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Quantifying the added value of climate information in a spatio-temporal dengue model

  • Rachel LoweEmail author
  • Bernard Cazelles
  • Richard Paul
  • Xavier Rodó
Original Paper

Abstract

Dengue is the world’s most important vector-borne viral disease. The dengue mosquito and virus are sensitive to climate variability and change. Temperature, humidity and precipitation influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat, and the virus replication speed. In this study, we develop a modelling procedure to quantify the added value of including climate information in a dengue model for the 76 provinces of Thailand, from 1982–2013. We first developed a seasonal-spatial model, to account for dependency structures from 1 month to the next and between provinces. We then tested precipitation and temperature variables at varying time lags, using linear and nonlinear functional forms, to determine an optimum combination of time lags to describe dengue relative risk. Model parameters were estimated using integrated nested Laplace approximation. This approach provides a novel opportunity to perform model selection in a Bayesian framework, while accounting for underlying spatial and temporal dependency structures and linear or nonlinear functional forms. We quantified the additional variation explained by interannual climate variations, above that provided by the seasonal-spatial model. Overall, an additional 8 % of the variance in dengue relative risk can be explained by accounting for interannual variations in precipitation and temperature in the previous month. The inclusion of nonlinear functions of climate in the model framework improved the model for 79 % of the provinces. Therefore, climate forecast information could significantly contribute to a national dengue early warning system in Thailand.

Keywords

Dengue Climate Spatio-temporal model Random effects Nonlinear 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The research leading to these results has received funding from the DENFREE project (Grant Agreement No. 282378) funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme. RL is grateful to the STEPHI project, Daniel Simpson and Harvard Rue for valuable training and technical support in using the R-INLA package.

Conflict of interest

We declare no competing interests.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Rachel Lowe
    • 1
    Email author
  • Bernard Cazelles
    • 2
    • 3
  • Richard Paul
    • 4
    • 5
  • Xavier Rodó
    • 1
    • 6
  1. 1.Climate Dynamics and Impacts UnitInstitut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3)BarcelonaSpain
  2. 2.Unité de Modélisation Mathématique et Informatique des Systèmes ComplexesUniversité Pierre et Marie CurieParis Cedex 06France
  3. 3.Ecole Normale Supérieure, IBENS UMR 8197Eco-Evolution MathématiqueParis Cedex 05France
  4. 4.Institut PasteurUnité de la Génétique Fonctionnelle des Maladies InfectieusesParis Cedex 15France
  5. 5.Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueUnité de Recherche Associée 3012Paris Cedex 15France
  6. 6.Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA)BarcelonaSpain

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