International Journal of Biometeorology

, Volume 50, Issue 2, pp 96–104

Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany)

  • Frank M. Chmielewski
  • Antje Müller
  • Wilfried Küchler
Original Article

DOI: 10.1007/s00484-005-0275-1

Cite this article as:
Chmielewski, F.M., Müller, A. & Küchler, W. Int J Biometeorol (2005) 50: 96. doi:10.1007/s00484-005-0275-1

Abstract

Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3–27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.

Keywords

Climate change Climate scenario Impacts Tree phenology Phenological models 

Copyright information

© ISB 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  • Frank M. Chmielewski
    • 1
  • Antje Müller
    • 1
  • Wilfried Küchler
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of Crop Sciences, Subdivision of Agricultural MeteorologyHumboldt University of Berlin, Faculty of Agriculture and HorticultureBerlin-DahlemGermany
  2. 2.Saxony’s State Department for Environment and GeologyDresdenGermany

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