BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting
The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET_EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting; therefore, it can be useful in many practical aspects such as land use planning and volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application for the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
KeywordsEruption forecasting Long- and short-term volcanic hazard Bayesian inference Event tree Fuzzy sets Software MESIMEX
This work was funded by the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the frame of the 2004–2006 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale de Geofisica e Vulcanologia-INGV.
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