Bulletin of Volcanology

, Volume 74, Issue 2, pp 497–510 | Cite as

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy

  • Jacopo Selva
  • Giovanni Orsi
  • Mauro Antonio Di Vito
  • Warner Marzocchi
  • Laura Sandri
Research Article

Abstract

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.

Keywords

Volcanic hazards assessment Campi Flegrei Vent opening probability map Bayesian inference 

Supplementary material

445_2011_528_MOESM1_ESM.xls (170 kb)
Table 1Best guess value (average), and confidence interval (10th, 50th and 90th percentiles), of the conditional probability of vent opening at Campi Flegrei at each SA, for the prior model (columns 2 to 5), the posterior model (columns 6 to 9) and the filtered posterior model (columns 10 to 13). (XLS 169 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jacopo Selva
    • 1
  • Giovanni Orsi
    • 2
  • Mauro Antonio Di Vito
    • 2
  • Warner Marzocchi
    • 3
  • Laura Sandri
    • 1
  1. 1.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di BolognaBolognaItaly
  2. 2.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio VesuvianoNaplesItaly
  3. 3.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma 1RomeItaly

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