An operational heat/health warning system in shanghai
- 405 Downloads
Previous research has noted that high surface temperatures within certain “offensive” air masses can lead to increased mortality. This study assesses the relationship between daily mortality rates and weather within the city of Shanghai, China, while introducing an operational heat/health warning system for the city. Using numerous meteorological observations, the spatial synoptic classification has been used to classify each summer day from 1989 to 1998 into one of eight air mass types for Shanghai. Through the comparative analysis of the daily air mass type and the corresponding Shanghai mortality rate, “moist tropical plus” (MT+), an extremely hot and humid air mass, was identified as an offensive air mass with the highest rates of mortality. Using stepwise regression, an algorithm was produced to help predict the number of excess deaths that will occur with each occurence of the MT+ airmass. The heat/health warning system was run experimentally in the summer of 2001 and illustrated that the use of a warning system can alert the city’s residents of potentially offensive weather situations that can lead to a deterioration in human health.
Keywords.Heat wave Watch and warning system Spatial synoptic classification Health
This work was supported by the WMO and WHO Showcase Project. We thank Dr. Paul Lianso (WMO), Dr. Carlos Corvalan (WHO) and Dr. Steve Tamplin (WPRO, WHO) for their excellent contribution to this project. We also thank Dr. Scott Sheridan for his cooperation while carrying out research at the University of Delaware.
- He Q, He Z, Zhen Y (1990) An investigation about the impact of heat wave on human health in hot area (in Chinese). J Environ Health 7:206–211Google Scholar
- IPCC (1995) Assessing the health impacts of climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts Assessment. WMO/UNEP, Geneva, SwitzerlandGoogle Scholar
- Kalkstein LS (1998) Activities with Study Group 6 of the International Society of Biometeorology, Int J Biometeorol 42:8–9Google Scholar
- Kalkstein LS, Nichols MC, Barthel CD (1996a) A new spatial synoptic classification: application to air mass analysis. Int J Climatol l16:983–1004Google Scholar
- Steadman RG (1979) The assessment of sultriness. Part II. Effect of wind, extra radiation, and barometric pressure on apparent temperature. J Appl Meteorol 18:874–884Google Scholar
- Sun LY, Ren J, Xu SZ (1994) The impact of heat wave on mortality of residents in hot area (in Chinese). Meteorol Mon 20:54–57Google Scholar
- Yang HQ, Chen ZH, Liu JA, et al (2000) Epidemiological analysis on heat invasion and establishment of its statistical forecast model in Wuhan (in Chinese). J Hubei Coll Trad Chinese Med 2:51–52, 62Google Scholar