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Oecologia

, Volume 112, Issue 4, pp 518–523 | Cite as

Testing for density dependence allowing for weather effects

  • Peter Rothery
  • Ian Newton
  • Lois Dale
  • Tomasz Wesolowski
Article

Abstract

A test for density dependence in time-series data allowing for weather effects is presented. The test is based on a discrete time autoregressive model for changes in population density with a covariate for the effects of weather. The distribution of the test statistic on the null hypothesis of density independence is obtained by parametric bootstrapping. A computer simulation exercise is used to demonstrate the gain in statistical power by allowing for weather effects. Application of the method to time-series data on three species of butterflies and two species of songbirds showed stronger evidence of density dependence than two standard tests.

Key words Density dependence Weather effects Autoregressive model Statistical power Butterfly and songbird populations 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  • Peter Rothery
    • 1
  • Ian Newton
    • 1
  • Lois Dale
    • 1
  • Tomasz Wesolowski
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Monks Wood, Abbots Ripton, Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, PE17 2LS, UK Fax: +44 (0) 1487 773 487GB
  2. 2.Department of Avian Ecology, Wroclaw University, Sienkiewicza 21, 50 335 Wroclaw, PolandPL

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