (1990) Temperature-dependent development and survival rates of Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). J Med Entomol 27:892–898Google Scholar
  27. Shaman J, Day JF (2007) Reproductive phase locking of mosquito populations in response to rainfall frequency. PLoS ONE 2:e331CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Shone SM, Curriero FC, Lesser CR, Glass GE (2006) Characterizing population dynamics of Aedes sollicitans (Diptera: Culicidae) using meteorological data. J Med Entomol 43:393–402CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Spielman A (2001) Structure and seasonality of nearctic Culex pipiens populations. Ann NY Acad Sci 951:220–234CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Tan TZ, Lee GKK, Liong SY, Lim TK, Chu J, Hung T (2008) Rainfall intensity prediction by a spatial-temporal ensemble. Neural Networks. 2008 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN 2008), IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence, http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=4634030&isnumber=4633757
  31. Wagner TL, Olson RL, Willer JL (1991) Modeling arthropod development time. J Agr Entomol 8:251–270Google Scholar
  32. Walraven R (1978) Calculating the position of the sun. Sol Energy 20:393–397CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. White DJ (2006) West Nile virus: detection, surveillance, and control. Ann NY Acad Sci 951:74–83CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Wong KY, Yip CL, Li PW (2008) Automatic tropical cyclone eye fix using genetic algorithm. Exp Sys Appl 34:643–656CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Wonham MJ, De-Camino-Beck T, Lewis MA (2004) An epidemiological model for West Nile virus: invasion analysis and control applications. Proc Roy Entomol Soc B 271:501–507CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© ISB 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Hongfei Gong
    • 1
  • Arthur T. DeGaetano
    • 2
  • Laura C. Harrington
    • 1
  1. 1.Entomology DepartmentCornell UniversityIthacaUSA
  2. 2.Earth and Atmospheric Science DepartmentCornell UniversityIthacaUSA

Personalised recommendations