International Journal of Biometeorology

, Volume 54, Issue 5, pp 563–581 | Cite as

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

  • François Lebourgeois
  • Jean-Claude Pierrat
  • Vincent Perez
  • Christian Piedallu
  • Sébastien Cecchini
  • Erwin Ulrich
Original Paper

Abstract

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997–2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March–April and October–November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

Keywords

Phenology Leaf unfolding Leaf coloring Spatial variation Climate change Global circulation model 

Supplementary material

484_2010_305_MOESM1_ESM.doc (26 kb)
Appendix S1Mean characteristics of the 103 stands sampled in the French Permanent Plot Network (Renecofor). Age in years in 1994 ; Dbh diameter at 1.3 m. The values in square brackets indicate the range of the variations for each parameter. Average latitude and longitude (DOC 26 kb)

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Copyright information

© ISB 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • François Lebourgeois
    • 1
  • Jean-Claude Pierrat
    • 1
  • Vincent Perez
    • 1
  • Christian Piedallu
    • 1
  • Sébastien Cecchini
    • 2
  • Erwin Ulrich
    • 2
  1. 1.Laboratoire d’Etude des Ressources Forêt Bois (LERFoB), AgroParisTechENGREFNancyFrance
  2. 2.Département des Recherches TechniquesOffice National des ForêtsFontainebleauFrance

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