Bulletin of Volcanology

, 71:259

Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

  • A. Costa
  • F. Dell’Erba
  • M. A. Di Vito
  • R. Isaia
  • G. Macedonio
  • G. Orsi
  • T. Pfeiffer
Research Article

DOI: 10.1007/s00445-008-0220-3

Cite this article as:
Costa, A., Dell’Erba, F., Di Vito, M.A. et al. Bull Volcanol (2009) 71: 259. doi:10.1007/s00445-008-0220-3

Abstract

Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m2. These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.

Keywords

Tephra fallout hazard Tephra loading Campi Flegrei caldera 

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. Costa
    • 1
  • F. Dell’Erba
    • 1
  • M. A. Di Vito
    • 1
  • R. Isaia
    • 1
  • G. Macedonio
    • 1
  • G. Orsi
    • 1
  • T. Pfeiffer
    • 1
  1. 1.Osservatorio Vesuviano, NapoliIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaNaplesItaly

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