Oecologia

, Volume 142, Issue 1, pp 117–126 | Cite as

Population resistance to climate change: modelling the effects of low recruitment in open populations

  • Carl Johan Svensson
  • Stuart R. Jenkins
  • Stephen J. Hawkins
  • Per Åberg
Global Change Ecology

Abstract

Isolated populations or those at the edge of their distribution are usually more sensitive to changes in the environment, such as climate change. For the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides (L.), one possible effect of climate change is that unpredictable spring weather could lead to the mismatching of larval release with spring phytoplankton bloom, hence reducing the recruitment. In this paper, model simulations of a variable open population with space limited recruitment were used to investigate the effects of low and zero recruitment on population abundance in S. balanoides. Data for model parameters was taken from an isolated population in the Isle of Man, British Isles. Model simulations with observed frequencies of years with low recruitment showed only small changes in population dynamics. Increased frequencies of low recruitment had large effects on the variation in population growth rate and free space and on population structure. Furthermore, populations with intermediate to high frequencies of low recruitment appeared more sensitive to additional changes in recruitment. Exchanging low recruitment with zero recruitment severely increased the risk of local extinctions. Simulations with consecutive years of low recruitment showed a substantial increase in free space and an increase in the time taken to recover to normal densities. In conclusion, model simulations indicate that variable populations can be well buffered to changes in the demography caused by introduced environmental noise, but also, that intermediate to high frequencies of disturbance can lead to a swift change in population dynamics, which in turn, may affect the dynamics of whole communities.

Keywords

Environmental variability Temperature increase Phytoplankton bloom Free space Community structure 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This study was performed as a part of the project EUMAR (EU EVK3-CT-2001-00048). Data were attained from EUROROCK (EU MAS3-CT95-0012) and we would like to thank Pedro Range for analysing the photographs.

References

  1. Åberg P (1992) A demographic study of two populations of the seaweed Ascophyllum nodusum. Ecology 73:1473–1487Google Scholar
  2. Barnes H (1953) The effect of lowered salinity on some barnacle nauplii. J Anim Ecol 22:328–330Google Scholar
  3. Barnes H (1956) Balanus balanoides (L.) in the Firth of Clyde: the development and annual variation of the larval population, and the causative factors. J Anim Ecol 25:72–84Google Scholar
  4. Barnes H (1957a) The Northern limits of Balanus balanoides (L.). Oikos 8:1–15Google Scholar
  5. Barnes H (1957b) Processes of restoration and synchronisation in marine ecology. The spring diatom outburst and the “spawning” of the common barnacle Balanus balanoides (L.). Ann Biol 33:67–85Google Scholar
  6. Barnes H (1958) The Southern limits of Balanus balanoides (L.). Oikos 9:139–157Google Scholar
  7. Barnes H (1962) Notes on variations in the release of nauplii of Balanus balanoides with special reference to the spring diatom outburst. Crustaceana 4:118–122Google Scholar
  8. Barnes H (1963) Light, temperature and the breeding of Balanus balanoides. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 43:213–223Google Scholar
  9. Barnes H, Barnes M (1965) Egg size, nauplius size, and their variation with local, geographical, and specific factors in some common cirripedes. J Anim Ecol 34:391–402Google Scholar
  10. Beaugrand G, Reid PC (2003) Long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climate. Global Change Biol 9:801–817CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Beaugrand G, Reid PC, Ibanes F, Lindley JA, Edwards M (2002) Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. Science 296:1692–1694CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  12. Belgrano A, Lindahl O, Hernroth B (1998) North Atlantic Oscillation primary productivity and toxic phytoplankton in the Gullmar Fjord, Sweden (1985–1996). Proc R Soc London 266:425–430CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Caley MJ, Hughes TP, Jones GP, Carr MH, Hixon MA, Menge BA (1996) Recruitment and the local dynamics of open marine populations. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 27:477–500CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Caswell H (2000) Matrix Population Models, 2nd edn. Sinauer Associates, SunderlandGoogle Scholar
  15. Clarke A, Harris CM (2003) Polar marine ecosystems: major threats and future change. Environ Conserv 30:1–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Cohen JE (1987) Stochastic demography. Enc Stat Sci 8:789–801Google Scholar
  17. Connell JH (1961) Effects of competition, predation by Thais lapillus, and other factors on natural populations of the barnacle, Balanus balanoides (L.). Ecol Monogr 31:61–104Google Scholar
  18. Crisp DJ, Clegg DJ (1960) The induction of the breeding condition in Balanus balanoides (L.). Oikos 11:265–276Google Scholar
  19. Crisp DJ, Southward AJ (1958) The distribution of intertidal organisms along the coasts of the English Channel. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 37:157–208Google Scholar
  20. Cushing DH (1990) Plankton production and year-class strength in fish populations—an update of the match mismatch hypothesis. Adv Mar Biol 26:249–293Google Scholar
  21. Dippner JW (1997) Recruitment success of different fish stocks in the North Sea in relation to climate variability. Dtsch Hydrograph Z 49:277–293Google Scholar
  22. Edwards M, Beugrand G, Reid PC, Ashley AR, Jones MB (2002) Ocean climate anomalies and the ecology of the North Sea. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 239:1–10Google Scholar
  23. Fromentin J-M, Planque B (1996) Calanus and environment in the North Atlantic. II. Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on C. finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 134:111–118Google Scholar
  24. Hartnoll RG, Hawkins SJ (1985) Patchiness and fluctuations on moderately exposed shores. Ophelia 24:53–64Google Scholar
  25. Hawkins SJ (1983) Interactions of patella and macroalgae with settling Semibalanus balanoides. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 71:55–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Hawkins SJ, Hartnoll RG (1982) Settlement patterns of Balanus balanoides (L.) in the Isle of Man (1977–1981). J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 62:271–283CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Hawkins SJ, Hartnoll RG, Kain JM, Norton TA (1992) Plant-animal interactions on hard substrata in the north-east Atlantic. In: John DM, Hawkins SJ, Price JH (eds) Plant–animal interactions in the marine benthos. Clarendon Press, Oxford, p 570Google Scholar
  28. Heyde CC, Cohen JE (1985) Confidence intervals for demographic projections based on products of random matrices. Theor Popul Biol 27:120–153PubMedGoogle Scholar
  29. Hills JM, Thomason JC (2003) The ‘ghost of settlement past determines mortality and fecundity in the barnacle, Semibalanus balanoides. Oikos 101:529–538CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Hills JM, Thomason JC, Milligan JL, Richardson M (1998) Do barnacle larvae respond to multiple settlement cues over a range of spatial scales. Hydrobiologia 375/376:101–111CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Hodkinson ID (1999) Species response to global environmental change or why ecophysiological models are important: a reply to Davis et al. J Anim Ecol 68:1259–1262CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Hughes TP, Baird AH, Dinsdale EA, Moltschaniwskyj NA, Pratchett MS, Tanner JE, Willis BL (2000) Supply-side ecology works both ways: the link between benthic adults, fecundity, and larval recruits. Ecology 81:2241–2249Google Scholar
  33. Hyder K, Åberg P, Johnson MP, Hawkins SJ (2001) Models of open populations with space limited recruitment: extension of theory and application to the barnacle Chthamalus montagui. J Anim Ecol 70:853–863CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Jenkins SR, Hawkins SJ (2003) Barnacle larval supply to sheltered rocky shores: a limiting factor? Hydrobiologia 503:143–151CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Jenkins SR, Norton TA, Hawkins SJ (1999) Settlement and post-settlement interactions between Semibalanus balanoides (L.) (Crustacea: Cirripedia) and three species of fucoid canopy algae. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 236:49–67CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Jenkins SR, Åberg P, Cervin G, Coleman RA, Delany J, Della Santina P, Hawkins SJ, LaCroix E, Myers AA, Lindegarth M, Power AM, Roberts MF, Hartnoll RG (2000) Spatial and temporal variation in settlement and recruitment of the intertidal barnacle Semibalanus balanoides (L.) (Crustacea: Cirripedia) over a European scale. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 243:209–225CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Jenkins SR, Åberg P, Cervin G, Coleman RA, Delany J, Hawkins SJ, Hyder K, Myers AA, Paula J, Power AM, Range P, Hartnoll RG (2001) Population dynamics of the intertidal barnacle Semibalanus balanoides at three European locations: spatial scales of variability. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 217:207–217Google Scholar
  38. Kaitala V, Ranta E (2001) Is the impact of environmental noise visible in the dynamics of age-structured populations? Proc R Soc London 268:1769–1774CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Kendall ME, Bowman RS, Williamson P, Lewis JR (1982) Settlement patterns, density and stability in the barnacle Balanus balanoides. Neth J Sea Res 16:119–126CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Kendall ME, Bowman RS, Williamson P, Lewis JR (1985) Annual variation in the recruitment of Semibalanus balanoides on the North Yorkshire coast. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 65:1009–1030Google Scholar
  41. King PA, McGrath D, Morgan R, Fitzgerald O, Mullins P, Raleigh J (1993) Reproduction and settlement of the barnacle Semibalanus Balnoides (L.) in Galway Bay. Proc R Ir Acad 93B:5–12Google Scholar
  42. Knight-Jones EW (1953) Laboratory experiments on gregariousness during settling in Balanus balanoides and other barnacles. J Exp Biol 30:584–598Google Scholar
  43. Kröncke I, Dippner JW, Heyen H, Zeiss B (1998) Long-term changes in macrofaunal communities off Norderney (East Frisia, Germany) in relation to climate variability. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 167:25–36Google Scholar
  44. Lande R (1993) Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. Am Nat 142:911–927CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Lewis JR, Bowman RS (1975) Local habitat induced variations in the population dynamics of Patella vulgata (L). J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 17:165–203CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Lewis JR, Bowman RS, Kendall MA, Williamson PA (1982) Some geographical components in population dynamics: possibilities and realities in some littoral species. Neth J Sea Res 16:18–28CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Lindley JA, Reid PC (2002) Variations in the abundance of Centropages typicus and Calanus helgolandicus in the North Sea: deviations from close relationships with temperature. Mar Biol 141:153–165CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Lundberg P, Ranta E, Ripa J, Kaitala V (2000) Population viability in space and time. Trends Ecol Evol 15:460–464CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  49. Menge BA (2000) Recruitment vs. postrecruitment processes as determinants of barnacle population abundance. Ecol Monogr 70:265–288Google Scholar
  50. Minchinton TE, Scheibling RE (1991) The influence of larval supply and settlement on the population structure of barnacles. Ecology 72:1867–1879Google Scholar
  51. Muko S, Sakai K, Iwasa Y (2001) Size distribution dynamics for a marine sessile organism with space limited recruitment: application to a coral population. J Anim Ecol 70:579–589CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Nakaoka M (1996) Dynamics of age- and size-structured populations in fluctuating environments: applications of stochastic matrix models to natural populations. Res Popul Ecol 38:141–152Google Scholar
  53. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  54. Reid PC, Holliday NP, Smyth TJ (2001) Pulses in the eastern margin current and warmer water off the north west European shelf linked to North Sea ecosystem changes. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 215:283–287Google Scholar
  55. Ripa J, Lundberg P (1996) Noise colour and the risk of population extinctions. Proc R Soc London Ser B 263:1751–1753Google Scholar
  56. Ripa J, Lundberg P (2000) The route to extinction in variable environments. Oikos 90:89–96Google Scholar
  57. Southward AJ (1953) The ecology of some rocky shores in the south of the Isle of Man. Proc Trans Liverpool Biol Soc 59:1–50Google Scholar
  58. Southward AJ (1967) Recent changes in the abundance of intertidal barnacles in southwest England, a possible effect of climate deterioration. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 47:81–95Google Scholar
  59. Southward AJ (1991) Forty years of changes in species composition and population-density of barnacles on a rocky shore near Plymouth. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 71:495–523Google Scholar
  60. Svensson CJ, Jenkins SR, Hawkins SJ, Myers AA, Range P, Paula J, O’Riordan R, Åberg P (2004) Models of open populations with space-limited recruitment in stochastic environments: the relative importance of recruitment and survival in populations of Semibalanus balanoides. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 275:185–197Google Scholar
  61. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC,Erasmus BFN, de Siqueira MF, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, van Jaarsveld AS, Midgley GF, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Peterson AT, Philips OL, Williams SE (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–148CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  62. Thorson G (1950) Reproduction and larval ecology of marine bottom invertebrates. Biol Rev 25:1–45CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Tilman D, Lehman C (2001) Human-caused environmental change: Impacts on plant diversity and evolution. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 98:5433–5440CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Tuljapurkar SD (1990) Population dynamics in variable environments. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New YorkGoogle Scholar
  65. Tuljapurkar SD, Caswell H (1997) Structured population models in marine, terrestrial and freshwater systems, 1st edn. Chapman and Hall, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  66. Tunberg BG, Nelson WG (1998) Do climatic oscillation influence cyclical patterns of soft bottom macrobenthic communities on the Swedish west coast? Mar Ecol Progr Ser 170:85–94Google Scholar
  67. Vitousek PM (1994) Beyond global warming: ecology and global change. Ecology 75:1861–1876Google Scholar
  68. Weaver AJ, Eby M, Wiebe EC, Bitz CM, Duffy PB, Ewen TL, Fanning AF, Holland MM, Macfadyen A, Matthews HD, Meissner KJ, Saenko O, Scmittner A, Wang HX, Yoshimori M (2001) Yhe UVic system model: model description, climatology, and appplications to past, present and future climates. Atmosphere-Ocean 39:361–428Google Scholar
  69. Wetherald RT, Stouffer RJ, Dixon KW (2001) Committed warming and implications for climate change. Geophys Res Lett 28:1535–1538CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Carl Johan Svensson
    • 1
  • Stuart R. Jenkins
    • 2
  • Stephen J. Hawkins
    • 2
  • Per Åberg
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Marine EcologyGöteborg UniversityGöteborgSweden
  2. 2.Marine Biological AssociationPlymouthUK

Personalised recommendations