Bulletin of Volcanology

, 71:259 | Cite as

Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

  • A. Costa
  • F. Dell’Erba
  • M. A. Di Vito
  • R. Isaia
  • G. Macedonio
  • G. Orsi
  • T. Pfeiffer
Research Article

Abstract

Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m2. These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.

Keywords

Tephra fallout hazard Tephra loading Campi Flegrei caldera 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. Costa
    • 1
  • F. Dell’Erba
    • 1
  • M. A. Di Vito
    • 1
  • R. Isaia
    • 1
  • G. Macedonio
    • 1
  • G. Orsi
    • 1
  • T. Pfeiffer
    • 1
  1. 1.Osservatorio Vesuviano, NapoliIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaNaplesItaly

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